Small Craft Advisory 556, NWS Juneau, AK

439 
FZAK52 PAJK 171251
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-180700-
351 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low makes landfall this morning just W of Yakutat Bay as its
associated weather front tracks E across the eastern gulf today
and into the Inner Channels tonight. Another low in the northern
gulf slowly tracks E to near Yakutat Bay through Thu. High
pressure builds in the Canadian Yukon on Thu.   

$$

PKZ041-180700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
351 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt becoming W. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-180700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
351 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow showers late. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt becoming W. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-180700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
351 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Isolated thunderstorms and  
rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt becoming SW. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-180700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
351 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain
showers. Snow showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-180700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
351 AM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt late. Seas 12 ft. Snow
showers. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft
building to 13 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

788 
FZAK52 PAJK 180015
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-181815-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front associated with a low in the NE Gulf tracks over the
Inner Channels tonight. This low will weaken through Friday as
another low moves into the SE Gulf from the W. High pressure
builds over the Yukon on Thursday. 

$$

PKZ041-181815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers early in the
evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers in the
morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers late. 
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming W. Seas 18 ft building to 24 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-181815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers in the evening.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. Rain and snow showers late. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers, snow showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 16 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 21 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-181815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 17 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt becoming SW. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-181815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. Snow showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 17 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-181815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
315 PM AKST Wed Nov 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt late. Seas 15 ft
subsiding to 11 ft late. Snow showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms late. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 18 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 18 ft
subsiding to 14 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

629 
FZAK52 PAJK 181221
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-190630-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low in the NE Gulf will weaken through Friday as another low 
moves into the SE Gulf from the W. High pressure builds over the 
Yukon on Thursday increasing north winds in Lynn Canal to gale 
force. 

$$

PKZ041-190630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming W. Seas 18 ft building to 24 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-190630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 16 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 21 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-190630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt decreasing to 20 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 17 ft. 
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt becoming SW. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-190630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 8 ft subsiding after
midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 17 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-190630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
321 AM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE late. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 18 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 18 ft
subsiding to 14 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

160 
FZAK52 PAJK 190031
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
331 PM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-191845-
331 PM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low in the NE Gulf will weaken through Friday. High pressure
builds over the Yukon increasing northerly winds. A gale force
low moves into the SE gulf Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-191845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
331 PM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers late. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 9 ft. Rain
showers late. 
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt becoming W gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-191845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
331 PM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers early in the evening. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Rain showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming N 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-191845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
331 PM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers early in the
evening. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-191845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
331 PM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding late.
Snow showers early in the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior
bays and passes. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-191845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
331 PM AKST Thu Nov 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

847 
FZAK52 PAJK 191259
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
359 AM AKST Fri Nov 19 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-200700-
359 AM AKST Fri Nov 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low in the NE Gulf will weaken through Friday. High pressure
builds over the Yukon increasing northerly winds. A gale force
low moves into the SE gulf Saturday.  

$$

PKZ041-200700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
359 AM AKST Fri Nov 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 35 kt. Seas 12 ft building to
16 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 11 ft subsiding
to 7 ft late. Rain showers late. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt becoming W gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-200700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
359 AM AKST Fri Nov 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Rain showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming N 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-200700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
359 AM AKST Fri Nov 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain in
the morning, then rain and snow in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-200700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
359 AM AKST Fri Nov 19 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior
bays and passes. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 12 ft subsiding to
8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-200700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
359 AM AKST Fri Nov 19 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
644 AM AKST Tue Nov 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...A weak front glides over Southeast Alaska this
morning, already efficiently producing moderate to heavy snowfall
in Yakutat and spreading accumulating snow after midnight to the
coast and parts of the north and central Panhandle. Precipitation
becomes more organized today as a stronger gale force low delivers
a killing punch to much of the colder air across the region into
tonight. Stronger winds including some gale force winds in the
Inner Channels should do its part in helping the atmosphere
rapidly make the transition from snow to rain in portions of the
Panhandle.

The snow story has largely unchanged regarding the forecast.
However, it is possible that amounts may be higher given how much
has already fallen in Yakutat and Upper Lynn Canal already this
morning. An advisory was considered for Juneau this morning as
showers dropped a relatively quick half to an inch across the
capital city, but the spottier nature of the accumulation plus the
warming to the west and stronger winds through the central Inner
Channels have righted our confidence back towards a gradual
changeover mid-day. NBM ensembles have dropped their bullish
probabilities of accumulating snow here back to earth (and
admittedly MOS numbers which were less than enthusiastic. We did
slow warming through the day sufficiently to give us a possible
additional inch today in Juneau for 1 to 3 additional inches on
top of the inch that fell overnight. For Haines, Yakutat, Skagway,
White Pass, and Hyder, amounts have not changed and the warnings,
and wind shifts look very reasonable as forecasted. We did add to
strong wind threats with Juneau this afternoon/evening and Prince
of Wales Island late this afternoon/evening as well. Sitka again
looks ripe for gusty conditions this afternoon.

The forecasted warmup occurs through tonight. By tonight, most of
the Panhandle can expect rainy and windy conditions with
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. At least in the north,
people will experience these conditions with an ugly mess of slush
on the ground. The warmup though is short-lived as third front
marches eastward across the gulf Wednesday ready to push into the
Panhandle Wednesday night. First showers over Yakutat change back
over to snow with light accumulations possible. Then Wednesday
night, colder air filters into the Inner Channels with showers
rapidly turning to snow. This includes areas deep into the south
central Panhandle. Confidence is poor in temperature drops. Should
temperatures fall further than forecast, accumulations will
become an issue, but coupled with Thursday, we may have a few
impacts.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday Afternoon through Friday night as of 3PM
Monday/...The front that has prompted the Winter Storm Warnings
for the far northern Panhandle will have pushed through southeast
Alaska around the beginning of the long-term forecast period.
Therefore, mainly convective showery activity will be present
throughout the Panhandle behind the front through the remainder
of the period. Generally lighter snow amounts are anticipated
through the rest of the period. Sky-cover will become more broken
to scattered in nature, particularly in northern areas as we
approach the end of the period.

Some fairly strong northerly outflow winds look to be possible
for the northern Panhandle for Thursday through the end of the
period as the weakening low associated with the cold front that
passed through drifts southeastward while weakening while a strong
area of high pressure stays poised over the Yukon region of
Canada, creating a tight pressure gradient over the northern
third of the Panhandle. Areas like northern Lynn Canal look to
have sustained winds near Gale-force around the Thursday evening
through Friday night timeframe, which is the time when the
pressure gradient looks to be the tightest, causing the outflow to
be the strongest. Wind chills could be unpleasant. Be sure to
dress warmly and limit time outdoors if possible.

Speaking of temperatures, MOS guidance, ensembles, model forecast
850mb temperature advection, and thicknesses indicate a rather
potent cool down is in store for the region for the late week and
early weekend. High and low temperatures will remain near or
below freezing from Thursday through Saturday, for the northern
2/3 of the Panhandle. Low temperatures will be much colder.
Therefore, the most of the precipitation received will remain snow
throughout the majority of Southeast Alaska.

Trends for the late weekend into early next week show another
system coming up from the SW Sunday into Monday bringing a warm
up, more precipitation, and winds. Possibility of another period
of snow before southerly winds push warmer air into the southern
2/3rds of the panhandle causing a possible change to rain by late
Sunday. Still a little too early to tell exact details, but most
guidance agrees on some sort of system present in the gulf at that
time.

Forecast confidence is above average for the long-term forecast
period as the models were generally in good agreement. A
GFS/CMC/ECMWF model blend was used to create the forecast.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from noon today to 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 8 AM AKST Wednesday
     for AKZ029.
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ019.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031-041>043-051-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032>036-052-053.

&&

JWA/JLC/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1126 AM AKST TUE NOV 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     SNOW             YAKUTAT                 59.55N 139.73W
11/16/2021  M6.0 INCH        YAKUTAT            AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AS OF 11:20AM, 6" OF SNOW HAS FALLEN AT THE
            WSO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
122 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     SNOW             8 SSE HAINES            59.13N 135.36W
11/16/2021  M7.0 INCH        HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER 19-4 REPORTS 7" AS OF 12:30PM. WIND
            SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH, TEMP ROSE 5 DEGREES IN
            ABOUT 30 MINUTES. STILL SNOWING BUT MUCH
            WETTER NOW.

0119 PM     SNOW             HAINES                  59.23N 135.45W
11/16/2021  M7.0 INCH        HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER 19-15, "WE RECEIVED 7" OF SNOW SO
            FAR IN HAINES. THE SNOW IS STILL COMING DOWN
            HEAVY WITH LITTLE VISIBILITY.".

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
246 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     SNOW             HAINES                  59.24N 135.45W
11/16/2021  M6.7 INCH        HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ADDITIONAL 6.7 IN SINCE 0800. RAIN NOW
            MIXING IN. TEMP 32 F, WIND CALM.

&&

PRB