Small Craft Advisory 466, NWS Juneau, AK

582 
FZAK52 PAJK 092337
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-101745-
337 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
W to SW onshore flow will persist across the gulf into Sun
night. A storm force low will move into the central AK Gulf Mon
night while the associated front moves across the panhandle.  

$$

PKZ041-101745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
337 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms. 
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-101745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
337 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
Showers in the evening. 
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell. Isolated
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-101745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
337 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers in the evening.
Isolated thunderstorms. 
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. Isolated
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-101745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
337 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Rain showers
early in the evening. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-101745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
337 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 13 ft. SW swell.
Showers early in the evening. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt becoming N 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

241 
FZAK52 PAJK 101152
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-110600-
352 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening area of low pressure along the NE Gulf coast
dissipates Sunday. Higher pressure moves through the Southern
Gulf through Sunday night. Outlook: A storm force low will move 
into the north central Gulf Monday night while the associated 
front moves across the panhandle. 

$$

PKZ041-110600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
352 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-110600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
352 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming S gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 ft. W swell in the morning. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 23 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-110600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
352 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon. W swell
in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-110600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
352 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain
showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-110600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
352 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S late. Seas 8 ft. SW swell in
the evening. Rain showers late. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming E gale to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

533 
FZAK52 PAJK 110008
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
408 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-111815-
408 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A high pressure ridge moves through the Southern Gulf through
Sunday night. A storm force low will move into the north central
Gulf Monday night while the associated front moves across the
panhandle. 

$$

PKZ041-111815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
408 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. W swell in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt becoming SW late. Seas 24 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-111815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
408 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt late. Seas 14 ft. W
swell in the evening. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon. W swell in the morning.
Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt becoming W gale to
40 kt late. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. W swell. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-111815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
408 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt becoming SW gale to
40 kt late. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-111815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
408 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt becoming SW gale to
45 kt late. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-111815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
408 PM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers late. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt becoming S gale to
40 kt late. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
210 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing gale force
front moving over the eastern gulf towards the AK Panhandle. The
front will track overland and into Canada overnight. A weaker low
will remain near Prince William Sound Saturday then drive to the
SE while weakening. A ridge of high pressure will then track
quickly across the AK Gulf Sunday into Monday.

Windy conditions will diminish as the front moves east as well as
moderate showers subsiding. So far 24 hour rainfall amounts have
ranged from 0.25 to about 1.00 inches. The weekend will continue
to have showers move onshore from the NE gulf low, but much
lighter rainfall totals expected. Sunday will continue the
diminishing trend in rain and winds. With instability behind the
front have potential for thunderstorm activity over the Eastern
Gulf and coastal panhandle tonight and early Saturday.

Models were again in fair agreement for both ensembles and
operational runs. Made some increases to QPF and rain amounts in
the short term, but otherwise forecast remained mostly as is.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through next Thursday/ As of 10pm Thursday.
A weak surface low over the northern gulf will keep showers going
into Sunday morning. Then the low will weaken further to an open
trough as it tracks southeast along the outer coast through the
afternoon. This will cause most showers to shift southward through
the day. However, latest models have been trending POP up again
with the trough lingering in place. For this forecast update, POP
was begrudgingly increased due to all models showing this trend,
but still see potential for an improving conditions through the
day so kept weather to scattered showers for now. Some breaks in
the clouds Sunday night could mean another chilly Monday morning,
but if less breaks happen or clouds ahead of the next system start
moving in earlier then that will limit radiational cooling.

Models have sped up the timing slightly for the next system coming
Monday night, leading to a shorter break than previously thought.
Still, the first part of Monday should see some breaks. Model
agreement on the low track has been wishy-washy from run to run,
leading to lower forecast confidence. But the timing of the gale
force front is still looking to move over the easterly gulf Monday
night, and onshore through early Tuesday morning. Heavy rain is
likely (storm total of 1-2.5 inches), but where the bulk of it
falls may shift based on low track. White Pass could see a few
inches of snow out of this front too, but again if the track ends
up being further south, they will see less.

Beyond Tuesday, things stay active/wet with no dry periods in
sight. Therefore, make the most of the "lull" for parts of
Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-052-053.

&&

PRB/Ferrin

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