Small Craft Advisory 499, NWS Juneau, AK

528 
FZAK52 PAJK 242340
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-251745-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A hurricane force low well S of Haida Gwaii slowly churns toward 
Vancouver Island through Mon. An area of low pressure extends NW 
across the Inner Channels this evening but weakens as it moves 
offshore by Mon. High pressure persists across NW Canada. 

$$

PKZ041-251745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell.
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. W
swell. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-251745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-251745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SE swell. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-251745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
S swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-251745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

454 
FZAK52 PAJK 251150
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-260600-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure across the Inner Channels weakens as it moves 
offshore Monday while high pressure persists across NW Canada. A 
low pressure system crosses the southern gulf Monday into Tuesday 
and approaches the southern panhandle Tuesday evening. 
  

$$

PKZ041-260600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers in the morning.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-260600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers in the 
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-260600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SE swell. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the
afternoon. S swell in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-260600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. S
swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SE swell increasing to S in
the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-260600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
350 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to
11 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
253 PM AKDT Sat Oct 23 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Monday / Cloud coverage and the probability
of precipitation is starting to decrease across the panhandle as
the low pressure moves out of our region. A high pressure builds
to our North this evening, shifting the onshore flow to offshore.
The onshore flow comes back late Monday night as a surface low
approaches the panhandle.

Breezy conditions will remain in most areas overnight and an
increase in winds is expected through the day tomorrow for N/S
inner channels, Skagway, and downtown Juneau and Douglas. There
is a Strong Wind headline for downtown Juneau and Douglas Sunday
afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. Confidence in breezy conditions
at these locations is average.

Dry conditions are expected across the region through most of the
short term. The probability of precipitation increasing to a
chance of showers late Monday evening as a surface low pressure
approaches the panhandle. A slight chance of thunderstorms remains
in the forecast tonight.

With clearing skies overnight and through tomorrow, fog chances
remain in Juneau, Wrangell, Ketchikan, and above-average
confidence for Petersburg on Sunday and Monday mornings.
Temperatures will continue to decrease through tonight, and a
large diurnal curve of 10+ degrees will occur in most areas
tomorrow due to clear skies and plenty of sunshine. Expect lows to
drop to near to below freezing overnight Sunday into Monday.

.LONG TERM.../ Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday / Flow
pattern aloft for the weekend and next week looks like the
following. An upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf with a
closed 500 Mb low West of Vancouver Island Monday lifts into the
panhandle Monday evening. A second trough moves into the eastern
Gulf of Alaska and then lifts onshore across the panhandle
Wednesday. The end of the week is more of the flow becoming more
SW to Westerly, while a stronger low is suggested by model
solutions to track into the Gulf at the end of the week and next
weekend.

The weakening front/trough associated with the Vancouver Island
low moves into the southern panhandle and spreads light
precipitation in later Monday evening. A new surface low will
track across the Southern Gulf of Alaska and to the southeastern
portion of the Gulf Tuesday evening. The upper-level flow will
steer the low and associated precipitation through Southeast
Alaska and into Canada. The westerly flow will keep the onshore
flow for the end of the week. Looking at the long-range pattern,
and believe in the fair model agreement that a well-organized
front will sweep in to the central Gulf right before the weekend.

Monday's weather starts with a break in the rainy weather, as
much of the forecast area has a reprieve from the typical fall
rains. Cooler temps are anticipated in the northern sections
Monday and Tuesday mornings. Kept the area of patchy that was in
the forecast for early Monday.

Overall no significant weather feature is expected for the
Eastern Gulf of Alaska and Southeast Alaska until the end of the
week, where a big system may be making an appearance. Confidence
is average for the extended forecast.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ025.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033-036-041>043-053.

&&

KRT/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau