Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 318, NWS Juneau, AK

June 25, 2021

NWS Juneau, AK issued this small craft advisory at Jun 25, 2021, 3:28 PM AKDT. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 25, 2021, 3:28 PM AKDT (23:28 UTC)
Expired: Jun 26, 2021, 2:14 AM AKDT
In force: 11 hr
Issued by: NWS Juneau, AK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jun 25, 3:18 PM AKDT, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 25, 3:18 PM AKDT, 10 minutes before

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...Periods of rain continue over the northern panhandle
this evening while the southern inner channels are starting to
break out. The Yakutat area is expected to get another round of
moderate rainfall late tonight into Saturday morning. The jet
stream and a surface front were the culprits for all the recent
rainfall and the jet looks to remain over the panhandle through
the weekend with strong S-SW flow. This is due to a large upper
level high pressure stationed over the Pacific NW/southern British
Columbia and low pressure over the Bering Sea, locked in a
blocked pattern.

The change in weather comes from a change in the
surface to 850mph, in sharp contrast to the prevailing upper
levels. Surface high pressure has been building across the south
today (Kake is already up to 1027mb) and will shift north through
tonight. That will help to push the rainfall away W-NW, shift
wind directions through many of the inside waters out of the
north, and dry out the region. The southern inner channels will
see the strongest NWLY winds while the northern inner channels
likely shifts back to the south with afternoon sea breezes.

Burying the lead a bit here...the BIG story is the HOT
temperatures. 850mb temps are progged to go from around +10c today
to +20c tomorrow over the south! For this reason, record highs in
the 80s are in the forecast for the southern panhandle over the
weekend and widespread upper 60s to mid 70s for the north/central
areas. Some uncertainty with the temperature forecast due to the
upper level pattern potentially keeping some high clouds around.
Afternoon CU development across the south could put a damper on
temps there too. While model POP is low, CAPE is high along the
southern border, so have included a slight chance of thunderstorms
for Sunday afternoon near Hyder.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...A large blocking ridge from
the Pacific NW states north through British Columbia to NW Canada
has impressive heights centered over the south central British
Columbia with the top height of the 500 mb ridge near 600 dam.
Very warm air mass is under the ridge. The ridge axis holds into
Monday but starts shifting slowly east late Monday and Tuesday to
allow a trough to lift NE through the gulf and into the Panhandle.
Will need to keep an eye on this, as it hasn't been around in
successive solutions, and models have a tendency to want to push
ridges out the way quickly.

For the time being having tried to indicate that the trough will
advance. In doing so the very warm airmass will get shoved out of
SEAK taking those upper 70s to mid 80s temperature with it. With
850 mb temperatures in the mid teens to lower 20s Celsius of much
of the panhandle Sunday and Monday, have raise highs those days a
few degrees from what was there. Analysis of sounding climatology
reveal the 17 C mark at 850 as near record territory for the
date.

After that happens early next week flow pattern is still a little
confused and the ridge aloft over the western portion of Canada
still has most weather systems stalled. A weak onshore flow
continues from the mid week towards the end of the week. Models
are indicating maybe a weak feature right at the end of the week
so rain chances will be increasing from none and low chances to
better chances by Friday.

Concerns for the for long term forecast may be the development of
convection in British Columbia from Sunday to Wednesday and
whether it gets a chance to try and move into the panhandle. Also
cloud cover is concern with this along or onshore flow, and the
models wanting to show partly cloudy or better sky cover.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ031-041>043-051-052.

&&

Ferrin/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 25, 3:27 PM AKDT, 1 minute before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 24, 8:44 PM AKDT	Areal Flood Advisory	AJK		13 hr
Jun 25, 12:13 PM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AJK		3 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021 Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.