Gale Warning 198, NWS Juneau, AK

509 
FZAK67 PAJK 092338
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-101745-
338 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
W to SW onshore flow will persist across the gulf into Sun
night. A storm force low will move into the central AK Gulf Mon
night while the associated front moves across the panhandle.  

$$

PKZ310-101745-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
338 PM AKDT Sat Oct 9 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 9 ft late. W swell. Rain...heavy at times
late. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain...
heavy at times. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

379 
FZAK67 PAJK 101152
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-110600-
352 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weakening area of low pressure along the NE Gulf coast
dissipates Sunday. Higher pressure moves through the Southern
Gulf through Sunday night. Outlook: A storm force low will move 
into the north central Gulf Monday night while the associated 
front moves across the panhandle. 

$$

PKZ310-110600-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
352 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 9 ft late. W
swell. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SE gale to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain in the evening.
.TUE...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

954 
FZAK67 PAJK 101521 AAA
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
721 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-110930-
721 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A weakening area of low pressure along the NE Gulf coast
dissipates Sunday. Higher pressure moves through the Southern
Gulf through Sunday night. Outlook: A storm force low  will move
into the north central Gulf Monday night while the  associated
front moves across the panhandle.  

$$

PKZ310-110930-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
721 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 9 ft late. W
swell. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SE gale to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain in the evening.
.TUE...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
210 PM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing gale force
front moving over the eastern gulf towards the AK Panhandle. The
front will track overland and into Canada overnight. A weaker low
will remain near Prince William Sound Saturday then drive to the
SE while weakening. A ridge of high pressure will then track
quickly across the AK Gulf Sunday into Monday.

Windy conditions will diminish as the front moves east as well as
moderate showers subsiding. So far 24 hour rainfall amounts have
ranged from 0.25 to about 1.00 inches. The weekend will continue
to have showers move onshore from the NE gulf low, but much
lighter rainfall totals expected. Sunday will continue the
diminishing trend in rain and winds. With instability behind the
front have potential for thunderstorm activity over the Eastern
Gulf and coastal panhandle tonight and early Saturday.

Models were again in fair agreement for both ensembles and
operational runs. Made some increases to QPF and rain amounts in
the short term, but otherwise forecast remained mostly as is.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through next Thursday/ As of 10pm Thursday.
A weak surface low over the northern gulf will keep showers going
into Sunday morning. Then the low will weaken further to an open
trough as it tracks southeast along the outer coast through the
afternoon. This will cause most showers to shift southward through
the day. However, latest models have been trending POP up again
with the trough lingering in place. For this forecast update, POP
was begrudgingly increased due to all models showing this trend,
but still see potential for an improving conditions through the
day so kept weather to scattered showers for now. Some breaks in
the clouds Sunday night could mean another chilly Monday morning,
but if less breaks happen or clouds ahead of the next system start
moving in earlier then that will limit radiational cooling.

Models have sped up the timing slightly for the next system coming
Monday night, leading to a shorter break than previously thought.
Still, the first part of Monday should see some breaks. Model
agreement on the low track has been wishy-washy from run to run,
leading to lower forecast confidence. But the timing of the gale
force front is still looking to move over the easterly gulf Monday
night, and onshore through early Tuesday morning. Heavy rain is
likely (storm total of 1-2.5 inches), but where the bulk of it
falls may shift based on low track. White Pass could see a few
inches of snow out of this front too, but again if the track ends
up being further south, they will see less.

Beyond Tuesday, things stay active/wet with no dry periods in
sight. Therefore, make the most of the "lull" for parts of
Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-052-053.

&&

PRB/Ferrin

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