Small Craft Advisory 356, NWS Juneau, AK

390 
FZAK51 PAJK 111532 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-120245-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weather front tracks NE from the Gulf into the northern and
central Panhandle this afternoon. Another front moves reaches
the central gulf Thu and stalls. A ridge of high pressure
persists across the southern Panhandle through Thu.  

$$

PKZ011-120245-
Glacier Bay-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ012-120245-
Northern Lynn Canal-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-120245-
Southern Lynn Canal-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ021-120245-
Icy Strait-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ022-120245-
Cross Sound-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft. S swell. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S late. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-120245-
Stephens Passage-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ032-120245-
Northern Chatham Strait-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ033-120245-
Southern Chatham Strait-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Near ocean
entrances, seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ034-120245-
Frederick Sound-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ035-120245-
Sumner Strait-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 
ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ036-120245-
Clarence Strait-
732 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt early becoming light, then becoming S 10 
kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, except 4 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less, except 4 ft near ocean entrances. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

737 
FZAK51 PAJK 112245
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-121530-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A front tracks NE into the northern and central Panhandle this 
afternoon, then stalls over the next couple days. At the same 
time, a ridge of high pressure persists across the southern 
Panhandle through Friday. Outlook: A wave of low pressure moves NE
into the NE Gulf Coast while its associated front pushes SE 
through the Panhandle Friday. 

$$

PKZ011-121530-
Glacier Bay-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.SAT...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-121530-
Northern Lynn Canal-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 4 
ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 4 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-121530-
Southern Lynn Canal-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-121530-
Icy Strait-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-121530-
Cross Sound-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-121530-
Stephens Passage-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-121530-
Northern Chatham Strait-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-121530-
Southern Chatham Strait-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain late. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-121530-
Frederick Sound-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain late. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-121530-
Sumner Strait-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-121530-
Clarence Strait-
245 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less, except 4 ft near ocean entrances. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
953 PM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.UPDATE...Rain chances, timing and QPF values are firming up with
the atmospheric river (AR) moving into the area starting
Wednesday. 4 to 7 inches around Yakutat through Friday morning.
The AR drifts SE to the norhtern pahandle lat Thrusday, starting
some heavier rains there, but a developing wave on the front will
move into the northeast gulf, increasing rains Friday where 2 to 5
inches could fall in in short period of time. With the increasing
confidence have issued Watches for much of the norhtern panhandle
for the possiblity of flooding from rivers or full drainage area.
Stay tuned for further information regarding changes to this
watch.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......Issued at 3 pm Tuesday

SHORT TERM...Another front passed today while the next one is on
deck, continuing our week of active weather. A westerly jet lies
over the region and the surface front that passed mid-day has
cause a wind shift to the west as well. Satellite imagery this
afternoon shows standing mountain wave clouds, highlighting those
west winds aloft, and causing large breaks in the clouds over many
of the inside channels. This is the beginning of a lull in
precipitation that will last into early Wednesday.

Relatively light rain today along with some breaks in precipitation
in the evening will allow area rivers to slow or subside. However,
back to back rainfall events has the ground already saturated and
therefore rivers will respond quicker with the next system. Rain
with an atmospheric river arrives over the northern panhandle
Wednesday morning and continues through the end of the week. The
heaviest rain with the front will initially fall over the Yakutat
area, where 48 hour rainfall totals are expected to be 5 to 7 inches
with greater amounts possible in the mountains. The rest of the
northern panhandle will see 48 hour (Wed-Thu) rainfall totals closer
to the 2 inch mark with greatest amounts further north and along
westward facing slopes. These 2 day totals are on par with 1 year
return intervals (fairly normal for fall), but will still need to
monitor rates if those amounts fall in a shorter amount of time.

Models are showing waves or even new low centers tracking northward
along the front, which isn't unusual since it's in line with the
jet, but those can cause big changes in rainfall rates and
many times make the fire hose waver and back and forth. Looking
ahead into the long-range forecast, one of those new lows will
enhance rates and cause as the main front to shift SE on Friday.
However, timing of that shift remains somewhat uncertain. The
biggest adjustment in thinking with this forecast package is that
rainfall amounts from this event, outside of Yakutat, could end up
being highest on Friday.

Not to be left out! The southern panhandle looks to have a nice
reprieve from the rain and even some sunshine the next two days. A
ridge of high pressure building in from the S-SW will cause winds to
decrease tonight and even become somewhat variable. With light
winds, breaks in the clouds, wet ground from recent rain and
outgoing tide Wednesday morning, fog seems likely. So we have
expanded areas of fog in the forecast to some of the southern
marine areas tonight/Wed morning.

LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Tuesday / As of Monday evening. A 500
mb ridge axis is just east of the panhandle starting Thursday
putting a strong southwest flow pattern that will be tracking
systems and moisture into the panhandle to Saturday afternoon when
a trough lifts through the panhandle. A brief break Sunday might
be in the wings for Sunday as a weak ridge moves into the eastern
gulf and panhandle. Should expect an increase of PoP early next
week after the brief break.

Thursday an atmospheric River will be aimed at the northeast gulf
coast and northern panhandle bringing with it several inches of
rain. A secondary wave on the frontal band will lift across the
gulf of Alaska and to the northern portion of the panhandle
bringing another collection of moisture into the northeast Gulf
Coast and this will bring another few inches of rain. The front
and these waves will keep nearly all the rain away from the
southern portion of the panhandle. The wave Friday-Friday night
will actually move the front east more quickly with more of a
west to east track, so rains will finally arrive for the southern
panhandle Friday night/Saturday.

The rest of the panhandle will wind down with showers through
late Saturday into Sunday, and going scattered or less for shower
activity for Sunday and perhaps Monday. The extended solutions of
ensembles show rain back for next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for
     AKZ018>023-025.
     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning for
     AKZ017.
     Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-041>043-051>053.

&&

 Bezenek/Ferrin/Bezenek

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