Small Craft Advisory 349, NWS Juneau, AK

189 
FZAK53 PAJK 091234
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
434 AM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-100645-
Yakutat Bay-
434 AM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
building to 14 ft in the afternoon. S swell in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

699 
FZAK53 PAJK 092313
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-101715-
Yakutat Bay-
313 PM AKDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt
late. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
building to 12 ft in the afternoon. S swell in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas
13 ft. S swell. Showers.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

921 
FZAK53 PAJK 101203
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
403 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-110615-
Yakutat Bay-
403 AM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Gusts to
40 kt early in the morning. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon. S swell in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 13 ft.
Showers.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell in the morning.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

262 
FZAK53 PAJK 102328
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 PM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-111730-
Yakutat Bay-
328 PM AKDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Showers in the
evening. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

763 
FZAK53 PAJK 111134
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-120545-
Yakutat Bay-
334 AM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell in the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

884 
FZAK53 PAJK 112246
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
246 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-121700-
Yakutat Bay-
246 PM AKDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

115 
FZAK53 PAJK 121054
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-130500-
Yakutat Bay-
254 AM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

370 
FZAK53 PAJK 122330
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-131730-
Yakutat Bay-
330 PM AKDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell in the morning. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

565 
FZAK53 PAJK 131128
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 AM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-140530-
Yakutat Bay-
328 AM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft in the morning subsiding to 7 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

299 
FZAK53 PAJK 131846 AAA
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1046 AM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-141300-
Yakutat Bay-
1046 AM AKDT Fri Aug 13 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing late. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
236 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday/... Rain, rain, and more rain. Two
fronts will move in during the short term period and the third
system, an atmospheric river, moves in mid-week and is further
discussed in the long term portion below. The current satellite
shows heavy rainfall rates in Cordova and rainfall starting in
Yakutat as the first front moves into the Panhandle from north to
south.

The first system is bringing heavy at times rainfall and gusty
winds. This front moves through by Monday morning, but many areas
will experience showers throughout the day before the second
front pushes in Monday evening into Tuesday. Rainfall rates are
forecasted to be lighter with this system, but back-to-back
rainfall may be enough to cause flooding and enhance run-off.
Additional information can be in found in the Special Weather
Statement.

Gusty winds are expected from both systems. Strong wind with gusts
up to 45 mph are expected in Skagway starting tonight through
tomorrow. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible across SE AK as each
front moves in. Winds 25 to 30 knots in the majority of the inside
waters, decreasing to 15 knots or less once each system passes.
Barrier jet gales forecasted along Yakutat's coast, also
decreasing as the front passes.

Temperatures are forecasted to remain in the 50s due to lower than
normal highs and warmer than normal lows from cloud cover. The
exception is the southern thirds of the panhandle with highs in
the 60s on Tuesday and an upward trend in high temperatures into
mid-week.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through next Sunday/ While incredible vapor
transport advects across the Panhandle all next week, the
subtleties of identifying when that moisture wrings out to
rainfall, and for our purposes, heavy rainfall will be the
challenge for the next few days. This especially holds true in
the extended forecast period.

Ensembles, to be clear not all members, generally paint a picture
of an increasingly anticyclonic curvature across the Panhandle
leading into Tuesday. This should suggest diminished forcing and
more subsidence which would serve as an inhibitor of rainfall.
However, the continued westerly flow through most levels of the
atmosphere against the complex terrain of Southeast will not erase
rain from the forecast. Rather, rainfall eases Tuesday into
Tuesday night as subtle ridging develops between systems. Where
anticyclonic curvature is greater, across the south, rain chances
should drastically fall. However, where terrain is higher across
the north and curvature is a little less anticyclonic, we still
think rain is likely to fall, but amounts will be far less than
that due Sunday afternoon/night and again Monday night.

While the earlier systems from the week each carry a good source
of moisture and should prime the soils of Southeast Alaska with a
solid dose of rainfall, it is the developing system for mid- week
that is most concerning. Our mid-week storm, fully swollen from
the entrails of post-tropical storm Nida, 91W, and Mirinae will
arrive in true atmospheric river form. As it glides into the gulf,
initial lift from a warm surge of air raises freezing levels to
near 12K feet and likely brings heavy rainfall for the northern
Panhandle. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index states that over 90
percent of ensemble members are forecasting extreme
precipitation, basically defined as one standard deviation above
the mean forecast by the ECMWF initialized during a five week
period between 2000 and 2021, thus adding confidence. In addition,
curvature begins to bend cyclonically across the northern gulf
which would exacerbate forcing across the northern Panhandle,
aside from the higher terrain influence. Even the conservative
NBM has pushed precipitation high in this time frame, which formed
a basis for our QPF forecast, nudged with the last couple of runs
of ECMWF and GFS. All told, our initial assessment of some areas
across the north from Yakutat to Pelican/Elfin Cove across
Gustavus to Juneau could experience 5 to 7 inches of rainfall
during a five- day period (from Sunday to Thursday). How this
evolves is subject to debate. Some solutions press this
atmospheric river slowly southward through Friday albeit in
slowly weakening form. Greater spread in ensembles could account
for weakening signatures rather than the complete disappearance
of this week's series of storms. In other words, the caboose is
not yet in sight.

Two other important items to note in the forecast are an increase
in winds and increasing temperatures across the entire region,
especially on Thursday. We pushed Inner Channel winds up to small
craft Tuesday/Tuesday night with some gale force southwesterlies
across the eastern Gulf of Alaska. We fully expect to have to
increase winds even further with the Wednesday/Thursday storm, but
gradients as of yet are only hinted at. But we have begun to push
northern Inner Channel winds higher in the interim. Finally,
Ketchikan temperatures on Thursday may spike in the low 70s as
very warm ridging heats up to the atmosphere across the southern
Panhandle late in the week. An 80 is not out of the question in
Hyder. Chances of rain are still there, as these atmospheric
rivers could subtly meander at times, but increasingly likely is
that the southern Panhandle will avoid much of the mid-week storm
aimed at the north.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through Monday afternoon
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>033-036-041>043.

&&

KRT/JWA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

AKZ017>029-091500-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, Port Alexander, Angoon,
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan,
Metlakatla, and Hyder
337 PM AKDT Sun Aug 8 2021

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS WEEK...

Multiple weather systems will bring heavy rain to the Panhandle
late Sunday through the end of this week with increased confidence
on rainfall amounts. The first of two systems has already begun in
Yakutat with heavy rainfall and will impact the rest of the
region Sunday night through Monday morning. The second arrives
Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Rainfall totals of 1 to 4
inches are expected Sunday evening through Tuesday with the
highest amounts across the northeast Gulf Coast and along higher
terrain.

Starting Wednesday, an atmospheric river will develop with the
axis of heaviest rain aimed at the NE Gulf Coast and Northern
Panhandle. There is still some uncertainty in the timing and
placement of the heaviest rain. However, confidence remains high
that a few areas could see an additional 3 to 6 plus inches of
rainfall from this system by Friday. Due to back to back heavy
rainfall events, please be alert to sharp rises in water levels
with some streams nearing bankful, and possible flooding. Along
with flooding potential, isolated landslides are also a concern.
Stay up to date on the latest forecasts through the week as this
event evolves.