Gale Warning 184, NWS Juneau, AK

146 
FZAK52 PAJK 201147
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-210600-
347 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front over the central Gulf of Alaska moves into the
panhandle Monday into Tuesday. The parent low over the N gulf 
will gradually weaken through mid week before another gale force 
low moves into the southeast gulf Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-210600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
347 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...S gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-210600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
347 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the morning, then
becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft building to 15 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-210600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
347 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the morning, then
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to
16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain in the evening, then
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-210600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
347 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the morning, then
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 17 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the evening, then
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-210600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
347 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the evening, then
showers late. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

367 
FZAK52 PAJK 202355
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-211800-
355 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front over the central Gulf of Alaska moves into the
panhandle into Tuesday. The parent low over the N gulf will 
gradually weaken through mid week before another gale force low 
moves into the southeast gulf Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-211800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
355 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...S gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-211800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
355 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-211800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
355 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain in the evening, then
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-211800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
355 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the evening, then
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-211800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
355 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the evening, then
showers late. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 13 ft subsiding to
4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 PM AKDT Sun Sep 19 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Sunday Evening through Tuesday Night as of 2PM
Sunday/...It is another relatively beautiful day across the
majority of southeast Alaska, today, as we are still within a lull
period between frontal systems. This will end very soon as a Gale
force front begins to approach the Panhandle from the Gulf,
tonight, bringing an end to the scattered to broken cloud cover
and isolated to scattered convective shower activity across the
area. It brings with it moderate to heavy rainfall with strong
gusty winds to our area of responsibility.

Model forecast Integrated Water Vapor Transport(IVT) values
approaching 1,200 kg/(ms) and appreciable Precipitable Water(PW)
values indicate a long conveyor of deep moisture available to
this system. The moisture's origin is from near the tropical
Pacific. Luckily for our area, the main brunt of it will be
aimed more toward the Graham Island and the western mainland
British Columbia area. We will still get plenty of moderate to
heavy rainfall out of this system for the Monday through Tuesday
timeframe with storm total rainfall accumulation values of around
1.5 to 3 inches over the Panhandle with the highest values being
due to topographic enhancement as the moisture comes ashore and
over the Misty Fjords / Hyder / Southern Panhandle area, due to
being so near the long moisture fetch.

Some minor instability just off the northeast Gulf coast may cause
some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms around the front
late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Stability parameters from
forecast model soundings and CAA aloft indicate this.

Winds up to Gale force and enhanced seas are likely over the Gulf
just off the outer coast of southeast Alaska as the frontal system
approaches Monday. Sustained winds over that area are expected to
get up to 40 knots. Winds will likely be up to Small Craft
Advisory criteria over much of the inner channels for the same
timeframe. Strong winds are also expected over land areas in the
southern half of the Panhandle with sustained winds of up to 25
mph and gusts up to 40 mph for Monday. Mariners traveling in the
inner channels and over the eastern Gulf should exercise extra
caution for the incoming strong winds and enhanced seas as the
frontal system approaches.

850mb model forecast temperature advection remains warm until the
cold front passes through the area Wednesday evening when the
advection turns appreciably cold with 850mb temperatures over the
northeastern Gulf waters and the extreme northern Panhandle
reaching down to the -4 to -6C range. Afternoon highs remain near
seasonable and non-impactful for the period, ranging from the
middle 40s near White Pass to near 60 as you progress southward.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s near White Pass to lower
50s with southward progression for Monday and Tuesday mornings. By
Wednesday morning, after cold frontal passage, expect low
temperatures to range from the middle 30s near White Pass to the
middle 40s for the southern Panhandle. Clouds decreasing from
overcast to broken to scattered in coverage behind the front
Tuesday night should minorly aid in cooling.

Forecast confidence remains above average as we had continued good
model agreement. A primarily GFS/NAM solution was used for the
forecast, today, yielding only minor changes. The forecast looks
to still be on track to pan out.

Another similar frontal system looks to approach The Panhandle
Thursday, which may be more impactful in terms of rainfall for
Southeast Alaska, due to the ground already being primed with
plenty of moisture from the precipitation from the early week
system.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday night/...The extended
period will be an active, stormy period for SE Alaska and the
surrounding waters as a couple of robust low pressure systems move
through the Gulf. An upper level low will have moved over the
region by Monday and be exiting to the east as an open wave trough
Wednesday. Ridging behind the low will quickly move across the
panhandle before the next upper level low tracks over the Gulf
Thursday, again staying in place for a few days. Although this
pattern has above average predictability it continues to have
spread within the timing, location and strength.

There will be a rather short period of calmer weather Wednesday
into Thursday under the upper level ridge. The late week system
expected to track across the Gulf of Alaska with very strong
maritime winds (potential to be storm force) and wave threats.
More heavy precipitation due to a long fetch of moisture pushing
northeastward into Southeast Alaska is also expected. But here
model recurrence intervals for QPF showing much larger spread.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ026-028.
     Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ027.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>036-053.

&&

JLC/Fritsch

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