Gale Warning 212, NWS Juneau, AK

664 
FZAK52 PAJK 081510 CCA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-090545-
332 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A min gale force front over the central gulf will move E over
the panhandle Fri afternoon and night. Behind the front, W to SW
onshore flow will persist across the gulf into Sun. 

$$

PKZ041-090545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
332 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S in the morning, then increasing
to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 12 ft.
Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt. Seas 19 ft
building to 24 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-090545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
332 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming S in the morning, then increasing
to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. Showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-090545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
332 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. Rain
showers. 
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 40 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-090545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
332 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 13 ft.
Rain. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-090545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
332 AM AKDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt becoming E gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft
building to 12 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt becoming N 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
221 PM AKDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this afternoon showing a weakening
front tracking eastward over the AK Panhandle. This front
produced gale force winds along the Eastern AK Gulf, small craft
to gale force winds over the inner channels, and some strong wind
gusts especially over the southern inner channels. Widespread
rainfall fell over the region with period of moderate to heavy
rain were also produced by this front. As the front exits the
area winds and rain showers will diminish from north to south as a
high pressure ridge over the western AK Gulf moves east. Any
weather breaks will be limited as the next gale force front moves
in Friday, crossing over the area through Saturday.

Similar pattern for the end of the week into the start of the
weekend with low centered near Prince William Sound and associated
front extending southward. Low end gales for the coastal waters
and then small craft winds for the inner channels. For now have
winds gust just below 40 mph overland but coastal and Southern
Panhandle could get some higher gusts. Rain increases through
Friday with period of moderate rain. 24 hour rain amounts only 1
to upwards of 1.5 inches, typical fall system. No significant
breaks in precip Saturday and Sunday as the front passes due to a
low remaining in the NE Gulf with continued onshore flow. With
colder air aloft behind the front this unstable airmass warranted
mention of thunderstorm possibility over the eastern AK gulf and
coastal areas. Model cape and LI moves inland so will keep an eye
on this pushing thunderstorms further inland. Except for the
northern inner channels with winds staying around 15-20 kts due to
pressure gradient, most areas will have a diminishing trend in
winds.

Ensembles and operational models were showing good consistency
through the short term. Not much change run to run so was able to
keep previous forecast mostly as is. Any heavy precip as depicted
by model IVT and ensemble PW was aimed just to the south of the AK
Panhandle, thus limiting any hydrology concerns. Higher
elevations this time of year become a concern with respect to
snowfall amounts but have only a couple of inches at White Pass
due to the warm air advection from the front and rising snow
levels.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through next Wednesday/ As of 10pm
Wednesday. Saturday will feature a post frontal environment with
CAA and WSW flow at all levels. This will result in numerous rain
showers, especially for communities along W-SW facing slopes.
Locations on the lee side of these mountains may see lighter/fewer
showers. The CAA over the warm ocean and some lift from PVA has
potential for lighting. Have included a slight chance in the
forecast for the northern outside waters starting early Saturday
morning, then shifting SE along the outer coast through the day.
Some of the nearby land areas could be added to the thunderstorm
risk for Saturday with future forecast updates, stay tuned.

A surface low over the northern gulf will keep showers going late
Saturday night. Then the low will weaken as it tracks southeast
along the outer coast through Sunday afternoon. This will cause
greatest showers to be in the SW quadrant of the low, shifting
southward with it through the day. Therefore, improving
conditions are expected through the afternoon for the north along
with decreasing winds and a shift to the N-NE. Breaks in the
clouds and colder air aloft Sunday night will make for another
chilly Monday morning.

Most of Monday is looking like a break day, but some isolated
showers cannot be ruled out. Then the next system to affect the
region moves across the gulf Monday night, making for a wet day
Tuesday. Model spread has increased on the track of the low,
resulting in some uncertainty in wind directions for the inside
waters. The GFS is taking a easterly track across the southern
gulf, which would result in greatest rainfall for the south, less
rain for the northern inner channels and a wind shift to the
north. Meanwhile, the ECMWF tracks the low NE to the northern gulf
which would cause SELY winds and focus rainfall further north and
be more widespread. Timing of the system however remains
relatively similar. This forecast package is a compromise of
those tracks with gale force winds, using WPC and NBM for wind
directions.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-051-053.

&&

PRB/Ferrin

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