Small Craft Advisory 427, NWS Juneau, AK

102 
FZAK51 PAJK 212354
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-221645-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A gale force low over the N gulf will move into the southern 
Yukon Tue night before weakening Wed. A new storm force low moves 
N across the Western gulf towards Prince William Sound pushing a 
front through the panhandle Thu into Fri. 

$$

PKZ011-221645-
Glacier Bay-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas
building to 4 ft late. Rain late. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-221645-
Northern Lynn Canal-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain 
showers. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-221645-
Southern Lynn Canal-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-221645-
Icy Strait-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W. Highest winds W of Point
Adolphus. Seas 5 ft. Showers in the evening. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt late. Seas
4 ft. Rain late. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-221645-
Cross Sound-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Showers.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
Rain late. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-221645-
Stephens Passage-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt in the evening. Gusts to 40
kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-221645-
Northern Chatham Strait-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 5 ft. 
Showers in the evening.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Gusts to
45 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain late. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-221645-
Southern Chatham Strait-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 13 ft 
near ocean entrances. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt late.
Gusts to 50 kt late. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft late. Near ocean
entrances, seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft, except
15 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-221645-
Frederick Sound-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt in the evening. Gusts to 35
kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers early in the evening.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt 
late. Seas 4 ft. Rain late. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-221645-
Sumner Strait-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean 
entrances. Showers early in the evening. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean 
entrances.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas
building to 6 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 5 ft building to 8 
ft late. Rain late. 
.THU...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft, except
11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft,
except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-221645-
Clarence Strait-
354 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers early in the evening. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas
5 ft. Rain late. 
.THU...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft, except 15 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
535 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.SHORT TERM...Surface analysis and satellite imagery show low
pressure spinning S of Cape Suckling with front pushing into the
outer coast attm. The N edge of the main moisture stream
clipping the Misty Fjords area but generally moving into W BC
this morning. Although no lightning has been detected overnight,
the 12Z PAYA sounding came in with ~8C/km mid level lapse rate
with a slight inversion at the surface, so maintained mention of
TS this morning over the NE gulf and coastal areas. Showers will
prevail for most of the panhandle through the day with a
decreasing trend beginning late afternoon/evening. Given the
continued onshore flow through Wed maintained isold-sct shra
across the region. The driest weather of the week will be brief as
precip chances begin increasing again late Wed night/early Thu
morning. Breezy winds will gradually ease today as the front
pushes through the panhandle. Models in fairly good agreement with
generally another 1-2" of precip today with some energy from the
low over the gulf moving into SW YT tonight. This will result in
an increasing S gradient across the N tonight with SCA winds
through Lynn Canal. Forecast confidence remains above average for
Wed to be the driest day this week.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday night/...The extended
period will be an active, stormy period for SE Alaska and the
surrounding waters as robust low pressure systems move through the
Gulf and into the panhandle. Cold air advection filtering into
the panhandle behind the Monday/Tuesday system will also see nippy
temperatures in some areas, and it is looking possible that parts
of the highways like White Pass may see a bit of snow Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. Thursday will see an upper level
trough displace the ridge and march across the gulf. Its surface
reflection, a strong frontal system and associated low, will bring
with it abundant wind and rain to the area. Operational models
have come into decent agreement on the gale force front entering
the panhandle on Thursday. The parent low is progged to stay over
the N Gulf through Friday before dissipating over Southcentral AK
through Saturday. This system will continue to impact the area
through at least Friday, before rain diminishes Saturday and
Sunday. There are some indications that offshore flow may become
predominant in the lower levels later on Saturday and into Sunday,
which would lead to a brief period of drier weather before
another possible system arrives late Sunday or Monday. Guidance
rapidly diverges after Monday, but it looks likely that the active
weather pattern will be set to continue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Area rivers and streams over the AOR all rose in
response to rainfall yesterday. Another 1-2 inches of rainfall
expected today, but more focused on the central and N panhandle.
Expect to see rises on area streams and rivers through this
afternoon in response. Flooding is still not anticipated with
today's rain. Focus then shifts to next system poised to bring an
additional 1-3 inches of precip beginning Thu.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ023.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-041>043-051>053.

&&

BC/GFS

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