Small Craft Advisory 546, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 131311
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
411 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140715-
411 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A broad trough will remain over the eastern Gulf  through the
weekend with another low pressure system projected to  approach
the panhandle from the south on Sunday.  

$$

PKZ041-140715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
411 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers late. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-140715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
411 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-140715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
411 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-140715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
411 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Isolated thunderstorms early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-140715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
411 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

931 
FZAK52 PAJK 131626 AAC
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
726 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-141030-
726 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A broad trough will remain over the eastern Gulf  through the
weekend with another low pressure system projected to  approach
the panhandle from the south on Sunday.  

$$

PKZ041-141030-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
726 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-141030-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
726 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-141030-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
726 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-141030-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
726 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Isolated thunderstorms early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-141030-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
726 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

361 
FZAK52 PAJK 140017
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
317 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-141830-
317 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure over the NW gulf will track to the SE gulf through
the weekend. Multiple frontal bands will rotate about the low
and over the southern panhandle Sunday into Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-141830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
317 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to
7 ft late.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-141830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
317 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to
7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE late. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-141830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
317 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E in the evening, then 
increasing to 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing late. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-141830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
317 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 
6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E late. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-141830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
317 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming E. Seas 8 ft in
the evening subsiding to 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

408 
FZAK52 PAJK 141306
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
406 AM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-150715-
406 AM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure over Dixon Entrance rides NW through this evening
and dissipates over Baranof Island. A low in the central gulf 
strengthens to gale force this afternoon and then weakens on its 
way SE into Haida Gwaii Mon. Weak low pressure develops in the 
northern gulf Mon. High pressure persists across the Canadian 
Yukon. 

$$

PKZ041-150715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
406 AM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming W and increasing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain 
showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-150715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
406 AM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 8 ft in the late afternoon. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-150715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
406 AM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-150715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
406 AM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-150715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
406 AM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

634 
FZAK52 PAJK 142357
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
257 PM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-151800-
257 PM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A strengthening low tracks into the SE Gulf Sunday night then
weakens as it moves into British Columbia Monday. Weak low
develops over the northern gulf Monday. A gale force low tracks
into the AK Gulf Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-151800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
257 PM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas building to 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-151800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
257 PM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-151800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
257 PM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-151800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
257 PM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain with snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-151800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
257 PM AKST Sun Nov 14 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

057 
FZAK52 PAJK 151252
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-160700-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low tracks into British Columbia Monday. A near
gale-force low tracks into the AK Gulf Tuesday.  

$$

PKZ041-160700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-160700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain in
the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-160700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-160700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-160700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
352 AM AKST Mon Nov 15 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
249 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...A low pressure system that has been affecting the
region since Thursday afternoon is tracking NE across Chichagof
Island as of 2pm Friday. This track will affect the timing of the
wind shift to the west behind the low then the subsequent
southerly winds that are expected up Lynn Canal. The slightly
later timing of the shift for the northern inner channels may keep
snow a bit longer for the Chilkat Valley, but the other factor for
ending snow will be when winds shift aloft and the valley gets
shadowed. Still think that the end time for the warning in that
area will be close to 6pm tonight.

CAA behind the low pressure system is evident in the look of the
clouds on satellite imagery. Although the clouds look a bit more
stratified/capped on satellite, they should become more convective
late tonight as a separate low center settles south of the Kenai
Peninsula/PWS area. That new low will help to drive showers into
Yakutat overnight. The CAA and rates should be enough for the
showers to change to mainly snow despite the wind direction being
WSW (which would normally be too warm for snow). Any showers that
train over the same area could see a quick couple inches while
locations away from the training showers would see much less
accumulation. Despite these competing factors, an advisory remains
in effect for Yakutat starting at 9pm Friday and ending 3pm
Saturday for around 4 inches of snow. The peak rate should be
around 3am.

The CAA will cause most of the panhandle to see some mixing with
snow late Friday night into early Saturday morning, but
accumulations should be less than 1 inch near sea level (unless
training happens). Showers will gradually decrease through
Saturday night as flow slowly backs offshore due to a new low to
the distant south, tracking NE toward the Canadian coast. As a
result, winds through the inner channels will shift out of the
north again Saturday night and increase. The increased northerly
outflow winds will help to shut off most lingering showers across
the north and decrease cloud cover...leading to colder
temperatures.

On Sunday the low will move over the southern panhandle and bring
the potential for some bands of showers. The placement of those
bands is less certain since models haven't pinned down the low
track, it may be a more broad meso-vorticity type system that
models struggle with. Most of the showers should fall as rain,
but some mixing with snow is possible on POW if the timing lines
up with locations that were able to cool below freezing during the
nighttime hours ahead of the shower bands.

.LONG TERM.../ Sunday through Friday as of 10 PM Thursday /
Diminishing precipitation will give way to clearing skies through
Sunday afternoon, at least across the N half of the panhandle. The
cause of the clearing skies will be an outflow event which will
take place as the pressure gradient strengthens between a new low
moving N out of the southern Gulf and a high in the Yukon. Expect
that with this outflow event, it is likely that breezy conditions
will be seen across at least the N half of the panhandle. Lynn
Canal will likely see gale force winds, and have added small
craft winds in through many of the central inner channels. There
may also be an opportunity for a weak to moderate strength
mountain wave event to setup over downtown Juneau, though am not
yet confident in this given the differences in timing of the low
to the south.

The windy conditions will most likely begin to subside Monday
afternoon through Monday night as the low in the south attempts to
advance into the panhandle, before being deflected back to the S
as its associated trough moves out of the area. It still looks
like the southern panhandle will experience the bulk of any
significant precipitation with this system. The far N panhandle
will likely stay fairly dry, with precip chances slowly increasing
through the Icy Strait Corridor on South.

Disagreement among ensembles and operational runs alike rapidly
increases after this time period, but it does look like the low
in the S departs the area by Tuesday. There are increasing
indications that a new wave could impact the area Tuesday or
Wednesday, but forecast uncertainty means this is not yet set in
stone. Looking even further afield, there are hints that
significant cool down for late next week could be in the works-
something which would likely be joined with a substantial outflow
event. However, confidence in this event remains low at this time.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST
     Saturday for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>033-036-051>053.

&&

Ferrin/GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau