Small Craft Advisory 543, NWS Juneau, AK

948 
FZAK51 PAJK 130209 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-131700-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A gale force low moves inland just south of Icy Strait while 
weakening this evening. A broad trough will remain over the 
eastern Gulf through the weekend with another low pressure
system  projected to approach the panhandle from the south on
Sunday.  

$$

PKZ011-131700-
Glacier Bay-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas
building to 5 ft. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Snow showers and rain showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft late. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-131700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming S 30 kt in the evening. Seas 
building to 6 ft. Snow showers early in the evening. Rain showers 
in the evening, then rain and snow showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-131700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ021-131700-
Icy Strait-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain 
showers in the evening.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ022-131700-
Cross Sound-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the late
evening. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-131700-
Stephens Passage-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming 20 kt late. Seas 6 ft subsiding
to 4 ft. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 
40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ032-131700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming 20 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt in 
the evening. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ033-131700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming 15 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt early
in the evening. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft. Near ocean 
entrances, seas 18 ft subsiding to 11 ft late. Rain showers early 
in the evening.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances.
Rain showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming N late. Seas 2 ft or less, 
except 7 ft near ocean entrances. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-131700-
Frederick Sound-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft late. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ035-131700-
Sumner Strait-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening, Seas
4 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 13 ft subsiding to 8 ft late. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Near
ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ036-131700-
Clarence Strait-
509 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas
10 ft subsiding to 6 ft late. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming N late. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
249 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...A low pressure system that has been affecting the
region since Thursday afternoon is tracking NE across Chichagof
Island as of 2pm Friday. This track will affect the timing of the
wind shift to the west behind the low then the subsequent
southerly winds that are expected up Lynn Canal. The slightly
later timing of the shift for the northern inner channels may keep
snow a bit longer for the Chilkat Valley, but the other factor for
ending snow will be when winds shift aloft and the valley gets
shadowed. Still think that the end time for the warning in that
area will be close to 6pm tonight.

CAA behind the low pressure system is evident in the look of the
clouds on satellite imagery. Although the clouds look a bit more
stratified/capped on satellite, they should become more convective
late tonight as a separate low center settles south of the Kenai
Peninsula/PWS area. That new low will help to drive showers into
Yakutat overnight. The CAA and rates should be enough for the
showers to change to mainly snow despite the wind direction being
WSW (which would normally be too warm for snow). Any showers that
train over the same area could see a quick couple inches while
locations away from the training showers would see much less
accumulation. Despite these competing factors, an advisory remains
in effect for Yakutat starting at 9pm Friday and ending 3pm
Saturday for around 4 inches of snow. The peak rate should be
around 3am.

The CAA will cause most of the panhandle to see some mixing with
snow late Friday night into early Saturday morning, but
accumulations should be less than 1 inch near sea level (unless
training happens). Showers will gradually decrease through
Saturday night as flow slowly backs offshore due to a new low to
the distant south, tracking NE toward the Canadian coast. As a
result, winds through the inner channels will shift out of the
north again Saturday night and increase. The increased northerly
outflow winds will help to shut off most lingering showers across
the north and decrease cloud cover...leading to colder
temperatures.

On Sunday the low will move over the southern panhandle and bring
the potential for some bands of showers. The placement of those
bands is less certain since models haven't pinned down the low
track, it may be a more broad meso-vorticity type system that
models struggle with. Most of the showers should fall as rain,
but some mixing with snow is possible on POW if the timing lines
up with locations that were able to cool below freezing during the
nighttime hours ahead of the shower bands.

.LONG TERM.../ Sunday through Friday as of 10 PM Thursday /
Diminishing precipitation will give way to clearing skies through
Sunday afternoon, at least across the N half of the panhandle. The
cause of the clearing skies will be an outflow event which will
take place as the pressure gradient strengthens between a new low
moving N out of the southern Gulf and a high in the Yukon. Expect
that with this outflow event, it is likely that breezy conditions
will be seen across at least the N half of the panhandle. Lynn
Canal will likely see gale force winds, and have added small
craft winds in through many of the central inner channels. There
may also be an opportunity for a weak to moderate strength
mountain wave event to setup over downtown Juneau, though am not
yet confident in this given the differences in timing of the low
to the south.

The windy conditions will most likely begin to subside Monday
afternoon through Monday night as the low in the south attempts to
advance into the panhandle, before being deflected back to the S
as its associated trough moves out of the area. It still looks
like the southern panhandle will experience the bulk of any
significant precipitation with this system. The far N panhandle
will likely stay fairly dry, with precip chances slowly increasing
through the Icy Strait Corridor on South.

Disagreement among ensembles and operational runs alike rapidly
increases after this time period, but it does look like the low
in the S departs the area by Tuesday. There are increasing
indications that a new wave could impact the area Tuesday or
Wednesday, but forecast uncertainty means this is not yet set in
stone. Looking even further afield, there are hints that
significant cool down for late next week could be in the works-
something which would likely be joined with a substantial outflow
event. However, confidence in this event remains low at this time.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST
     Saturday for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>033-036-051>053.

&&

Ferrin/GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
108 PM AKST FRI NOV 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     SNOW             HAINES                  59.23N 135.45W
11/12/2021  E6.0 INCH        HAINES             AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAINES DISPATCH ESTIMATED THAT 6 INCHES OF
            SNOW HAS FALLEN, SO FAR.

&&

JLC