Small Craft Advisory 582, NWS Juneau, AK

491 
FZAK52 PAJK 290009
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
309 PM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-291815-
309 PM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure center near Prince William Sound dissipates Sunday
night. A gale force front moves into the eastern Gulf of Alaska 
on Monday. Outlook. A strong gale force low will move into the 
southeast gulf Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-291815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
309 PM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain in the 
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt late.
Seas 12 ft. Rain late. 
.TUE...SW gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-291815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
309 PM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming E late. Seas 12 ft. Rain
late. 
.TUE...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-291815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
309 PM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 13 ft late. Rain late. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-291815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
309 PM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Snow in the
morning. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 14 ft
late. SW swell late. Snow in the evening. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-291815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
309 PM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE late. Seas 13 ft subsiding
to 9 ft late. 
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 20 ft in the
afternoon. Snow. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas
21 ft subsiding to 15 ft late. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKST Sat Nov 27 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Sunday night / Saturdays low moving
inland over the southcentral panhandle with rain spreading north
to roughly southern Admiralty Island this evening. The low then
continues to weaken and dissipate. Cooler air works its way back
in off the gulf of Alaska. Can see shower-like band or open cells
in the western gulf (west of 140 as of this evening) on satellite
imagery that will continue eastward.

A second weak low is persisting near Middleton Island and this
will try to keep the showers going or getting restarted over the
northeast gulf coast this evening. Snowfall accumulations 1 to 3
inches for 12 our block through Sunday night. Snow was not
falling that heavy in Hyder so will cancel the Winter Weather
Advisory for the Misty Fjords early. A few more inches will fall
Saturday evening but not enough for the advisory.

Brief gusty winds for Prince of Wales Island Saturday evening
with the low and front moving through but becoming westerly and
weakening to 20 kt and gusts to 25 mph for the mid evening.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday as of 4 PM Saturday/ A
strong storm moves into the Gulf Monday through Tuesday.
This system brings with it strong gales to low end storm force
winds through the gulf, as well as, the potential for heavy snow
across the north and heavy rain across the south. Current thinking
is that temperatures will stay cool to keep things all snow across
the north. The question is how well will the cold air remain over
the north central panhandle before the southerly flow warms
temperatures above freezing. Accumulating snow is likely across
the northern and central panhandle but rates should be on the
slower side has this system looks to have limited moisture
support. Due to this, issuing any winter products have been held
off as accumulations look to remain below criteria.

By Tuesday, a second low spins around the parent low and pushes
onshore from the south. This system looks to have better moisture
support allowing for higher precipitation amounts. The main focus
on this system is the track. Cooler temperatures will be in place
north of the low, so areas that find themselves just north of the
precipitation bands could see decent snow accumulations. Model
agreement is struggling to resolve the longterm weather pattern so
trying to focast the exact track and timing of each low that forms
is challenging.

Signals are suggesting that colder temperatures could be on the
way for the end of next week as an arctic front pushes south.
Incorporated this into the forecast for Friday and Saturday.
Overall though the pattern through the long term remains wetter
and cooler. As upper level troughing persists over the Gulf
bringing multiple waves of precipitation.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ027-028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-035-036-042-043-051>053.

&&

Bezenek/CC

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