Gale Warning 164, NWS Juneau, AK

141 
FZAK52 PAJK 171210
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
410 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-180615-
410 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure continues to be pushed  eastward over
the Panhandle and sharpened into Wednesday. A Gale force front 
moves into the eastern Gulf Tuesday morning and marches eastward 
toward the Panhandle into Wednesday morning. Outlook: A general 
ridging pattern builds into the eastern Gulf and Panhandle while a
weak low moves into the northeastern Gulf toward the late work 
week and into the weekend. 

$$

PKZ041-180615-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
410 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-180615-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
410 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt late. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-180615-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
410 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 35 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-180615-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
410 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
13 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-180615-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
410 AM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to
13 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

287 
FZAK52 PAJK 172329
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
329 PM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-181730-
329 PM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A Gale force front in the eastern Gulf will weaken and move
eastward toward the Panhandle into Wednesday morning. A ridge of 
high pressure continues to be pushed eastward over the Panhandle 
and sharpened into Wednesday. Outlook: A general ridging pattern 
builds into the eastern Gulf and Panhandle while a weak low moves 
into the northeastern Gulf toward the late work week. 

$$

PKZ041-181730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
329 PM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft. Rain in the
evening. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-181730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
329 PM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt late. Seas building to 
13 ft. Rain early in the evening. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-181730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
329 PM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt late. Seas building to
14 ft. Rain early in the evening.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-181730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
329 PM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt early in the evening becoming SW 20 kt. 
Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-181730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
329 PM AKDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt early in the evening becoming SW 25 kt. 
Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft late. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

605 
FZAK52 PAJK 181203
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
403 AM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-190615-
403 AM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening front will continue pushing eastward into the 
Panhandle through Wednesday morning. A ridge of high pressure 
continues over the Panhandle through Wednesday night. Outlook:
A general ridging pattern builds in over the eastern Gulf and 
Panhandle while a weak wave moves into the northeastern Gulf 
toward the late work week and into the weekend. 

$$

PKZ041-190615-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
403 AM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-190615-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
403 AM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-190615-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
403 AM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-190615-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
403 AM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-190615-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
403 AM AKDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
219 PM AKDT Mon Aug 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...A calm day over SE Alaska Monday before another
system impacts the region Tuesday. Low clouds and some patchy fog
from a marine layer over the gulf moved inland but many clear
breaks were seen. Heavy rain is in store once again for much of
the area Tuesday with the fast moving system but no serious
flooding is expected.

High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf continues to move eastward
through Monday evening as a low tracks south of the Aleutians
over the ridge towards the NE Gulf coast. The associated gale
force front hits the Eastern Gulf Tuesday then crosses over the
Panhandle. Position of the low and ridge sets up a southwesterly
stream of moisture bringing in heavy rain to the region. The
atmospheric river, while displaying IVT values upwards of 700
kg/ms and higher, will be relatively fast moving. Tuesday 24 hour
rainfall totals for the NE Gulf and Central Panhandle are around
1.25 to 1.75. Eastern gulf coast will near 2 inches as the AR is
aimed directly there. Elsewhere rain fall totals less than 1 inch
are likely. Western facing slopes and higher elevations will
receive the highest rainfall, as seen in QPF 5, 10, and 25 year
average recurrence intervals. The big take away from this heavy
rain event should be that no serious or impactful flooding is
expected. While many area rivers and steams saw significant rises
from previous AR events most have dropped well below bankful.
However with the ground saturated and previously developed
instability caution should still be taken on or near steep
terrain and near streams prone to rapid rises. As the gale force
front moves inland inner channel winds will pick up to small craft
levels with overland wind gusts increasing to 30 to 35 mph. As
the front and trough exit the region post frontal showers will
begin to diminish from north to south. Another weak wave does ride
over the N Pacific ridge enhancing the precip for the southern
areas late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ridging over the gulf will keep
westerly onshore flow, so for now not expecting any extended dry
periods.

As with previous days the 12z GFS was faster compared to other
models moving in the front. Kept with a NAM/Canadian solution
resulting in some minor repositioning of higher QPF. Winds over
the panhandle were bumped up again due to the passing front.
Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Monday, as of 10 PM Sunday /
Zonal flow which had established itself in the upper levels
during the first half of the week will give way to a more
unsettled upper level pattern which will bring a series of troughs
and ridges across the area through the long term. Closer to the
surface, this will be reflected in a series of relatively weak
systems which will make their way across the Gulf of Alaska and
into the panhandle. While these systems will bring with them rain
and wind, lack of a fully saturated atmospheric column will likely
prevent them from being as impactful as the systems the area
experienced during the previous week.

Beginning on Wednesday, the rain which entered the area on
Tuesday will steadily diminish in coverage and intensity. As the
system exits the panhandle, chances of rain will linger in some
areas as continued onshore flow offers continued opportunities for
orographic-induced lift. Towards the end of the week, another
chance for more organized precipitations emerges as an impulse
moves along the northern flank of a low level ridge over the N
Pacific and enters the panhandle. However, operational runs
disagree on the intensity of the system, and discrepancies in the
precip totals between various ensemble runs all point towards this
system likely being on the weaker side-if it materializes. For
the time being, have maintained chances of rain in the forecast,
but will need to continue monitoring incoming data over the coming
days.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-032-033-041-042-053.

&&

PRB/GFS

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