Small Craft Advisory 461, NWS Juneau, AK

292 
FZAK52 PAJK 072352
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-081800-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening front moves over the panhandle Thursday night as a
high pressure ridge builds into the AK Gulf. The ridge moves E
ahead of the next front arriving from the W Friday. This front
tracks over the Eastern Gulf and Panhandle through Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-081800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
12 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-081800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. Slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-081800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-081800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE in the evening, then
becoming SE late. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
12 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain showers late. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-081800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to
13 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt becoming W 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
Issued by National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
325 PM AKDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

The current partly cloudy conditions across the Inner Channels
and isolated showers along the Outer Coast will give way to
widespread rain across Southeast Alaska tonight and Thu. A weather
front approaching from the west tonight will move over the
Panhandle Thu and move inland early Fri. This will bring rain
into the Yakutat area late this afternoon, spreading southeast to
Sitka and Juneau by this evening, and to the southern Panhandle by
early Thu. Rain will continue through the day Thu, then taper off
to showers Thu night and early Fri as the front moves inland.

Expect rainfall amounts by Thursday night of 1.00-1.50 inch along
the Outer Coast north of Sitka, with 0.50-1.00 inch along Lynn
Canal and south of Sitka. Snow levels currently near 2000 ft are
expected to rise above 3000 ft tonight and Thursday with the
front. Southeast winds will increase to 35 kt tonight along the
Outer Coast, and 15-25 kt along Lynn Canal with winds persisting
into early Thu. The winds should taper off late Thursday and early
Friday as the front moves inland.

A stronger occluded front is forecast to move east across the
Panhandle Friday, and move inland on Saturday. This is expected
to bring moderate to heavy rain to most of Southeast Alaska
Friday through Saturday. Expect southeast winds to increase to
brief gale force Friday PM along the Outer Coast as the front
approaches, then turn southwest 15-25 kt Fri night and Sat as the
front moves inland.

Models at 18Z all verified 3-5mb too weak on the low forming in
Norton Sound, and 3-4 mb too weak on the low south of Shemya.
The NAM had the lowest pressure on these features, and thus was
preferred the preferred model in the short term. Main difference
over Southeast Alaska is that the NAM brings the precipitation in
1-2 hrs quicker today, and the NAM has the heaviest precipitation
north of Sitka tonight through Thursday night. This was supported
by the earlier onset of rain in Gustavus and Yakutat today.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Tuesday.

Several systems are expected to pass over the region through the
extended forecast, bringing measurable rain with brief breaks in
between. The progressive upper level pattern of ridge/trough/ridge
moving through the westerly jet will keep each surface low/front
moving through the area from west to east.

From Saturday night through Sunday noon, a vertically stacked low
will track from the Northern Panhandle southeast to to the
Southern Panhandle. Heavy rain along the coast just ahead of the
low will move from the Yakutat area Saturday night south to the
southern Panhandle by Sunday morning. Winds will shift to N-NE
behind this low on Sunday with showers tapering off from the north.
Expectation of breaks in the clouds and colder air aloft Sunday
night/Monday morning will make that the coldest day of the long-
range.

Most of Monday is looking like a break. Then the 3rd system of
the extended forecast moves into the region from the west by early
Tuesday morning. Models differ some on location of the Tuesday low
(day 7/8) as it moves across the gulf, but still have relatively
similar timing. They are showing the potential for storm force
winds over the gulf late Monday night into Tuesday. This will be
one to watch over the coming days.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>036.

&&

JB/Ferrin

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