Small Craft Advisory 435, NWS Juneau, AK

321 
FZAK52 PAJK 250005
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-251815-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low over Prince William Sound will weaken in place through
Sat. A gale force low will track east across the NE Pacific into 
Haida Gwaii with a front moving north into the Southern Panhandle 
Sun into Mon. 

$$

PKZ041-251815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell in the
evening. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 9 ft building to 16 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-251815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell in the
evening. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-251815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell in the
evening. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt. Seas 8 ft building to
12 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to
13 ft. 
.WED...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-251815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
13 ft. 
.WED...E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-251815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building
to 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

877 
FZAK52 PAJK 251125
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
325 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-260530-
325 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low will track east across the northeast Pacific
into Haida Gwaii with a front moving north into the  Southern
Panhandle Sunday into Monday. The low will then begin to move
north by Monday afternoon.  

$$

PKZ041-260530-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
325 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt early in the morning becoming light, then
becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell in the evening. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-260530-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
325 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell in the evening. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-260530-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
325 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell in the evening. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-260530-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
325 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming E in the morning, then becoming S
in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt becoming E gale to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-260530-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
325 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in
the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

775 
FZAK52 PAJK 252321
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-261730-
321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low will track east across the northeast Pacific
into Haida Gwaii with a front moving north into the Southern 
Panhandle Sunday into Monday. The low will then begin to move 
north by Monday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ041-261730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas building to 9 ft. Rain in the 
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-261730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 subsiding to 6 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. Rain in the 
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-261730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-261730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt becoming E gale to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-261730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
745 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

.UPDATE...As of early Thursday evening, 1 to 4 inches of rainfall
had fallen across the southern Panhandle since around midnight.
As the heart of an atmospheric river edges closer to the region
overnight before passing into Canada, we felt compelled to issue a
special weather statement describing sharp rises in rivers. A
quick perusal of ARIs do not indicate serious concerns, but the
EFI and its members graze the area overnight as some members
push standard deviations into concerning territory. While gusty
winds should ease somewhat this evening, breezy conditions will
persist overnight. Because of this and expected heavy rainfall,
there is a slight risk of mudslides Thursday night. But confidence
is too low to issue a flood watch and no real flooding is
expected. However, we will be watching observations overnight,
in particularly across the south.

Otherwise, the forecast is holding sound across the region as
rain blankets the region and winds blow through the Inner
Channels.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ...251 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SHORT TERM...A gale force low will continue to churn in the Gulf
Thursday night into Friday before eventually moving onshore to the
west of the region Friday afternoon into evening. As the
associated front passes through the panhandle many areas,
particularly to the south, will continue to see strong winds and
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall through the evening.
Observations from those areas have been indicating rainfall
amounts near or exceeding a quarter of an inch an hour. Expect
that winds and precip will begin to taper off through Friday into
Friday night before we have our next "lull" in the active weather
Saturday into Saturday night. Through the duration of the event,
some areas of the southern panhandle could see rainfall totals
around the 3-4 inch range. While we are currently expecting a
response on area streams and rivers, the precip should be spread
out over a long enough time frame to minimize flooding risks,
however will be monitoring the situation very closely. Instability
still looks sufficient enough to warrant the mention of
thunderstorm potential for offshore and coastal areas from around
Cape Suckling to near Cross sound this evening into tonight.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday night/...The extended
period continues to be an active period for SE Alaska and the
surrounding waters as low pressure systems move through the Gulf
and into the panhandle. However, breaks will occur for some areas
and it is looking increasingly likely that there could be drier
weather, especially through Saturday and Sunday. Rain could return
for some locations by the end of Sunday, guidance continues to
show that a system may impact parts of the area. However,
ensembles have continued to indicate a preference towards a more
southerly track for this low. Should this verify, much of the
northern panhandle could be spared from much of the associated
weather as offshore flow helps filter in drier air from the
interior, cutting off a significant portion of the moisture
transport. The same cannot be said for southern areas however, and
should the current prognostic reasoning continue to hold, it will
be a wet start to the work week for many. After this system,
ensembles are hinting at yet another system arriving on Wednesday,
but growing run to run divergence means that giving details with
any degree of confidence is difficult. Alongside the active
weather, cooler air will continue to filter into the area at
various times, with 850 mb temperatures progged to be below -2C on
more than one occasion across much of the area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ017-027-028.
     Strong Wind from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-041>043-053.

&&

JWA/JDR/GFS

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