Small Craft Advisory 501, NWS Juneau, AK

163 
FZAK51 PAJK 242340
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-251630-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A hurricane force low well S of Haida Gwaii slowly churns toward 
Vancouver Island through Mon. An area of low pressure extends NW 
across the Inner Channels this evening but weakens as it moves 
offshore by Mon. High pressure persists across NW Canada. 

$$

PKZ011-251630-
Glacier Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.MON NIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-251630-
Northern Lynn Canal-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-251630-
Southern Lynn Canal-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-251630-
Icy Strait-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-251630-
Cross Sound-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 7 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-251630-
Stephens Passage-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt except 25 kt near Young Bay, diminishing 
by evening. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas building to
3 ft late. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-251630-
Northern Chatham Strait-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.MON NIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or 
less. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-251630-
Southern Chatham Strait-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas building to
3 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 12 ft near
ocean entrances. Showers.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-251630-
Frederick Sound-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas building to
3 ft late. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-251630-
Sumner Strait-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-251630-
Clarence Strait-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

754 
FZAK51 PAJK 251150
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-260345-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Low pressure across the Inner Channels weakens as it moves 
offshore Monday while high pressure persists across NW Canada. A 
low pressure system crosses the southern gulf Monday into Tuesday 
and approaches the southern panhandle Tuesday evening. 
  

$$

PKZ011-260345-
Glacier Bay-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt early in the morning becoming light. Seas
3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-260345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft or less in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-260345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-260345-
Icy Strait-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft
or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-260345-
Cross Sound-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt becoming SW. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-260345-
Stephens Passage-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft
or less. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 2 ft or less.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the 
morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-260345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt early in the morning becoming light. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-260345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers in the
afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 14 ft near
ocean entrances. Showers.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-260345-
Frederick Sound-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas building to 3 ft
late. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the morning.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-260345-
Sumner Strait-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft
or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers late. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-260345-
Clarence Strait-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas building
to 3 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers late. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
611 AM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/The weak front pressing
westward from the central Gulf of Alaska leads the remains of an
unstable air mass that arrived across Southeast Alaska on Friday
away from the region. Any prospective thunderstorms were a no-
show. While instability was there, the more gradual uplift in the
southeast to northwest trajectory probably did not add the
necessary lift that we see typically from southwest flow riding up
steeper terrain. Showers pull west today leading to clearing
skies and sun for much of Southeast. Gradients have already begun
to turn northerly through much of the region. With low to mid-
level flow growing more offshore, a lee-side trough forms across
the Inner Channels, and this serves to accelerate northerlies
through our fjords. Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait all reach small
craft advisories this afternoon.

As skies have begun clearing early this morning, temperatures have
begun dropping into the lower 30s in parts of Juneau as fog forms
from the leftover boundary layer moisture. This is causing some
black ice to form that could remain for much of the morning before
temperatures rise. High level cloudiness has spread across much of
the south, but we think this is temporary. Even so, fog has not
been as prevalent across the south, probably for this reason.

Mountain wave guidance has come in weaker than we saw yesterday.
And cross-barrier flow as well as 925 mb winds have come in
weaker, in particular. For this reason, we lowered wind speeds,
and instead of a bona-fide mountain wave, we elected to
strengthen the channel wind through Downtown which often occurs
when mountain wave winds aloft do not break to spread the
strongest wind speeds to the surface.

Gradients relax on Monday, in part because winds in the low to
mid-levels begin to shift onshore. Thus the lee-side trough
weakens significantly, and northerly winds for the most part fall
apart as they shift to southeasterly by Monday night. With this
change in winds, we think clouds return to the Panhandle Monday,
but that shower chances do not rise until Monday night. So we
should squeeze one more dry day out of this break in our typical
rainy pattern. With chilly temperatures in place and onshore flow
bringing showers in the forecast, snow or a mix with snow is not
out of the question for some areas in Upper Lynn Canal Tuesday
morning. This will hint at broader issues of precipitation type in
the week's forecast ahead.

.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 pm Saturday / The
long term forecast will see a return to more customary Autumn
weather through the middle of the week as rain begins to work its
way back into the area. In the upper levels the jet stream which
had been situated well to the S over Vancouver and Seattle will
come under the influence of a trough across the Gulf. This will be
reflected at the surface by a broad area of low pressure which
will likely move into the area late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Accompanying this system will likely be renewed rainfall and
breezy conditions for SE Alaska.

Onshore flow will likely help maintain chances of rain across the
area through Thursday, before the possibility of some drier
weather emerges late in the week. Any drying would be dependent
on the strength of a high pressure system which some ensemble
guidance indicates could form over B.C. - and which would drive
offshore flow across the area. This must be balanced with the
possibility of a weak wave trying to move through the area on
Friday. This leads us into the question of whether or not
Halloween will be on the drier side. Although the ensembles are
hinting at the possibility of a system impacting the area around
this time, it must be noted that guidance oftentimes struggles to
predict the impacts of offshore flow on approaching systems.
Should sufficient offshore flow be present, it is entirely
possible that any such system could arrive later than is currently
anticipated-if at all. More recent runs, though these must still
be taken with a large grain of salt, have reflected this as they
have begun pushing any possible system back towards later on
Sunday, or even further out.

Temperatures will likely cool down somewhat especially towards
the end of the week and into the weekend as possible offshore flow
increases the chances of clearing across parts of the area. This
cooler weather will likely linger towards Halloween, which could
lead to some chilly conditions for any outdoor activities.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-032-033-041>043-051>053.

&&

JWA/GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau