Small Craft Advisory 317, NWS Juneau, AK

724 
FZAK51 PAJK 252328
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-261600-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge slowly builds over the gulf through the weekend and will 
continue over the gulf through the first half of next week.
 

$$

PKZ011-261600-
Glacier Bay-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt early in the evening becoming light.
Seas 2 ft or less. Rain early in the evening. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-261600-
Northern Lynn Canal-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Gusts to 35 kt 
early in the evening. Seas 5 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less.
Rain. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-261600-
Southern Lynn Canal-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Gusts to
35 kt early in the evening. Seas 3 ft early in the evening then 2
ft or less. Rain early in the evening. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-261600-
Icy Strait-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 3 ft
early in the evening then 2 ft or less. Rain early in the
evening. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-261600-
Cross Sound-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain early in the evening. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-261600-
Stephens Passage-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 3 ft
in the evening then 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-261600-
Northern Chatham Strait-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the evening.
Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-261600-
Southern Chatham Strait-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-261600-
Frederick Sound-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 3 ft
early in the evening then 2 ft or less. Patchy fog late. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then
2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-261600-
Sumner Strait-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. Patchy fog late. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the
afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-261600-
Clarence Strait-
328 PM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 
3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
550 AM AKDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...A steady stream of moisture is flowing from south to
north across the central Gulf and over the northeast gulf coast as
of this morning. A majority of this precipitation is directed at
Yakutat where rain, moderate at times through the night has also
resulted in reduced visibilities at the airport. Lighter rain has
spilled over to the east with precipitation being reported in
most other Panhandle sites at times through the night. As the band
of precipitation shifts east through the day, rain rates will
increase over the northern inner channels, then diminish this
evening. At that time, another band of precipitation will stream
north and once again be focused over the northeast gulf coast. As
we get into Saturday, this band will shift slightly to the west
and slowly diminish through Saturday night. Precip farther to the
east will largely dry up by Saturday morning with the remainder of
Southeast Alaska dry through the remainder of the short term
forecast period.

A warmer low level airmass is already in place and this is
reflected in above normal temperatures observed in the daily
climate messages for Sitka, Yakutat, Ketchikan and Juneau
yesterday. With a lack of rain later today over the southern half
of the Panhandle, temperatures there today in the mid to upper 60s
will be noticeably warmer than over the northern half. By
tomorrow, that warmth will shift north with southern locations
getting even warmer - to the mid 70s and possibly as high as the
mid 80s. Where's the air conditioner, Mabel?

Winds over the eastern gulf will generally be 20 kts or less out
of the southeast with some pockets of 25 kts through Saturday
afternoon before shifting to the northwest Saturday evening. Small
craft advisories are in place for the coastal marine zones,
however, due to high seas. No advisories for the inner channels
for this short term forecast.

A flood advisory remains in effect for the Taiya River due to
excessive rain and snowmelt until noon today (Friday). The river
appears to have crested overnight at slightly below minor flood
stage, so confidence in the advisory expiring on time is above
average.

PoP and QPF updated using a blend of NAM12 and GFS. Winds over the
gulf adjusted using primarily NAM. No other changes to the short
term forecast. Confidence is above average.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...A large blocking ridge from
the Pacific NW states north through British Columbia to NW Canada
has impressive heights centered over the south central British
Columbia with the top height of the 500 mb ridge near 600 dam.
Very warm air mass is under the ridge. The ridge axis holds into
Monday but starts shifting slowly east late Monday and Tuesday to
allow a trough to lift NE through the gulf and into the Panhandle.
Will need to keep an eye on this, as it hasn't been around in
successive solutions, and models have a tendency to want to push
ridges out the way quickly.

For the time being having tried to indicate that the trough will
advance. In doing so, the very warm airmass will get shoved out
of SEAK taking those upper 70s to mid 80s temperature with it.
With 850 mb temperatures in the mid teens to lower 20s Celsius
over much of the panhandle Sunday and Monday, have raised highs
those days a few degrees from what was there. Analysis of sounding
climatology reveal the 17 C mark at 850 as near record territory
for the date.

After that happens, early next week flow pattern is still a
little confused and the ridge aloft over the western portion of
Canada still has most weather systems stalled. A weak onshore flow
continues from the mid week towards the end of the week. Models
are indicating maybe a weak feature right at the end of the week
so rain chances will be increasing from none and low chances to
better chances by Friday.

Concerns for the for long term forecast may be the development of
convection in British Columbia from Sunday to Wednesday and
whether it gets a chance to try and move into the panhandle. Also
cloud cover is concern with this along or onshore flow, and the
models wanting to show partly cloudy or better sky cover.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Areal Flood Advisory until noon AKDT today for AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051>053.

&&

Fritsch/Bezenek

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