Small Craft Advisory 562, NWS Juneau, AK

406 
FZAK53 PAJK 210044
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
344 PM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-211845-
Yakutat Bay-
344 PM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft. Snow early
in the evening. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. S swell in
the morning. Rain. Snow in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 12 ft late. S swell in the evening. Rain and
snow. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Snow showers
and rain showers. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

114 
FZAK53 PAJK 211229
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
329 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-220630-
Yakutat Bay-
329 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to
19 ft. S swell early in the morning. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft late. S
swell in the evening. Rain in the evening. Snow.
.MON...Light winds becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. S swell. Snow showers. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Snow showers. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

769 
FZAK53 PAJK 220050
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-221900-
Yakutat Bay-
350 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt decreasing to 10 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt
in the evening. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 10 ft late. S swell in 
the evening. Snow and rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Snow and rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

171 
FZAK53 PAJK 221235
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-230645-
Yakutat Bay-
335 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding in the afternoon. S 
swell early in the morning. Snow showers and rain showers in the 
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain showers and
snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

536 
FZAK53 PAJK 230020
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-231830-
Yakutat Bay-
320 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Snow showers in the
morning. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas
7 ft. Rain showers and snow showers late. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

016 
FZAK53 PAJK 231239
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-240645-
Yakutat Bay-
339 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers. Rain showers in
the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt late. Seas 8 ft. Rain
showers. Snow showers late. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

537 
FZAK53 PAJK 240005
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
305 PM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-241815-
Yakutat Bay-
305 PM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt late. Seas 8 ft. S
swell early in the evening. Rain showers early in the evening.
Snow showers late. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W late. Seas 9 ft. S
swell. Rain and snow late. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain and snow. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

416 
FZAK53 PAJK 241235
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-250645-
Yakutat Bay-
335 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow early in the morning, 
then rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming W late. Seas 8 ft. SW swell.
Rain late. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Snow. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

414 
FZAK53 PAJK 250017
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-251830-
Yakutat Bay-
317 PM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming light. Gusts to
35 kt early in the evening. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S late. Seas 10 ft. S
swell. Snow showers. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

490 
FZAK53 PAJK 251227
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 AM AKST Thu Nov 25 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-260630-
Yakutat Bay-
327 AM AKST Thu Nov 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas building to 9 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt late. Seas 10 ft. SW
swell. Snow and rain. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
SW swell. Snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Snow showers.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

208 
FZAK53 PAJK 260008
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKST Thu Nov 25 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-261815-
Yakutat Bay-
308 PM AKST Thu Nov 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Snow with rain. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. S
swell. Snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell in the evening.
Snow showers. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

033 
FZAK53 PAJK 261248
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 26 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-270700-
Yakutat Bay-
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. 
SW swell. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

618 
FZAK53 PAJK 270025
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 26 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-271830-
Yakutat Bay-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 11 ft. S swell in
the evening. Snow showers early in the evening. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

021 
FZAK53 PAJK 271313
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
413 AM AKST Sat Nov 27 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-280715-
Yakutat Bay-
413 AM AKST Sat Nov 27 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SW swell early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow showers late. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. SW swell. Snow showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
435 PM AKST Fri Nov 19 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday/ A low passes through the
southern panhandle bringing a mix of rain and snow this afternoon.
Through the evening, precipitation diminishes before the next
storm moves into the gulf early Saturday morning. Except for the
farthest southern areas, temperatures are below or near freezing
across the majority of the panhandle. Through tonight,
temperatures continue to fall priming the panhandle for snowfall
Saturday. This system will bring abundant moisture into the
panhandle. With temperatures below freezing ahead of the storm, a
change from snow to rain is expected as the front moves up the
panhandle. For this afternoon's update, several winter weather
products have been issued. A winter storm advisory is in effect
for cities including, Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, and Angoon from
Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Also, winter storm
warnings are in effect for cities including Juneau, Gustavus,
Hoonah, and Elfin Cove from noon Saturday until early Sunday
morning. Then finally, a winter storm warning is in effect for
cities including Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway from Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning.

The main impacts with this system will be widespread heavy snow
falling over a short period of time followed by rain on top of
snow. A potential significant impact from this system is the
possibility of a period of freezing rain late Saturday night
through early Sunday morning. As the occluded front pushes
northward through the Panhandle Saturday night, dry air will
filter in aloft from the south. This is an interesting set up as
the main low is near Kodiak Island with the front extending all
the way to SE AK. A dry slot behind the occluded front will push
in aloft Saturday night shutting off the heavy precipitation for
much of the Panhandle. Due to the dry air advection, the Dendritic
Growth Zone will become unsaturated while the lowest levels of
the atmosphere remain saturated. Since the warmer, drier air will
be overrunning the cold air at the surface, there will be a period
of time precipitation will be falling as rain while the surface
remains below freezing, especially across the Icy Strait Corridor.
Expect heavy snow to transition to light freezing rain overnight
before a transition to plain rain during the day Sunday.
Confidence remains low in the amount of freezing rain that could
fall; however impacts could be significant no matter what.
Expecting widespread heavy snow accumulations across the northern
2/3 of the Panhandle Saturday evening before a transition to light
freezing rain overnight.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/ An active period
continues as a wintertime pattern remain around Southeast Alaska.

The period begins with an ongoing winter storm across Southeast
Alaska. By Sunday morning, A low will be pushing into the
Northern Gulf Coast near Cape Suckling with an occluded front
extending eastward toward the Panhandle. The triple point will be
located just offshore of Prince of Wales Island which, will be
the focus for wave development Sunday night. As mentioned in the
short term AFD, a dry slot will be pushing northward behind the
occluded front into the Panhandle Sunday morning. Expecting a
warming trend through the day, so P-type should transition to all
rain for most areas, except Upper Lynn Canal. Rain should be
fairly light Sunday with possible breaks in the clouds as the dry
slot remains over the region. Rainfall will increase in coverage
and intensity Sunday afternoon across the Southern Panhandle as a
wave develops along the front and moves north. Total rainfall
across the Southern Panhandle from the weekend into Monday could
be as high as 4 inches in Misty Fjords and around Ketchikan.
Heaviest rain should taper off and transition to showers Monday
morning as the wave moves off into Canada.

A relatively benign weather period sets up Monday through Tuesday
across the region as a low remains in the northern gulf and cold
air advection moves in aloft. Showers will persist during this
period transitioning to snow showers Monday evening through
Tuesday as colder air filters. The potential is there for minor
snow accumulations from snow showers, however exact locations and
amounts will become clearer over the next few days.

The active weather pattern picks back up again Wednesday and
continues through the end of the Holiday week. Multiple systems
are expecting to move north into the gulf and impact Southeast
Alaska during this time. Models and ensembles are hinting at a
storm system on Wednesday which has the potential to bring more
accumulating snow at sea level to the area. A much stronger and
potentially warmer system could affect the area for the
Thanksgiving timeframe. It's too early to go into the exact
details of these systems due to model discrepancies; however
confidence remains high that impactful weather will be present the
latter half of next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for
     AKZ024-026.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon Saturday to 3 AM AKST Sunday for
     AKZ020>022-025.
     Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ022-023.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 6 AM AKST Sunday for
     AKZ017>019.
     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST Saturday
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-036-041>043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>035-053.

&&

CC/CM

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