Small Craft Advisory 344, NWS Juneau, AK

282 
FZAK52 PAJK 031142
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
342 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-040545-
342 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low tracking into the SE Gulf early Tuesday will remain in
place through late Wednesday. The low will then shift eastward
while weakening Thursday into Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-040545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
342 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-040545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
342 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-040545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
342 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain late. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-040545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
342 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-040545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
342 AM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

764 
FZAK52 PAJK 032338
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-041745-
338 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low in the SE Gulf will remain in place through late Wednesday.
The low will then shift eastward while weakening Thursday into 
Friday.


$$

PKZ041-041745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
338 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the 
morning.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers late. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ042-041745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
338 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ043-041745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
338 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain late. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the evening.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ051-041745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
338 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or
less. 

$$

PKZ052-041745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
338 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

418 
FZAK52 PAJK 041154
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-050600-
354 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low will remain in the SE gulf through late Wednesday then
shift eastward while weakening Thursday into Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-050600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
354 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. Showers late. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-050600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
354 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft subsiding. Rain in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-050600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
354 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas building to 8 ft early, then 
subsiding. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-050600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
354 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-050600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
354 AM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

146 
FZAK52 PAJK 042342
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-051745-
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
An area of low pressure in the gulf will remain in the gulf 
through tonight. This low will begin to move eastward Thursday 
then weaken and fade out late Thursday through Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-051745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers late. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding. Showers in the morning.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-051745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light.
Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-051745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers in the evening.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-051745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light.
Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-051745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
342 PM AKDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKDT Mon Aug 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...An upper level low over the gulf continues through
midweek. Clouds cover the panhandle. Over the Northcentral British
Columbia, our anticipated Easterly wave is moving north-west and
satellite detection is showing active convection with this band.
Believe that this will skirt past the northern panhandle this
evening.

There is some colder topped clouds starting to move towards the
southern half of the panhandle so a shot of light rain for that
section of the panhandle is possible. A more enhanced band over the
north pacific will be caught up about the upper level low and will
form into a frontal band and move onshore Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Wednesday looks to be even a better for rain as a weaker atmospheric
river (IVT values about 400-600) is anticipated to curl in the
southern panhandle about the quasi stationary 500 mb low. Surface
level amounts of rain fall look to be in the 1-2 inch range, while
higher elevations may get a little more. Will need to watch this
over the next few shifts to fine tune rain estimates and to see if
some of the local streams and rivers may have issue. For the time
being, can expect rises in water levels but staying within the banks.

With the Tuesday frontal band, a narrow band of 25 kt small craft
over the southern outside to near southern Prince of Wales Island is
expected. Coastal communities could see gusts 20 to 30 kt.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday night/...An upper low with
a surface reflection will be situated over the central Gulf at
the start of this extended range forecast period. At the surface,
a front associated with the surface low will be affecting the
southern half of the Panhandle and the outer coast from Cape
Fairweather south. Models are all in agreement that this front
will affect much of the Panhandle, but differ in timing of the
push on shore and, most importantly, where and when the heavy rain
will fall. Those details represent the lowest confidence part of
this forecast. At present, the long range forecast has the
heaviest rain on Wednesday afternoon over southern Baranof Island,
Prince of Wales Island, and the Ketchikan area with the event
beginning at the tail end of the short range forecast. Categorical
PoPs are currently limited to locations from Angoon south and it
appears that the northeast gulf coast and the far northern inner
channels may be completely shut out from getting any measurable
rain from this event. By Friday the low and associated front will
have moved off to the southeast and a weak ridge will be shifting
east across the Gulf, giving us a day of dry weather. However, a
weak short wave will work its way over the top of the ridge and
increase the chance for rain once again late Friday night going
into the weekend.

Friday will feature small craft southeasterlies over the central
and southern outer coast marine zones. There is also the
potential for small craft winds over southern Chatham Strait and
Clarence Strait. These winds will relax by Wednesday afternoon as
the strongest winds retrograde to the west over offshore zone
310. Apart from this period of time, the long range forecast does
not contain any significant winds.

Daily highs were off the charts in grids with some locations
featuring highs in the 90s. Not only is this unrealistic, it was
WAY above all ensemble and deterministic model guidance. Changes
to temperatures represented the biggest change to this long term
forecast with reductions as much as 15 degrees in some cases. Even
so, daytime highs for the coming week will range from the mid 60s
to the mid 70s and quite comfortable for early August. -Fritsch

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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