Small Craft Advisory 403, NWS Juneau, AK

669 
FZAK53 PAJK 092345
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 PM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-101745-
Yakutat Bay-
345 PM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 13 ft. S swell.
Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain in the morning,
then showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft late.
S swell in the evening. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. S swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

179 
FZAK53 PAJK 101254
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
454 AM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-110700-
Yakutat Bay-
454 AM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain in the morning.
Showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. S swell in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

404 
FZAK53 PAJK 102340
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-111745-
Yakutat Bay-
340 PM AKDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 7 ft overnight. 
S swell. Showers early in the evening. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas subsiding to 2 ft or less in the
afternoon. S swell in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

124 
FZAK53 PAJK 111218
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
418 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-120630-
Yakutat Bay-
418 AM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt early in the morning becoming light. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. S swell early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Patchy
fog. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

533 
FZAK53 PAJK 112313
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-121715-
Yakutat Bay-
313 PM AKDT Sat Sep 11 2021

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Showers.
.TUE...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/...A leftover low is passing
over the southern panhandle. This low will continue to weaken
tonight, allowing a brief surface ridge to build over the area
Thursday. This switch from low to high means the rain from today
will fade out leaving Thursday with a mostly dry day, but partly
to mostly cloudy skies will linger around. Wind speeds in the
panhandle and in the inner channels should be on the lighter side
as well, around 5 to 10 mph.

But the calm weather won’t last long as the next front will track
through the eastern Gulf. This front will cause winds in the gulf
and along the coast to increase throughout the day Thursday. Gale
warnings and Small Craft Advisories for the gulf and coastal
waters will be in effect by Thursday afternoon.

The stronger winds and rain will arrive in the eastern panhandle
Thursday evening and move through the rest of the inner channels
through Thursday night. This means Friday is looking like a wet
day.

The winds in the inner channels on Friday will be elevated. Very
little in the forecast was changed from earlier so we are still
expecting around 20 to 30 mph winds for most inner channels. Lynn
Canal is looking at lighter winds, but still around 15 to 25 mph.

Temperatures to finish the work week won’t be too remarkable
with lows in the 40s to low 50s and highs in the 50s to near 60.

.LONG TERM.../ Fri through Wed as of 10 pm Tue/ Upper level
pattern for the long range period continues to feature an overall
W to SW flow pattern over the panhandle. This is intermixed by an
upper level low moving through on Fri associated with the rather
strong storm in the gulf that will be active at that time. The
overall pattern becomes rather murky from Sun onward as the large
upper level low over the Bering Sea begins to drift east. How far
east it gets and how fast is a point of contention in guidance
right now with low predictability going into early next week.

At the surface the main feature of the extended is the gale force
front and low that will be moving into the panhandle Fri into Sat.
Few changes in the forecast for how this system will proceed, as
guidance seems to have a good handle on it. The initial front
will just be making landfall Fri morning with wide spread gales
across the outside waters of the gulf and increasing winds and
rain in the panhandle. The main low follows on Sat, heading toward
the Cross Sound area, weakening as it comes. Expected winds will
top out at gale force for the gulf waters and 25 to 35 kt for
various parts of the panhandle (particularly the outer coast and
southern panhandle). Rains will be heavy at times with IVT values
of around 500 to 600 bringing in ample moisture with the front,
but as the front will be moving through rather quickly overall
total rainfall from Thu night through Sat night will be in the 2
to 4 inch range (higher amounts in some isolated areas).

The forecast from the late weekend onward is rather uncertain as
far as strong systems moving through are concerned. Main reason
for this are the inconsistencies with how the Bering Sea upper
low moves east in the various models playing havoc with the
forecast. There are some indications of a new front approaching
early next week, but timing of it ranges from as early as Sun
night to as late as Mon night. What is more certain is that SW to
W flow will continue to make the panhandle damp and somewhat near
normal for temperatures through mid next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051.

&&

GJS/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
124 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

AKZ017-019>028-091730-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-Haines Borough and
Lynn Canal-Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-Salisbury Sound to
Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound
Coastal Area-Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-Inner Channels from
Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision
Coastal Area-Southern Inner Channels-
124 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...WET AND WINDY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

A strong low pressure system with subtropical moisture will move
across the Gulf of Alaska through Thursday and will impact most of
Southeast Alaska Thursday night through Saturday. This weather
system will be accompanied with gale force winds over the eastern
gulf with wave heights from 14 to 20 feet. Coastal land areas will
see strong wind gusts of 45 mph on Friday.

Moderate to heavy precipitation will move over the area from west
to east through Thursday night and last until Saturday. Storm
total amounts will range from 2 to 4 inches. This will produce sharp
rises on streams and rivers but at this time no flooding is
expected. Check back for updates on this potentially impactful
weather and hydrologic event.

bmb