Small Craft Advisory 573, NWS Juneau, AK

350 
FZAK51 PAJK 241827 CCA 
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-250430-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A gale-force low pressure system in the Gulf tracks  towards the
NE Gulf coast through Wednesday. The associated front passes
over the panhandle Wednesday. A second low pressure system
enters the Gulf Wednesday evening. 

$$

PKZ011-250430-
Glacier Bay-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain and snow. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less. Rain and snow. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-250430-
Northern Lynn Canal-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Snow, rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE late. Seas 3 ft in the
evening then 2 ft or less. Rain and snow. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-250430-
Southern Lynn Canal-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-250430-
Icy Strait-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ022-250430-
Cross Sound-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 8 ft. SE swell.
Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
SE swell. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 7 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-250430-
Stephens Passage-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ032-250430-
Northern Chatham Strait-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ033-250430-
Southern Chatham Strait-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft, except 15 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming 25 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt in 
the evening. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft, except 16 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft,
except 17 ft near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-250430-
Frederick Sound-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior passes. Seas 7 ft 
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ035-250430-
Sumner Strait-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing late. Gusts to 40 kt in the 
evening. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft,
except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-250430-
Clarence Strait-
927 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE gale 35 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 15 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 12 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

999 
FZAK51 PAJK 242120
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-250445-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A gale-force low pressure system in the Gulf tracks  towards the
NE Gulf coast through Wednesday. The associated front passes
over the panhandle Wednesday. A second low pressure system
enters the Gulf Wednesday evening. 

$$

PKZ011-250445-
Glacier Bay-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain and snow. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less. Rain and snow. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-250445-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE late. Seas 3 ft in the
evening then 2 ft or less. Rain and snow. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-250445-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-250445-
Icy Strait-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ022-250445-
Cross Sound-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 8 ft. SE swell.
Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
SE swell. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 7 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-250445-
Stephens Passage-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ032-250445-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ033-250445-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt then increasing
to 25 kt late tonight. Seas 5 ft, except 15 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming 25 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt in 
the evening. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft, except 16 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft,
except 17 ft near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-250445-
Frederick Sound-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior passes. Seas 7 ft 
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ035-250445-
Sumner Strait-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing late. Gusts to 40 kt in the 
evening. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft,
except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-250445-
Clarence Strait-
1220 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE gale 35 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 15 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 12 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
532 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Wednesday night/...A gale-force
low associated with an atmospheric river to the south has moved
into the Gulf this morning with buoy 46083 reporting 37 kt winds
and gusts to 45 kt and reports of over a half an inch of rainfall
in Klawock and Ketchikan. Tonight a second low develops with a
second round of enhanced precipitation and winds.

A Winter Storm Warning for Skagway and Haines remains until 6 AM
Thursday. With breezy conditions picking up this afternoon in
Northern Lynn, expect lower snowfall rates and a warming trend in
temperatures that may change snow to a mix in Skagway this
evening, before transition back over to all snow. A Winter Weather
Advisory expires at noon today in Juneau, with 1 to 3 inches
falling overnight so far. A changeover from a mix to rain is
expected to occur late morning.

A High Wind Warning is in effect from 9 AM through 6 PM today for
Ketchikan, Prince of Wale, and surrounding areas with gusts up to
60 mph and areas reporting gusts to 50 mph early this morning.
Expected breezy conditions in those areas through Thursday. The
Strong wind headline remains this morning for Sitka and Port
Alexander, with gusts up to 45 mph and areas reporting gusts to
near 40 mph this morning. A second Strong wind headline for Port
Alexander is in effect from 3 PM today through 9 PM this evening
with gusts to around 45 mph.

Changes to the forecast included warming some areas including
Gustavus, which was reporting rainfall and temperatures of 39
degrees early this morning. Added in some details to the winds,
but limited changes to the overall forecast.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/ Upper level low over the AK
interior and extending down into the AK Gulf for the start of the
mid range will shift to the NE through the weekend with ridging
building over the gulf. A developing low now expected to move up
from the Pacific on Thursday. This will bring another round of
winds to the southern panhandle along with more precipitation to
the central and northern areas. As this low moves over the
panhandle and into the Yukon onshore flow generated by a low near
Prince William Sound will keep shower activity for most of the
region. Saturday into Sunday yet another low moves up from the N
Pacific but this has a more southerly track, which indicated drier
conditions for northern half of the panhandle with potential for
heavy precip for the south along with increased winds.

Timing of colder air moving in will be a determining factor in
precip type for Thursday evening. 850 mb temps dropping from -2 to
+2 C to -8 to -10 C within about 12 hours. This cold air
advection will shift rain back to snow showers. As of now think
the heaviest precip will occur before this warm up but do have
potential for an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow for Thursday
night into Friday. Places of concern for snow fall are Juneau,
Gustavus, Haines, and Yakutat. However as precip will be
convective in nature expect amounts to be highly variable.

For the Saturday into Sunday system moderate to heavy rain fall
with warm mid level air for the Southern panhandle. Higher IVT
from an atmospheric river just tagging our area but mainly hitting
southern British Columbia and NW CONUS. Offshore flow pattern
development getting the northern areas drier and colder with
increased northerly and outflow winds.

Low confidence on details for this weather pattern. Getting
enough shifts in pressure patterns from model run to run that
have significant impact on practical weather. Timing of
temperature shifts and thus precip type changes along with rates
result in uncertain snow totals. Used more GFS/ECMWF for the
Thursday night low. EFI has indicated impactful snow totals again,
but with showery nature and lower pops not confident so will keep
an eye on this. But overall be prepared for winter weather
through the end of the week with impacts to holiday travel and
events.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM AKST this
     evening for AKZ027-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ023.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031>035-052-053.

&&

KRT/PRB

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