Small Craft Advisory 422, NWS Juneau, AK

556 
FZAK53 PAJK 201147
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-210600-
Yakutat Bay-
347 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 20 kt in the morning. Gusts to 35 
kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft
or less. 

$$

093 
FZAK53 PAJK 202354
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-211800-
Yakutat Bay-
354 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ON TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell late. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
9 ft. Rain showers in the evening. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft
or less. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

484 
FZAK53 PAJK 211149
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-220600-
Yakutat Bay-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 9 ft.
Rain showers in the evening. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft. 

$$

012 
FZAK53 PAJK 212336
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-221745-
Yakutat Bay-
336 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding in the afternoon. Rain 
showers in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas
7 ft. Rain late. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. 
Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

206 
FZAK53 PAJK 221151
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-230600-
Yakutat Bay-
351 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers early
in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft. Rain
late. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SE swell. Showers.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

946 
FZAK53 PAJK 222330
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-231730-
Yakutat Bay-
330 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft. Rain
late. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S late. Gusts to 40 kt in
the evening. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Showers and slight chance of 
thunderstorms. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

311 
FZAK53 PAJK 231140
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 AM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-240545-
Yakutat Bay-
340 AM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
12 ft. S swell. Rain early in the morning, then showers in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S late. Gusts to 40 kt in the
evening. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Showers and slight chance of 
thunderstorms. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
13 ft. S swell. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

652 
FZAK53 PAJK 232350
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-241800-
Yakutat Bay-
350 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
Showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 11 ft. S
swell. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming E 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

285 
FZAK53 PAJK 241151
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-250600-
Yakutat Bay-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 11 ft. SW swell.
Showers.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Showers in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 

$$

527 
FZAK53 PAJK 250003
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
403 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-251815-
Yakutat Bay-
403 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E late. Seas 11 ft. S swell.
Rain showers. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

550 
FZAK53 PAJK 251128
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-260530-
Yakutat Bay-
328 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon. SW swell early in the morning. Rain showers early in 
the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

204 
FZAK53 PAJK 252318
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-261730-
Yakutat Bay-
318 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Sunday Evening through Tuesday Night as of 2PM
Sunday/...It is another relatively beautiful day across the
majority of southeast Alaska, today, as we are still within a lull
period between frontal systems. This will end very soon as a Gale
force front begins to approach the Panhandle from the Gulf,
tonight, bringing an end to the scattered to broken cloud cover
and isolated to scattered convective shower activity across the
area. It brings with it moderate to heavy rainfall with strong
gusty winds to our area of responsibility.

Model forecast Integrated Water Vapor Transport(IVT) values
approaching 1,200 kg/(ms) and appreciable Precipitable Water(PW)
values indicate a long conveyor of deep moisture available to
this system. The moisture's origin is from near the tropical
Pacific. Luckily for our area, the main brunt of it will be
aimed more toward the Graham Island and the western mainland
British Columbia area. We will still get plenty of moderate to
heavy rainfall out of this system for the Monday through Tuesday
timeframe with storm total rainfall accumulation values of around
1.5 to 3 inches over the Panhandle with the highest values being
due to topographic enhancement as the moisture comes ashore and
over the Misty Fjords / Hyder / Southern Panhandle area, due to
being so near the long moisture fetch.

Some minor instability just off the northeast Gulf coast may cause
some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms around the front
late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Stability parameters from
forecast model soundings and CAA aloft indicate this.

Winds up to Gale force and enhanced seas are likely over the Gulf
just off the outer coast of southeast Alaska as the frontal system
approaches Monday. Sustained winds over that area are expected to
get up to 40 knots. Winds will likely be up to Small Craft
Advisory criteria over much of the inner channels for the same
timeframe. Strong winds are also expected over land areas in the
southern half of the Panhandle with sustained winds of up to 25
mph and gusts up to 40 mph for Monday. Mariners traveling in the
inner channels and over the eastern Gulf should exercise extra
caution for the incoming strong winds and enhanced seas as the
frontal system approaches.

850mb model forecast temperature advection remains warm until the
cold front passes through the area Wednesday evening when the
advection turns appreciably cold with 850mb temperatures over the
northeastern Gulf waters and the extreme northern Panhandle
reaching down to the -4 to -6C range. Afternoon highs remain near
seasonable and non-impactful for the period, ranging from the
middle 40s near White Pass to near 60 as you progress southward.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s near White Pass to lower
50s with southward progression for Monday and Tuesday mornings. By
Wednesday morning, after cold frontal passage, expect low
temperatures to range from the middle 30s near White Pass to the
middle 40s for the southern Panhandle. Clouds decreasing from
overcast to broken to scattered in coverage behind the front
Tuesday night should minorly aid in cooling.

Forecast confidence remains above average as we had continued good
model agreement. A primarily GFS/NAM solution was used for the
forecast, today, yielding only minor changes. The forecast looks
to still be on track to pan out.

Another similar frontal system looks to approach The Panhandle
Thursday, which may be more impactful in terms of rainfall for
Southeast Alaska, due to the ground already being primed with
plenty of moisture from the precipitation from the early week
system.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday night/...The extended
period will be an active, stormy period for SE Alaska and the
surrounding waters as a couple of robust low pressure systems move
through the Gulf. An upper level low will have moved over the
region by Monday and be exiting to the east as an open wave trough
Wednesday. Ridging behind the low will quickly move across the
panhandle before the next upper level low tracks over the Gulf
Thursday, again staying in place for a few days. Although this
pattern has above average predictability it continues to have
spread within the timing, location and strength.

There will be a rather short period of calmer weather Wednesday
into Thursday under the upper level ridge. The late week system
expected to track across the Gulf of Alaska with very strong
maritime winds (potential to be storm force) and wave threats.
More heavy precipitation due to a long fetch of moisture pushing
northeastward into Southeast Alaska is also expected. But here
model recurrence intervals for QPF showing much larger spread.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ026-028.
     Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ027.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>036-053.

&&

JLC/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau