Small Craft Advisory 513, NWS Juneau, AK

089 
FZAK52 PAJK 312346
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-011800-
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front in the Gulf will continue to weaken
through Sunday night. A low will enter the Gulf from the south 
Monday night and track north through Tuesday.

$$

PKZ041-011800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.WED...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 10 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-011800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.WED...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 19 ft
subsiding to 11 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-011800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-011800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 16 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-011800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
346 PM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers late. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SE swell. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 22 ft
subsiding to 16 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

057 
FZAK52 PAJK 011157
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
357 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-020600-
357 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front in the Gulf will continue to weaken through
Monday. A low will enter the Gulf from the south  Monday night
and track north through Tuesday. Outlook: Another low will move
N and into the panhandle Wednesday morning. 

$$

PKZ041-020600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
357 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 10 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-020600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
357 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-020600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
357 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-020600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
357 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-020600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
357 AM AKDT Mon Nov 1 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain early in the morning.
Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
523 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Mon night/ Nothing particularly scary in
this halloween edition of the short range discussion. Some areas
of fog have formed overnight in a few areas of the inner channels.
Visibilities have dropped as low as a quarter mile at times, but
it has been rather localized and tends to shift around (adding to
the creepy ambiance). Webcam images this morning also show that
the fog banks are rather thin. Only a few hundred feet thick at
most. The rather thin and scattered nature of the fog is possibly
due to the continual stream of high thin clouds over the panhandle
from the front to the west. This fog should start to burn off
after sunrise this morning.

Warmer and dry weather remains the main aspect of the forecast for
the next 48 hours. An upper level ridge combined with surface high
pressure over northern BC are teaming up to keep the front, that
is currently over the central gulf, from moving any farther east.
There is little sign of that changing until late Mon night at
least with all the wind, and precip remaining situated over the
gulf waters. Little in the way of forecast changes as a result.

In the mean time, a warmer air mass is being pushed into the area
with 850 mb temps expected to reach 5 to 7 degrees C Today
through Mon night. This translates to high temperatures reaching
into the 40s and low 50s across a wide area for Sun and Mon
afternoon (though some areas could be cooler due to not having the
inversion break, or warmer due to downslope warming). Overnight
lows however will still drop to near or below freezing with the
clearer skies and longer nighttime hours. Fog may also become an
issue again Sun night as low level inversions develop under the
light winds and clearer skies. Though high thin clouds streaming
over the area could still limit how thick that fog will become.

Overall, any Halloween activities this evening will enjoy rather
pleasant weather across the panhandle. Dry weather is the main
story under mostly clear skies (though Yakutat will see more
clouds). Initial temps will likely be in the 40s dropping into
the 30s by late evening. Fog may become an issue through the
evening hours reducing visibility, so be careful if you are out
and about this evening.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 PM Saturday/...The
long term portion of the forecast begins with a change in the
weather pattern from a drier to wetter pattern.

Starting with the weakening ridge of high pressure being replaced
with a trough. The timing of these ridge breakdowns are usually
not handled well by the models and last longer than expected. But
if current timing holds true, the ridge will break down Tuesday,
allowing for rain to slowly move in. The rain looks to come in
from the south from a pair of low pressure systems. This set up
would give SE AK a wet Wednesday.

Afterwards, a general area of low pressure will sit over the
gulf, giving the panhandle a chance at showers Thursday into
Friday.

Friday and the weekend could bring some potential active weather.
The individual runs in the models bring strong areas of low
pressure into the gulf. However, because these are 7-9 days out,
the uncertainty is high. Between the deterministic runs and the
member-wise minimums in the ensembles, the strength of the surface
low could be down to near 960 mb but the spread of timing and
travel path is very wide. So next weekend will be monitored over
the coming days.

There isn’t much for snow potential in this long term forecast.
850 mb temperatures really don't get too far below 0C so for now,
rain is likely if any precip is expected.

Highs and lows will slowly cool down during the long term. The
long term forecast starts with highs in the 40s to low 50s and
lows in the 30s to low 40s. But by next weekend, highs average in
the mid 40s with lows in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051-053.

&&

EAL/GJS

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