Gale Warning 171, NWS Juneau, AK

884 
FZAK67 PAJK 221151
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-230600-
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low over the N gulf will weaken through Wed. A new 
storm force low moves N across the western gulf towards Prince 
William Sound pushing a front through the panhandle Thu into Fri. 

$$

PKZ310-230600-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 9 ft
building to 13 ft late. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

379 
FZAK67 PAJK 222328
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-231730-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force low moves N across the western gulf towards Prince 
William Sound pushing a front through the panhandle Thu into Fri. 
Onshore flow then persists into Sat.

$$

PKZ310-231730-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 40 kt. Seas 9 ft building to
14 ft late. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

122 
FZAK67 PAJK 231140
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 AM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-240545-
340 AM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force low moves N across the western gulf towards Prince 
William Sound pushing a front through the panhandle Thu into Fri. 
Onshore flow then persists through Sat before winds become 
northerly Sun. 

$$

PKZ310-240545-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
340 AM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 11 ft late.
W swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

793 
FZAK67 PAJK 232344
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-241745-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force low in the NW gulf will push a front through the 
panhandle Thu evening followed by a second front early Fri. 
Onshore flow then persists through Sat before winds become 
northerly Sun. 

$$

PKZ310-241745-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 11 ft late.
W swell. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less
than 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 6 ft in the
evening then subsiding. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

395 
FZAK67 PAJK 241157
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
357 AM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-250600-
357 AM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A low over Prince William Sound will weaken in place through
Saturday. Outlook. A gale force low will track east but remain
south of the Gulf of Alaska through Sunday night.  

$$

PKZ310-250600-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
357 AM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
SW swell shifting to the W late. 
.SAT...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or less. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday/ Rather breezy and damp day across
the panhandle. A low in the northern gulf is pushing a weather
front through the area that is producing some gusty winds,
showers, and some isolated thunderstorms along the NE gulf coast.
Currently winds of 25 to 30 kt are blowing up Lynn Canal and in
Cross Sound while some gusts to 30 mph have been seen in Juneau,
today. Rainfall been moderate at times with totals of around 1 to
nearly 3 inches in some locations over the last 24 hours.

The short range forecast features two system of note. System
number one is the one currently effecting the area. Showers over
the panhandle and 20 to 30 kt westerly flow in the gulf remains
mostly unchanged from the previous forecast. What has changed is
that the low in the northern gulf is now expected to hold
together more as it jumps inland into the southern Yukon tonight.
forecast pressure gradients in the northern inner channels
tonight are expected to reach nearly 5 mb between PAJN and PAGY.
The result is an increase in wind for a few of the northern inner
channels tonight particularly Lynn Canal (increased to 35 to 40
kt Gale), and Skagway (gusts to 40 mph now).

System number two shows up for late Wed night and Thu. This system
looks to be the stronger of the two bringing another round of rain
and wind. Winds in the gulf will feature widespread gales and
even storm force winds expected near Cape Suckling on Thu.
Panhandle winds will feature widespread small craft, and even some
gales (near the outer coast and in Clarance Strait) which is an
increase for some areas from the previous forecast. Many land
areas will also feature gusty winds with 45 to 55 mph gusts
expected for the southern panhandle and outer coast Thu. Looked at
the possibility of 60+ mph gusts, but confidence of occurrence is
low with the main low so far west, low level jet strength topping
out at around 50 to 55 kt at 925 mb, and the front weakening as
it approaches. Can't completely rule out one or two gusts that
high in isolated areas, but widespread frequent gusts of 60+ mph
are not expected.

As for rainfall, both systems will feature periods of moderate to
potentially heavy rainfall, but the heaviest rainfall will be
with the system on Thu. Overall forecast has not changed for this
with upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall expected. The highest
amounts will be in the NE gulf coast (due to W to SW flow into the
terrain) and along the southern panhandle (due to catching the
northern edge of an atmospheric river).

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday night/...The extended
period will be an active, stormy period for SE Alaska and the
surrounding waters as robust low pressure systems move through the
Gulf and into the panhandle. Cold air advection filtering into
the panhandle behind the Monday/Tuesday system will also see nippy
temperatures in some areas, and it is looking possible that parts
of the highways like White Pass may see a bit of snow Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. Thursday will see an upper level
trough displace the ridge and march across the gulf. Its surface
reflection, a strong frontal system and associated low, will bring
with it abundant wind and rain to the area. Operational models
have come into decent agreement on the gale force front entering
the panhandle on Thursday. The parent low is progged to stay over
the N Gulf through Friday before dissipating over Southcentral AK
through Saturday. This system will continue to impact the area
through at least Friday, before rain diminishes Saturday and
Sunday. There are some indications that offshore flow may become
predominant in the lower levels later on Saturday and into Sunday,
which would lead to a brief period of drier weather before
another possible system arrives late Sunday or Monday. Guidance
rapidly diverges after Monday, but it looks likely that the active
weather pattern will be set to continue.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>034-036-041>043-051>053.

&&

EAL/GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
242 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

AKZ017>029-230100-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, Port Alexander, Angoon,
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan,
Metlakatla, and Hyder
242 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...WET AND WINDY WEEK AHEAD...

A pair of storms will move through the panhandle this week
bringing a few rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty
winds. The first is currently moving through the panhandle while
the second and strongest storm is expected on Thursday.

Gale and small craft southerly winds are expected for the
northern inner channels Tuesday night, with gusts to 40 mph
likely in Skagway and along the Klondike Highway.

Into late Wednesday night and Thursday focus shifts to the
southern panhandle and outer coast where gale force winds for
marine areas and gusts to 45 to 55 mph for land areas are likely
with the next front coming in.

Rainfall amounts between 1 to 3 inches can be expected for each
system. The heaviest rainfall is expected on Thursday with the NE
gulf coast and the southern panhandle receiving the brunt of the
heavy rainfall. River rises are expected this week with a few
possibly reaching bankfull either Tuesday night or on Thursday.