Small Craft Advisory 394, NWS Juneau, AK

794 
FZAK52 PAJK 041150
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-050600-
350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low will weaken as it moves across the S panhandle
through Saturday night. Active weather continues with another 
weaker wave Sunday followed by a gale force low moving N into E 
gulf Monday night through Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-050600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to
13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-050600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to
12 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming W late. Seas 9 ft. Rain in the
evening. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft
building to 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-050600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W late. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
11 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-050600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SW late. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-050600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
350 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers in the morning, then 
rain. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 

$$

731 
FZAK52 PAJK 041805 AAA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1005 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-051215-
1005 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low will weaken as it moves across the S panhandle
through Saturday night. Active weather continues with another 
weaker wave Sunday followed by a gale force low moving N into E 
gulf Monday night through Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-051215-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
1005 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to
13 ft. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW late. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-051215-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
1005 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to
12 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft
building to 14 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-051215-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
1005 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W late. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
11 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-051215-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
1005 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SW late. Seas 6 ft.  
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-051215-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
1005 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 



$$

071 
FZAK52 PAJK 050006
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
406 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-051815-
406 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure over Dixon Entrance will weaken as it tracks NE
across the southern panhandle through Saturday night. W to SW
flow will persist on Sunday followed by a brief ridge building 
over the inner channels on Monday. Outlook. A gale force low moves
northward into the eastern gulf Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-051815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
406 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW in the evening, then W 30 kt
late. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-051815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
406 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt late. Seas 8 ft in the
evening, then subsiding. Showers.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-051815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
406 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W late. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing late. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-051815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
406 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-051815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
406 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt early in the evening becoming light, then
becoming SW 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

603 
FZAK52 PAJK 051117
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-060530-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 West to SoutWest flow will persist on Sunday followed by a brief
ridge building over the inner channels on Monday. A gale force 
low moves northward into the eastern gulf Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-060530-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-060530-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-060530-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers early in the morning,
then slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft subsiding to
5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-060530-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft subsiding to
5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-060530-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
317 AM AKDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 9 ft subsiding to
5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
304 PM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.SHORT TERM...The forecast period begins with a broad upper level
trough slowly moving E across the Gulf and the Panhandle.
Multiple upper level indentations continue to move along the edge
of the trough, indicative of a more autumn-like active weather
pattern. Mid level vorticity associated with these systems is
working in sync with cooler air aloft to produce instability which
will result in periods of more convective showers activity
interspersed between more organized bands of precipitation.

The organized bands of precipitation will arrive by means of
multiple systems which are moving into SE Alaska from the Gulf.
The current system which has made itself felt across much of the
area will move N through the day, leaving more convective
activity in its wake. By tonight, another system will have pushed
into the south-central panhandle, bringing more widespread
stratiform rain. Operational runs are consistently showing some
decent saturation through at least the mid-levels of the
atmospheric column in the southern half of the panhandle.
Consequently, think that some respectable rainfall totals will be
accrued in these areas, though flooding is not anticipated to be
a major concern at this time. The northern panhandle will not be
immune to the rain from this first system however, with chances of
rain lingering until the main system itself moves N through
Saturday evening. This will bring more widespread rain to the N
half of the panhandle, though do not expect totals to be as high
as those in the south.

Sunday will prove to be a mixed bag for the area. On one hand,
chances of widespread rain will diminish across much of the
panhandle, especially through the evening hours, as the system
departs. On the other hand, onshore flow coupled with a weak wave
moving into the area will continue to support shower activity
throughout the area. Have kept continued possibilities of showers
panhandle wide as a result.

The concern does exist that a few thunderstorms may mix in the
with the showers across the panhandle at times during the forecast
period. In particular, much of Sunday could see an isolated chance
of thunderstorms for areas south of Juneau. Some CAPE will be
present, and the LI, though not going very aggressive, does
indicate the presence of at least marginal conditions for
thunderstorm development. For the time being, have kept the
chances of these on the lower side, but conditions will need to be
closely monitored for possible changes. In particular, breaks in
the clouds could provide some additional cape, giving more impetus
to any possible thunderstorms.

Winds will continue to be a forecast challenge. The passing
systems will prevent any one wind direction from becoming too
predominant through the forecast period. Do think that many
channels will see winds of up to 15 kts with some areas near Cape
Spencer, Lynn Canal, and the Southern Panhandle seeing higher
wind speeds. Temperatures will remain moderate throughout the time
period, with the abundant cloud cover and rainfall helping to
keep the usual diurnal temperature swings on the low side.
Forecaster confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../ Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday / Broad
trough over the Gulf of Alaska early Sunday has an active short
wave moving south out of the Bering Sea and into the bottom of the
trough that will move eastward and develop as the low pulls into
the southeastern Gulf of Alaska Tuesday morning.

After Tuesday the flow aloft is much more confused with poor
agreement between the model solutions. WPC solutions is middle of
the road between the new operational solutions, with the GFS being
slightly closer to the WPC with the remains of the trough through
the panhandle area, with zonal looking pattern across the gulf as
the weekend rolls around for the Day 8/9, with shortwaves moving
through quickly, some which may be larger.

For the surface weather a low/trough passes through the panhandle
Sunday, primarily the southern half however rain and showers will
continue for northern and northeast gulf coast. Better rainfall
totals will occur over the southern half of the panhandle and
showers will linger through Monday with general onshore flow for
the panhandle.

The developing short wave will have a good reflection at the
surface winding up a moderate to strong low with a central
pressure between the mid 980s and low 990s depending on preferred
solutions. Added this feature in or amplified its impact with
tonight's forecast. Put the central pressure over the eastern
gulf waters into the upper 980s, and increased winds for Tuesday
to Gale force along the panhandle and added winds to 25 kt for
some of the marine channels. PoPs got bumped up as well, mainly
for the panhandle as the low looks to move inland over the central
panhandle.

For end of the week with the lower confidence in the models, kept
a generally wet onshore pattern and chance to to likely PoPs for
any of the rainfall. At present there doesn't seem to be good
agreement for a significant feature at the end of next week. So
winds back to a more normal 10 to 20 kt generally for the marine
area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041.

&&

GFS/Bezenek

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