Small Craft Advisory 537, NWS Juneau, AK

548 
FZAK53 PAJK 111238
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-120645-
Yakutat Bay-
338 AM AKST Thu Nov 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the
afternoon. SW swell in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Rain showers
and snow showers. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

206 
FZAK53 PAJK 120036
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Thu Nov 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-121845-
Yakutat Bay-
336 PM AKST Thu Nov 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. S swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell in the evening. 
Rain showers and snow showers. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Snow showers and
rain showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

318 
FZAK53 PAJK 121249
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-130700-
Yakutat Bay-
349 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft. S swell. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. S swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell in the evening. 
Rain showers and snow showers. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Snow showers and
rain showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

812 
FZAK53 PAJK 121300
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-130700-
Yakutat Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. SW
swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 7 kt late. SW 
swell in the evening. Rain showers. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Rain showers and
snow showers in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

060 
FZAK53 PAJK 130040
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-131845-
Yakutat Bay-
340 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell in the evening. Rain
and snow showers. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of Disenchantment
Bay. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of
Disenchantment Bay. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

696 
FZAK53 PAJK 131222
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-140630-
Yakutat Bay-
322 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Snow showers early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Out of Disenchantment Bay, gusts to
40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of
Disenchantment Bay. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 PM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...SW flow aloft has kept isolated showers around
today, but lee side shadows have also cause a lot of large breaks,
making for a rather pleasant day. Showers will decrease through
this evening and winds will turn back out of the N-NE due to a low
pressure system well to the SW tracking across the north Pacific.
This system will be the main forecast challenge for the rest of
the short term period.

The low will cause rain to spread into the far southern panhandle
late tonight, then progress northward through Thursday afternoon
as the low starts tracking northward into the SE gulf. The low
position being so far south will limit the precip amounts (QPF)
over the far north until the evening hours. At that point the
precip should start as snow for Haines/Skagway and at least a mix
as far south as Hoonah. As precip rates increase in the evening,
mainly snow will fall in the Juneau area, particularly the back of
the Mendenhall Valley. The low position will also keep winds
across the northern portion of the panhandle to be N-NELY and keep
low level temps cooler than they would be otherwise. Overrunning
will happen since mid-level winds will be out of the due south for
the entire event, allowing for moisture transport into the
northern inner channels. MOS is indicating temps in the Icy Strait
to Juneau area to be above freezing, but think that Juneau will
still be cold enough for accumulating snow. An advisory has been
posted for both Juneau and Haines, please see the latest statement
for more details.

As the low shifts north, a southerly push of winds is expected.
This will cause an abrupt increase in winds out of the south
along with much warmer temperatures, leading to a change over to
rain showers Friday morning/afternoon. Then after the front
passes, CAA will transition the showers back to a mix or all snow
through late Friday night. This could lead to some additional
accumulating snow and will need to be monitored if more organized
bands set up rather than scattered showers.

.LONG TERM.../ Friday through Wednesday as of 10 PM Tuesday /
Snow will be a continuing possibility during the evening and
overnight periods across the N panhandle and Icy Strait Corridor.
Some areas could see measurable accumulations, with Juneau in
particular looking favored, though it is looking probable that
many locations will see their first accumulating snow of the
season. As the low responsible dissipates in the N panhandle,
precip will slowly diminish, with clearer weather trying to
establish itself across the N half of the area.

The cause of this clearing g skies will be an outflow event,
which will take place as the pressure gradient strengthens between
a new low impacting the S panhandle and a high in the Yukon.
Timing of the low, as well as just how far it manages to push into
the panhandle, remains a forecasting challenge. In either case,
Sunday through Monday could see strong N winds across at least the
northern half of the panhandle, with gale force conditions
possible in Lynn Canal. There may also be an opportunity for a
weak or moderate strength mountain wave event to setup over
downtown Juneau, though am not yet confident in this given the
differences in timing of the low to the south.

Disagreement among ensembles and operational runs alike rapidly
increases after this time period, but it does look like the low
in the S departs the area between Monday and Tuesday. It is
possible that a new wave could impact the N part of the panhandle
Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for AKZ027.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 8 AM AKST Friday
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for AKZ023-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM AKST Friday
     for AKZ019.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-041>043-051-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-033>035-052-053.

&&

Ferrin/GFS

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