Small Craft Advisory 436, NWS Juneau, AK

321 
FZAK51 PAJK 250008
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-251700-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low over Prince William Sound will weaken in place through
Sat. A gale force low will track east across the NE Pacific into 
Haida Gwaii with a front moving north into the Southern Panhandle 
Sun into Mon. 

$$

PKZ011-251700-
Glacier Bay-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Rain showers in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-251700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas
building to 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-251700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers early in the evening.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-251700-
Icy Strait-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers in the evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming W late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-251700-
Cross Sound-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 11 ft.
Showers in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-251700-
Stephens Passage-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-251700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-251700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Near
ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-251700-
Frederick Sound-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-251700-
Sumner Strait-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
2 ft or less, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft then
2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-251700-
Clarence Strait-
408 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. Near 
ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
745 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

.UPDATE...As of early Thursday evening, 1 to 4 inches of rainfall
had fallen across the southern Panhandle since around midnight.
As the heart of an atmospheric river edges closer to the region
overnight before passing into Canada, we felt compelled to issue a
special weather statement describing sharp rises in rivers. A
quick perusal of ARIs do not indicate serious concerns, but the
EFI and its members graze the area overnight as some members
push standard deviations into concerning territory. While gusty
winds should ease somewhat this evening, breezy conditions will
persist overnight. Because of this and expected heavy rainfall,
there is a slight risk of mudslides Thursday night. But confidence
is too low to issue a flood watch and no real flooding is
expected. However, we will be watching observations overnight,
in particularly across the south.

Otherwise, the forecast is holding sound across the region as
rain blankets the region and winds blow through the Inner
Channels.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ...251 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SHORT TERM...A gale force low will continue to churn in the Gulf
Thursday night into Friday before eventually moving onshore to the
west of the region Friday afternoon into evening. As the
associated front passes through the panhandle many areas,
particularly to the south, will continue to see strong winds and
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall through the evening.
Observations from those areas have been indicating rainfall
amounts near or exceeding a quarter of an inch an hour. Expect
that winds and precip will begin to taper off through Friday into
Friday night before we have our next "lull" in the active weather
Saturday into Saturday night. Through the duration of the event,
some areas of the southern panhandle could see rainfall totals
around the 3-4 inch range. While we are currently expecting a
response on area streams and rivers, the precip should be spread
out over a long enough time frame to minimize flooding risks,
however will be monitoring the situation very closely. Instability
still looks sufficient enough to warrant the mention of
thunderstorm potential for offshore and coastal areas from around
Cape Suckling to near Cross sound this evening into tonight.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday night/...The extended
period continues to be an active period for SE Alaska and the
surrounding waters as low pressure systems move through the Gulf
and into the panhandle. However, breaks will occur for some areas
and it is looking increasingly likely that there could be drier
weather, especially through Saturday and Sunday. Rain could return
for some locations by the end of Sunday, guidance continues to
show that a system may impact parts of the area. However,
ensembles have continued to indicate a preference towards a more
southerly track for this low. Should this verify, much of the
northern panhandle could be spared from much of the associated
weather as offshore flow helps filter in drier air from the
interior, cutting off a significant portion of the moisture
transport. The same cannot be said for southern areas however, and
should the current prognostic reasoning continue to hold, it will
be a wet start to the work week for many. After this system,
ensembles are hinting at yet another system arriving on Wednesday,
but growing run to run divergence means that giving details with
any degree of confidence is difficult. Alongside the active
weather, cooler air will continue to filter into the area at
various times, with 850 mb temperatures progged to be below -2C on
more than one occasion across much of the area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ017-027-028.
     Strong Wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-041>043-053.

&&

JWA/JDR/GFS

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