Gale Warning 281, NWS Juneau, AK

441 
FZAK51 PAJK 292025 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-300330-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A gale force front moves into the eastern Gulf of Alaska on
Monday. Another front and low center will move NE over  the
panhandle on Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ011-300330-
Glacier Bay-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. Snow.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain and snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-300330-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft late. Snow in the
evening. 
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-300330-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow with rain in the 
evening. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-300330-
Icy Strait-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain with snow in the
evening. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-300330-
Cross Sound-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 10 ft.
Rain and snow in the evening. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-300330-
Stephens Passage-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...


.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 15 kt except SE 30 kt near Youngs Bay. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt except SE 30 kt near Youngs Bay becoming 
NE late. Seas 4 ft. Snow in the evening. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-300330-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 20 kt except 25 near Hawk Inlet. Seas 4 
ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-300330-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 20 kt in the morning. Gusts to 40
kt near the ocean entrance in the afternoon Seas 4 ft. Near ocean
entrances, seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NE late. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 7 
ft, except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft, except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 16 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-300330-
Frederick Sound-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NE late. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-300330-
Sumner Strait-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain and 
snow. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E late. Gusts to 35 kt late. 
Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 
40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
11 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-300330-
Clarence Strait-
1125 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021


.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to
5 ft, except 7 ft near the ocean entrance. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 15 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Monday night / The weather for Sunday
into Sunday night is snow showers rolling off the Gulf of Alaska
and into SE AK. Continued winter weather advisory for the
northeast gulf coast and across much of the northern panhandle for
tonight.

A weak ridge of high pressure keeps the southern panhandle on the
dry side this evening, the high moves into British Columbia by
early Monday. An occluded weather front will move east-northeast
across gulf to the panhandle Monday afternoon starting to bring
precipitation into Southwest Panhandle. Snow or a mix switching to
rain for the southern panhandle and then more organized light snow
for the north central panhandle, with the potential to become a
mixed rain/snow for the Icy Strait corridor.

As the front approaches the outside waters bringing gale force
winds Monday afternoon and Monday night as a new wave starts to
move into the Southeastern gulf late Monday night.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday as of 4 PM Sunday/ A mean
trough with an associated surface low pressure centers itself
over the Gulf through the long term period. Through the period
multiple lows spin up in the gulf bringing consecutive waves of
precipitation, some more impressive then others. Tuesday, a
strengthening low swings up into the SE gulf bringing with it a
high end gale force front (winds 35-45 kt). This low will lift N
through the day before dissipating over the central panhandle.
This system looks to have decent warm air advection associated
with it, leading to surface temperatures to warm above freezing
across most of the panhandle. Across the south precipitation will
be rain, but across the north precip is expected to start as snow
before changing to rain. Current thinking is that snow
accumulations between 2-4 inches are possible across the far
north with lesser amounts through the north central.

Wednesday turns to more of a shower pattern before yet another
wave enhancement moves through the southern panhandle. This
enhancements looks to bring more rain as temperatures will still
be above freezing. By Wednesday evening, strong cold air
advection moves into the panhandle from the gulf putting SEAK
under a snow shower pattern once again. This time, temperatures
across the entire panhandle could fall below freezing, letting
everyone play in the snow late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Towards the end of the week, confidence drops significantly has
models struggle to place a new low in the gulf. The GFS/CAN have a
drying trend in place for the weekend while the EC brings in a
storm across the NE gulf. One area where agreement is better, is
on cooling 850mb temperatures through the weekend. Today, MOS back
off on such extreme cold temperatures for the weekend so decided
to follow suit and nudge temps back up slightly.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKST Monday for AKZ017-020-
     022-023-025.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-033-035-036-053.

&&

Bezenek/CC

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