Small Craft Advisory 558, NWS Juneau, AK

883 
FZAK51 PAJK 171400 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-180345-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low makes landfall this morning just W of Yakutat Bay as its
associated weather front tracks E across the eastern gulf today
and into the Inner Channels tonight. Another low in the northern
gulf slowly tracks E to near Yakutat Bay through Thu. High
pressure builds in the Canadian Yukon on Thu.   

$$

PKZ011-180345-
Glacier Bay-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the evening.
Snow showers. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-180345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers 
in the evening. Snow showers. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-180345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-180345-
Icy Strait-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and isolated 
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers in the 
evening, then snow showers late. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-180345-
Cross Sound-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft. Isolated thunderstorms. Rain showers. 
.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Isolated thunderstorms. Rain 
showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow showers in 
the evening, then snow showers late. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-180345-
Stephens Passage-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 
kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers. Snow showers late. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-180345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-180345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. Isolated thunderstorms and rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. Snow showers late. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft near
ocean entrances. Snow and rain showers. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-180345-
Frederick Sound-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW late. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers in the evening, then snow and rain showers late. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-180345-
Sumner Strait-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. Snow showers late. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near
ocean entrances. Snow and rain showers. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-180345-
Clarence Strait-
500 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain showers. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow showers. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

067 
FZAK51 PAJK 180015
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-181715-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A front associated with a low in the NE Gulf tracks over the
Inner Channels tonight. This low will weaken through Friday as
another low moves into the SE Gulf from the W. High pressure
builds over the Yukon on Thursday. 

$$

PKZ011-181715-
Glacier Bay-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing. Gusts to 35 kt early in the 
evening. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and slight chance of 
thunderstorms in the evening. Snow showers late. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
in the morning then 2 ft or less. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft 
late. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-181715-
Northern Lynn Canal-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding.
Rain showers. Snow showers late. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Gusts to
45 kt late. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft late. Snow showers in the
evening. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-181715-
Southern Lynn Canal-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
Snow showers late.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt late. Seas 4 ft
building to 6 ft. Snow showers. 
.FRI...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-181715-
Icy Strait-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Slight chance thunderstorms 
early in the evening. Rain showers. Snow showers late. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft 
late. Snow showers in the evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-181715-
Cross Sound-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 10 ft. 
Rain showers and slight chance thunderstorms. Snow showers late.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE late. Seas 9 ft. Snow
showers in the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building
to 10 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-181715-
Stephens Passage-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
Snow showers late. 
.THU...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers and 
rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-181715-
Northern Chatham Strait-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 5 
ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. Snow showers. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-181715-
Southern Chatham Strait-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-181715-
Frederick Sound-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening,
then rain showers and snow showers late. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers in the evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-181715-
Sumner Strait-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. Snow showers late. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-181715-
Clarence Strait-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Snow 
showers late.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Snow showers. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers with snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

093 
FZAK51 PAJK 181220
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-190400-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low in the NE Gulf will weaken through Friday as another low 
moves into the SE Gulf from the W. High pressure builds over the 
Yukon on Thursday increasing north winds in Lynn Canal to gale 
force. 

$$

PKZ011-190400-
Glacier Bay-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Snow showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-190400-
Northern Lynn Canal-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Snow showers early in the morning. Snow showers in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Gusts to 45 kt
late. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft late. Snow showers in the
evening. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-190400-
Southern Lynn Canal-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Snow and rain showers early in the morning, then snow 
showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Snow
showers. 
.FRI...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-190400-
Icy Strait-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain showers early in 
the morning, then snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-190400-
Cross Sound-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing by afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE late. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building
to 10 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-190400-
Stephens Passage-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers in the evening. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-190400-
Northern Chatham Strait-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain showers in the 
evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-190400-
Southern Chatham Strait-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft,
except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain and snow showers early in
the morning. Rain and snow showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-190400-
Frederick Sound-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW. Gusts to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-190400-
Sumner Strait-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
in the morning then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas
6 ft. Snow showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-190400-
Clarence Strait-
320 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Snow showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Near ocean entrances, seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
433 PM AKST Tue Nov 16 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday night/ Active weather continues
across Southeast Alaska. A front associated with a gale force low
brings widespread precipitation across the panhandle this
afternoon. With this front, temperatures have warmed at the
surface leaving only the far northern panhandle below freezing.
These areas include Yakutat, Skagway, and Haines. Where others are
seeing rain, these locations are observing widespread snowfall,
even heavy at times. Winter Storm Warnings are ongoing through
Wednesday morning. So far, Yakutat reports 6 inches, Haines 7
inches, and Skagway to be confirmed. A Winter Weather Advisory is
in effect for Hyder through Wednesday morning as well.

As the storm moves through the panhandle this afternoon, winds
will increase as pressure gradients tighten. Small Crafts to Gales
are expected through the inner channels this evening with a
decreasing trend through late tonight. Over land, gusty
conditions are also being observed. Strong wind headlines have
been posted for west POW, Sitka, and Juneau areas for gusts to 40
mph.

With gusty conditions, a warmup occurs through tonight. Most of
the Panhandle can expect rainy and windy conditions with
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. The warmup though is
short-lived as third front marches eastward across the gulf
Wednesday and into the panhandle Wednesday night. First showers
over Yakutat. Then Wednesday night, colder air filters into the
Inner Channels with showers rapidly turning to snow. This includes
areas deep into the south central Panhandle.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/ Very active period
continues through the week and into the weekend as winter takes
hold of Southeast Alaska. Continued chances for accumulating snow
and Much Colder temperatures are in the forecast.

**Heavy Snow Showers Thursday and Much Colder Temperatures**

The period begins with a deep trough over Southern Alaska with a
strong jet streak rounding the base over the gulf. The jet streak
pushes right into the Panhandle placing the northern half of the
region in an area of enhanced lift under the left exit region. At
the same time, very cold arctic air will be ushered into the
region with 850mb temps falling to around -11C to -15C! With a
surface low remaining in the northern gulf through Friday, this is
a great set up for heavy snow showers across much of Southeast
Alaska. The challenge is determining which areas will receive the
greatest accumulations given the nature of showers. Confidence is
highest for potentially impactful accumulations around Yakutat,
Pelican, and Juneau. Due to this, A Winter Storm Watch has been
posted for Yakutat and Winter Weather Advisories have been posted
for Thursday for Pelican and Juneau areas. Accumulations are
expected to greatly vary over short distances; however upslope
favored areas are expected to receive the heaviest snow. The rest
of the Panhandle should experience snow showers, with rain mixing
in at times across the south.

**Potential Southern Panhandle Winter Storm Friday**

Another potentially impactful system moves into the region on
Friday as a weak area of low pressure traverses the gulf and
pushes into the far Southern Panhandle. At the same time, the
aforementioned low in the northern gulf weakens and dissipates as
a strong arctic high pushes south into the region. This sets the
stage for a period of snow across the Southern Panhandle on
Friday. The main challenges with this system will be how much
snow is possible at sea level and if the arctic high to the north
will be strong enough to dry out the atmosphere and limit
accumulations. Current forecast is for minor accumulations across
the Southern Panhandle Friday morning before a transition to rain.
Areas that could remain all snow are northern Prince of Wales
Island, and along and north of Sumner Strait. There are still
model discrepancies regarding the low track and QPF, so confidence
remains low in the Friday forecast. This will be watched closely
over the next few days as the potential is there for accumulating
snow at sea level.

**Saturday Drying Trend and Sunday Potential Winter Storm**

As the aforementioned arctic high drops south into the region,
expect a drying and clearing trend from north to south Friday
into Friday night. Some of the coldest temperatures of the season
are possible Saturday morning as lows could drop into the single
digits across the north! Highs may not make it out of the 20s for
many areas Saturday afternoon. With such cold air in place, the
next system expected to move in Sunday into Monday could bring
another round of accumulating snow before a change to rain. Still
a little too early to tell exact details; however this system will
be monitored closely over the next few days.

Forecast confidence is above average for the long-term forecast
period as the models were generally in good agreement. A
GFS/CMC/ECMWF model blend was used to create the forecast.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023-025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ029.
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ019.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031-041>043-051-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032>036-052-053.

&&

CC/CM

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