Small Craft Advisory 535, NWS Juneau, AK

364 
FZAK51 PAJK 101300
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-110345-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Low pressure over the southern Panhandle weakens as it moves 
eastward through Wednesday morning and high pressure ridge tracks 
over the E Gulf. A gale force low moves into the SE Gulf by late 
Wednesday night. 

$$

PKZ011-110345-
Glacier Bay-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 15 kt overnight. Seas building to
3 ft late.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-110345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the morning. Seas 3
ft early in the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt overnight. Seas building to 4
ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI...N gale to 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding
to 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-110345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-110345-
Icy Strait-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt by the afternoon. Seas 
building to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-110345-
Cross Sound-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt . Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the
afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-110345-
Stephens Passage-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Out of interior 
passes, gusts to 35 kt late. Seas building to 4 ft late. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to
3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft
building to 7 ft.


$$

PKZ032-110345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Seas building to 4
ft late.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Snow. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-110345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Seas building to 4
ft late.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. S swell in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft,
except 15 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-110345-
Frederick Sound-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes. Seas 
4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-110345-
Sumner Strait-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior 
passes. Seas 6 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-110345-
Clarence Strait-
400 AM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKST Tue Nov 9 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday Morning/...It's been a busy day for
the forecast team with some locations across the panhandle reporting
their first snowfall of the season. The near-term forecast only had
minor changes to account for current conditions. Our efforts
today were focused on analyzing the next storm approaching the
panhandle from the south Thursday into Friday. Wind and possible
advisory level snow totals are expected with this storm.

First, the track of the Thursday/Friday system was adjusted, with
models indicating a speed up and a track further east than the
previous forecast. There was good agreement between the
deterministic models and ensembles which added confidence to
adjusting the timing and track. The NAM (12z and 18z) brought the
track closest to the coast, however hedged away from the NAM since
ensemble low positions were more in line with the GFS, Canadian,
and ECMWF. Wind fields were adjusted to match the shift in track.

Model surface temps, 850mb temps, and 1000-850mb thickness fields
indicate that most areas south of Icy Strait will remain rain for
the duration of the precipitation with this next storm. Areas
north of the Icy Strait corridor (Haines / Skagway) will stay snow
the longest with 6 or more inches of snow possible Thursday night
into Friday. For the Icy Strait corridor itself (Juneau, Hoonah,
Gustavus), model soundings show several hours of impressive lapse
rates through a saturated dendritic growth zone. However, there
are hints at a warm layer which would detract from the snow
potential. However, however, if precipitation rates are high
enough and with snowmelt cooling, that could cool the column
enough to keep accumulating snow longer. The Icy Strait corridor
will likely see precipitation start as accumulating snow, and then
transition to rain late Friday morning. Hourly temperatures were
adjusted to keep precipitation snow until the wind shifts from NE
to S, with temperatures rising after the wind shift. Preliminary
snow amounts look to be around 3-6 inches Thursday night into
Friday morning for Juneau, Gustavus, Hoonah. There is an outside shot
at heavier snow should the snow-to-rain transition happen later
than expected. The NAM, although an outlier for the pressure
field, seemed to have the best conceptual model for snow level,
depicting the rising snow levels through the day on Friday.

.LONG TERM.../ Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 PM Monday / A
gale-force system will make its way into the Gulf Thursday,
bringing precipitation through the weekend. Models continue to be
in good agreement, so only focused changes were made to the
forecast. A second prominent surface system is forecasted to
approach the southern portion of the panhandle at the end of the
weekend, but much lower confidence and agreement on this system.

This late-week low will bring organized, widespread precipitation
that will be moderate to heavy at times. Measurable snowfall is
expected in the northern half of the panhandle. The gale- force
system, with winds up to 45 knots around the low center, will
produce breezy land conditions as well. Expect the system to
advect warmer air to the region, bringing temperatures closer to
near- normal. As the two systems leave the region, expect another
cooling trend towards more below- normal temperatures.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-031-041>043-051-052.

&&

BFL/KRT

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