Small Craft Advisory 484, NWS Juneau, AK

405 
FZAK51 PAJK 191804 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-200230-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A high end Gale force front over the eastern Gulf will remain 
mostly stationary and begin weakening Tue afternoon. The front 
will then move northeastward into the Panhandle on Wed and Wed 
night while continuing to weaken. Outlook: Another Gale force low 
moves into the eastern Gulf from the south starting Thu night. 

$$

PKZ011-200230-
Glacier Bay-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-200230-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-200230-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-200230-
Icy Strait-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-200230-
Cross Sound-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain late. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-200230-
Stephens Passage-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-200230-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-200230-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming S. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Near
ocean entrances, seas 16 ft. S swell.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 13 ft 
near ocean entrances. S swell. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 12 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-200230-
Frederick Sound-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-200230-
Sumner Strait-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 13 ft 
near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Gusts to 35 
kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 4 ft late. Seas 10 ft near ocean 
entrances.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3
ft.


$$

PKZ036-200230-
Clarence Strait-
1000 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Near ocean 
entrances, seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 
ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

646 
FZAK51 PAJK 192346
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-201715-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A stationary gale force front over the eastern gulf will begin
weakening Tue night. A low will develop along the front near 
Haida Gwaii Tue night and move NW along the front through Wed 
afternoon. The weakened front will then move into the panhandle 
behind the low on Wed. Outlook: Another Gale force low moves into 
the eastern Gulf from the south starting Thu night. 

$$

PKZ011-201715-
Glacier Bay-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 2 ft or
less. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-201715-
Northern Lynn Canal-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the evening.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 2 ft or
less. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-201715-
Southern Lynn Canal-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 2 ft or
less. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-201715-
Icy Strait-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft. Rain in the evening.
.WED...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-201715-
Cross Sound-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-201715-
Stephens Passage-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 
35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft.
Rain in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-201715-
Northern Chatham Strait-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the 
evening.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-201715-
Southern Chatham Strait-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 14 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain in the evening.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Near ocean entrances, 
seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-201715-
Frederick Sound-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Rain in
the evening.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the evening.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-201715-
Sumner Strait-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except
8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-201715-
Clarence Strait-
346 PM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas
5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
243 PM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Wednesday night /...It has been a cloudy
day around the panhandle today. Broad area of low pressure over
the gulf with associated front sitting right along the coast has
brought rain and strong winds to the open waters. Wind gusts have
been upwards of 45 kts with up to 20 to 25 foot waves.

That being said, land areas and inner channels have seen much
less activity. Only high clouds have been reported around the
panhandle with no rain reports from surface stations as of 2:30PM.

Some winds over land areas and inner channels have been ramping
up. Sitka and Hydaburg have been reporting wind gusts near 30 kts.
But elsewhere, wind gusts have been around 20 kts or nonexistent
due to light winds. The strongest inner channel winds have been
around 10 to 20 kts.

Going forward, winds will, for the most part, remain at the speed
they have been through tomorrow night then weaken going through
Wednesday. Clouds will remain in place and the rain will slowly
move inland beginning late tonight. I looks like Yakutat will see
the better rain chances tomorrow but the rest of the panhandle
will be stuck at the slight chance of rain or stay dry through
tomorrow. It looks like the band of moisture will really get
pushed inland on Wednesday through Wednesday night.

To try to simplify it, areas west of Lynn Canal and Chatham
Strait could see the rain as early as late tomorrow. Areas east
of Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait have a better chance to stay dry
until Wednesday afternoon. For the south, western POW Island could
see the rain begin late tomorrow night, areas east of POW Island
would see the rain begin Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures will continue their slow climb upwards. Tonight’s
temperatures will dip to the 30s to 40s but by Wednesday night,
lows will mostly be in the 40s. Tuesday's highs will be in the 40s
for most, low 50s in the south. Wednesday will see mostly highs
in the upper 40s to near 50.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/...A fresh round of energy
from the southern Bering Sea splashing east across the Aleutian
Chain into the western Gulf of Alaska should provide sufficient
momentum to push rainfall from the stalled eastern gulf front into
the Panhandle Wednesday. With a strong front stuck in the eastern
gulf for days, the southeasterlies ahead of the system will have
long ago driven out any signs of an early season polar air mass as
850 temperatures largely rise above 0 C. Thus, this precipitation
will fall as rain across Panhandle sea level communities. An
extended breezy period should persist into most of Wednesday, but
as the front pushes in, strength falls markedly, and thus by
Wednesday night winds ease briefly.

With a complex upper low positioned in the Gulf for the
foreseeable future and periodic intrusions of storm inducing
colder air from the Bering and moisture-amping typhoon-fed north
Pacific storms, the pattern becomes ripe for the possibility of a
series of storms riding northward into the southeast gulf. How
strong winds will be, how many storms will arrive, where and when
exactly will they impact are all subject to debate. While this
pattern possesses impactful wind potential, models sadly and
notoriously struggle with specifics for various reasons. Ensembles
tend to agree of the threat of wind from Baranof to the southern
Inner Channels including Prince of Wales, especially the ECMWF
Extreme Forecast Index during this time period, mainly Thursday
through the weekend. We elected to alert partners/public days
ahead with a Special Weather Statement for wind impacting
transportation and causing power outages. Currently we barely
mention gales for the southeast gulf, but this can be ramped up
later as confidence increases. The operational GFS pushes 50 plus
knots of winds at various points late this week. We also
acknowledged the outside chance that one such system (suggested
by the NAM) could develop on Wednesday. But the most likely time
will be Thursday into Sunday. However, the period could last into
early next week.

While not the main focus, the pattern also tends to favor the
highest probability and amounts of rain along the coast and in the
south with much lighter amounts and lower chances in the north.
With the focus of lower pressure deep in the central and
southeastern gulf, winds will largely stay northerly. However,
given warmer temperatures in western Canada, we do not expect
typically strong outflow in response to the storms from the south.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-033-035-036-053.

&&

GJS/JWA

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