Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 451, NWS Juneau, AK

October 2, 2021

NWS Juneau, AK issued this small craft advisory at Oct 2, 2021, 3:45 AM AKDT. It was in force for 48 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 2, 2021, 3:45 AM AKDT (11:45 UTC)
Expired: Oct 4, 2021, 3:54 AM AKDT
In force: 48 hr
Issued by: NWS Juneau, AK

The text

As transmitted.

886 
FZAK52 PAJK 021145
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-030545-
345 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low over Mt. Fairweather continues NE into the
Canadian Yukon. A ridge of high pressure builds over the Inner
Channels today but weakens tonight. A weak front crosses the
gulf today and reaches the Panhandle tonight as a weak low
follows into the central gulf Sun. 

$$

PKZ041-030545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
345 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...GALE WARNING EARLY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 30 ft subsiding
to 20 ft in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. W swell. Isolated
thunderstorms in the evening. Showers.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. Showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-030545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
345 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 36 ft subsiding
to 21 ft in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms. Showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. Showers.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-030545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
345 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...STORM WARNING EARLY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 37
ft subsiding to 21 ft in the afternoon. Showers. Isolated 
thunderstorms.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.MON...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-030545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
345 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Showers in the morning, then isolated thunderstorms in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft late.
Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-030545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
345 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. S swell in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft
building to 7 ft. 

$$

4 follow-up statements

522 
FZAK52 PAJK 022334
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-031745-
334 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
The ridge of high pressure over the Inner Channels today weakens 
tonight as a weak front reaches the Panhandle. A weak low moves 
into the central gulf Sunday. 

$$

PKZ041-031745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
334 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Showers early in the
evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
11 ft. W swell. Showers in the evening. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-031745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
334 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. Showers in the
morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 10 ft. W
swell. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming E 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-031745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
334 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. Slight chance 
of thunderstorms.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-031745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
334 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-031745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
334 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft
building to 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

811 
FZAK52 PAJK 031158
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-040600-
358 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low over the northern Gulf of Alaska will drift to
southwest of Haida Gwaii by Monday morning. A ridge of  high
pressure moves into the western and northern gulf, and then  to
the the Panhandle by Monday night.  

$$

PKZ041-040600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
358 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-040600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
358 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 10 ft. W
swell. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-040600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
358 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming W late. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-040600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
358 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming East. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
8 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...Light winds becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-040600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
358 AM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft
building to 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

846 
FZAK52 PAJK 032326
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-041730-
326 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low over the northern Gulf of Alaska will devolve
into multiple weak surface circulations as the entire complex
moves southeast through Monday. A ridge of high pressure will
weaken as it shifts east, to be over the eastern Gulf by Tuesday
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ041-041730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
326 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 16 ft 
subsiding to 10 ft late. Slight chance of thunderstorms early in 
the evening. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-041730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
326 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 12 ft. W 
swell in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms early in the 
evening.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-041730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
326 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 11 ft. W swell in
the evening.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-041730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
326 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-041730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
326 PM AKDT Sun Oct 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming light late. Seas 8 ft subsiding
to 6 ft late.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas subsiding
to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft
building to 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

240 
FZAK52 PAJK 041154
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-050600-
354 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low over the northern Gulf of Alaska will devolve
into multiple weak surface circulations as the entire  complex
moves southeast through Monday. A ridge of high pressure  will
build over the gulf Monday night onward before being displaced
by an approaching system on Wednesday.  

$$

PKZ041-050600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
354 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-050600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
354 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-050600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
354 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-050600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
354 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building
to 8 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-050600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
354 AM AKDT Mon Oct 4 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 13 ft. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 1, 2:50 PM AKDT, 12 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 1, 2:50 PM AKDT, 12 hours 55 minutes before

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

.SHORT TERM...Forecast looks to be on track as our first storm
force low of the season continues to move in on the panhandle.
The low is currently in the southern Gulf and will move northeast
toward Cape Fairweather. Wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph have
already been observed across the region and will continue to
increase as the low draws closer. Expect the fastest winds to
begin in southern areas this afternoon and then for the peak wind
window to migrate north through the evening into Saturday morning.
A smattering of high wind warnings have been issued for multiple
zones with timing that reflects this.

Rain, heavy at times, has has been impacting the region all day
and looks to continue for the foreseeable future. While we should
begin to see rain rates begin to taper off going into Saturday, 48
hour totals generally in the 2 to 4" range over the duration of
the event still appear likely. Main areas of concern will be for
the rivers and streams through the Icy Strait corridor and into
Juneau where greatest precip amounts are expected and a flood
watch is in place. Also, rain rates through the day today in Sitka
have historically been associated with landslides therefore
leading to the issuance of a flash flood watch.

.LONG TERM.../Sun through Fri as of 10 pm Thu/ The upper level
pattern is gradually shifting in the extended range. What starts
out as a broad strong trough over much of the state on Sun
gradually gives way to ridging over the gulf by mid next week.
Past mid week though, the overall pattern becomes murky as there
are indications of a progressive and active trough/ridge pattern
setting up. However, timing and strength of the individual
features varies widely between models, and it is generally
flattening out into a more zonal flow pattern right now. Overall
the general trend in the forecast mainly consists of a drier,
cooler, and less active early to mid week period followed by a
more active and wetter late week period.

Closer to the ground, the two main features of note are the
lingering northerly gulf low early in the week, and a potential
front for the late week period. The lingering low early in the
week is what remains of the system that brought the higher winds
and heavy rain in the short range and at this point it is slowly
weakening away. Its last gasp, is continued showers for most of
the panhandle into early monday, but somewhat strong W flow across
the southern gulf will be the bigger concern. Ended up increasing
winds to 25 kt in southern 310 and into 41 Sun because of this.

Things dry out early to mid week due to developing ridging in the
gulf and more offshore flow developing. Temperatures at this time
will be cooler then normal across the panhandle as lingering cold
air from the strong trough from the weekend will still be around,
and some breaks in the clouds develop. In fact, some areas in the
northern and central panhandle, may see their first freeze of the
season mid next week.

The next front to take aim at the panhandle comes late in the
extended period, but guidance does not have a good handle on it
other then agreeing there will be a front in the gulf sometime
next Thu or Fri. Timing is the main variable as that varies
between Thu and Fri on when it will hit the panhandle depending on
the model. Overall there is enough agreement that winds have been
increased in the gulf and inner channels (nothing more then 20 kt
for now), a warming trend has been included, and chances for
precip have been increased (to 60 to 70 percent) for Thu into Thu
night as the front approaches.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 6 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ023-026-027.
     Flood Watch through Saturday evening for AKZ020>022-025-026.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT Saturday
     for AKZ021-024.
     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for AKZ023-024.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Saturday
     for AKZ020-022-025.
     Strong Wind until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ020-021-025.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind Saturday morning for AKZ023.
     High Wind Warning until midnight AKDT tonight for AKZ028.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKDT tonight through late tonight for
     AKZ018-028.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for AKZ019.
     Flood Watch Saturday evening for AKZ019.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ019.
     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ031-033-035-036-041>043-051-310.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022-032-034-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-053.

&&

JDR/KRT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 1, 10:09 PM AKDT, 5 hours 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1009 PM AKDT FRI OCT 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.69W
10/01/2021  M109 MPH         KETCHIKAN GATEWAY  AK   MESONET

            PEAK ROOF WIND AT KETCHIKAN AIRPORT.

0950 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST MENDENHALL VALLEY       58.37N 134.59W
10/01/2021  M69 MPH          JUNEAU             AK   ASOS

            GUST AT JUNEAU AIRPORT.

0942 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.42W
10/01/2021  M62 MPH          JUNEAU             AK   MESONET

            AT JUNEAU MARINE EXCHANGE OFFICE OB.

0942 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.42W
10/01/2021  M61 MPH          JUNEAU             AK   MESONET

            AT JUNEAU AML DOCK MARINE EXCHANGE OB.

&&

Local storm report, Oct 1, 10:20 PM AKDT, 5 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1020 PM AKDT FRI OCT 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 W MENDENHALL VALLEY   58.37N 134.70W
10/01/2021                   PKZ031             AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORT OF 10 TO 20 TREES DOWN NEAR THE
            JUNEAU FERRY TERMINAL.

&&

Local storm report, Oct 1, 10:27 PM AKDT, 5 hours 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1027 PM AKDT FRI OCT 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NW JUNEAU             58.34N 134.50W
10/01/2021                   PKZ031             AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TWO TREES FELL ON HOUSE CAUSING ROOF DAMAGE.
            A THIRD NEARLY FELL ON SAUNA.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 2, 12:45 AM AKDT	Gale Warning	AJK	3 hr
Oct 2, 3:38 AM AKDT	Gale Warning	AJK	12 hr
Oct 2, 3:45 AM AKDT	Gale Warning	AJK	12 hr
Oct 2, 4:07 AM AKDT	Gale Warning	AJK	11 hr
Oct 2, 4:07 AM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AJK	11 hr
Oct 2, 4:07 AM AKDT	Storm Warning	AJK	11 hr
Oct 2, 5:57 AM AKDT	Winter Weather Advisory	AJK	10 hr
Oct 2, 3:34 PM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AJK	3 days
Oct 2, 3:35 PM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AJK	48 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021 Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.