Small Craft Advisory 393, NWS Juneau, AK

923 
FZAK52 PAJK 032355
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 PM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-041800-
355 PM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Winds will back from S to NE through most of the inside waters
Friday night due to a low pressure system approaching Dixon
Entrance from the SW. The gale force low will then weaken as it
moves across the S panhandle through Saturday night. Outlook. A
gale force low will track northward over the eastern gulf Monday
night through Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ041-041800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
355 PM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft 
building to 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt diminishing in the late afternoon. Seas 14 
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-041800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
355 PM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft building
to 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt late. Seas 10 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-041800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
355 PM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SW late. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-041800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
355 PM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SW late. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-041800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
355 PM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
546 AM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and sfc analysis show the back
edge of a weakening wave moving into the S panhandle early this
morning. Although the heaviest precip will diminish this morning,
precip chcs persist through the day as moist onshore flow prevails
throughout the panhandle. Active weather persists into the
weekend. After lighter precip Fri afternoon/evening, another,
stronger, low moves out the NE Pac into the SE gulf Sat. This
will bring another round of wind and rain to the region. Guidance
continues to support the low tracking across the S panhandle with
precip amounts of 0.75-1.5" through Sat night. Active weather and
cloudy skies will help keep temps near normal through the period.
Inherited forecast represented this well, with changes focused on
precip/winds for S panhandle as confidence in low track Sat
increased. Forecast confidence remains slightly above average.

.LONG TERM.../ Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday / Broad
trough over the Gulf of Alaska early Sunday has an active short
wave moving south out of the Bering Sea and into the bottom of the
trough that will move eastward and develop as the low pulls into
the southeastern Gulf of Alaska Tuesday morning.

After Tuesday the flow aloft is much more confused with poor
agreement between the model solutions. WPC solutions is middle of
the road between the new operational solutions, with the GFS being
slightly closer to the WPC with the remains of the trough through
the panhandle area, with zonal looking pattern across the gulf as
the weekend rolls around for the Day 8/9, with shortwaves moving
through quickly, some which may be larger.

For the surface weather a low/trough passes through the panhandle
Sunday, primarily the southern half however rain and showers will
continue for northern and northeast gulf coast. Better rainfall
totals will occur over the southern half of the panhandle and
showers will linger through Monday with general onshore flow for
the panhandle.

The developing short wave will have a good reflection at the
surface winding up a moderate to strong low with a central
pressure between the mid 980s and low 990s depending on preferred
solutions. Added this feature in or amplified its impact with
tonight's forecast. Put the central pressure over the eastern
gulf waters into the upper 980s, and increased winds for Tuesday
to Gale force along the panhandle and added winds to 25 kt for
some of the marine channels. PoPs got bumped up as well, mainly
for the panhandle as the low looks to move inland over the central
panhandle.

For end of the week with the lower confidence in the models, kept
a generally wet onshore pattern and chance to to likely PoPs for
any of the rainfall. At present there doesn't seem to be good
agreement for a significant feature at the end of next week. So
winds back to a more normal 10 to 20 kt generally for the marine
area.

&&

.MARINE...A weakening surface low moving through Dixon Entrance
this morning is resulting in SCA winds/seas for SE gulf and
Clarence Strait. Expect these conditions to improve through the
morning as the low continues weakening. Another low will move out
the NE Pac into the SE gulf Sat bringing another round of gales to
far SE gulf, Dixon Entrance and possibly into S Clarence Strait.
The active pattern continues into early next week with a weaker
waving following similar track Sun into Mon. Focus then shifts to
a more significant low following along a similar track Tue.
Guidance in generally good agreement on gales with this stronger
low with lower agreement on the coverage and span of gales. The
pattern persists through next week with storm track remaining
focused mainly towards the SE gulf/S panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-041.

&&

BC/Bezenek

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