Small Craft Advisory 365, NWS Juneau, AK

676 
FZAK53 PAJK 171212
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
412 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-180615-
Yakutat Bay-
412 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S wind 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft in 
the evening then 2 ft or less. SW swell in the evening. Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers in the
morning. 
.WED NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

152 
FZAK53 PAJK 171608
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
808 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-181015-
Yakutat Bay-
808 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming S late. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

645 
FZAK53 PAJK 172329
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
329 PM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-181730-
Yakutat Bay-
329 PM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt decreasing to 10 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt
early in the evening. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

881 
FZAK53 PAJK 181204
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
404 AM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-190615-
Yakutat Bay-
404 AM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SW swell early in the
morning. Patchy fog early in the morning. Showers.
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
219 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...A calm day over SE Alaska Monday before another
system impacts the region Tuesday. Low clouds and some patchy fog
from a marine layer over the gulf moved inland but many clear
breaks were seen. Heavy rain is in store once again for much of
the area Tuesday with the fast moving system but no serious
flooding is expected.

High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf continues to move eastward
through Monday evening as a low tracks south of the Aleutians
over the ridge towards the NE Gulf coast. The associated gale
force front hits the Eastern Gulf Tuesday then crosses over the
Panhandle. Position of the low and ridge sets up a southwesterly
stream of moisture bringing in heavy rain to the region. The
atmospheric river, while displaying IVT values upwards of 700
kg/ms and higher, will be relatively fast moving. Tuesday 24 hour
rainfall totals for the NE Gulf and Central Panhandle are around
1.25 to 1.75. Eastern gulf coast will near 2 inches as the AR is
aimed directly there. Elsewhere rain fall totals less than 1 inch
are likely. Western facing slopes and higher elevations will
receive the highest rainfall, as seen in QPF 5, 10, and 25 year
average recurrence intervals. The big take away from this heavy
rain event should be that no serious or impactful flooding is
expected. While many area rivers and steams saw significant rises
from previous AR events most have dropped well below bankful.
However with the ground saturated and previously developed
instability caution should still be taken on or near steep
terrain and near streams prone to rapid rises. As the gale force
front moves inland inner channel winds will pick up to small craft
levels with overland wind gusts increasing to 30 to 35 mph. As
the front and trough exit the region post frontal showers will
begin to diminish from north to south. Another weak wave does ride
over the N Pacific ridge enhancing the precip for the southern
areas late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ridging over the gulf will keep
westerly onshore flow, so for now not expecting any extended dry
periods.

As with previous days the 12z GFS was faster compared to other
models moving in the front. Kept with a NAM/Canadian solution
resulting in some minor repositioning of higher QPF. Winds over
the panhandle were bumped up again due to the passing front.
Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Monday, as of 10 PM Sunday /
Zonal flow which had established itself in the upper levels
during the first half of the week will give way to a more
unsettled upper level pattern which will bring a series of troughs
and ridges across the area through the long term. Closer to the
surface, this will be reflected in a series of relatively weak
systems which will make their way across the Gulf of Alaska and
into the panhandle. While these systems will bring with them rain
and wind, lack of a fully saturated atmospheric column will likely
prevent them from being as impactful as the systems the area
experienced during the previous week.

Beginning on Wednesday, the rain which entered the area on
Tuesday will steadily diminish in coverage and intensity. As the
system exits the panhandle, chances of rain will linger in some
areas as continued onshore flow offers continued opportunities for
orographic-induced lift. Towards the end of the week, another
chance for more organized precipitations emerges as an impulse
moves along the northern flank of a low level ridge over the N
Pacific and enters the panhandle. However, operational runs
disagree on the intensity of the system, and discrepancies in the
precip totals between various ensemble runs all point towards this
system likely being on the weaker side-if it materializes. For
the time being, have maintained chances of rain in the forecast,
but will need to continue monitoring incoming data over the coming
days.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-032-033-041-042-053.

&&

PRB/GFS

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