Small Craft Advisory 312, NWS Juneau, AK

044 
FZAK53 PAJK 232340
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-241745-
Yakutat Bay-
340 PM AKDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 25 kt. Gusts
to 40 kt late. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 9 ft. 
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

874 
FZAK53 PAJK 241146
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-250600-
Yakutat Bay-
346 AM AKDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
253 PM AKDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Thursday / A weak feature in the southeast
gulf will hold just off the coast of the southwestern portion of
the panhandle, and may spread some light rain into the southern
panhandle tonight. Wednesday will see a significant frontal band
lift across the gulf, and the various model solutions are in good
agreement on it. A good moisture laden stream with mid tropic
source is falling into the category of weak to moderate
atmospheric river for Southeast Alaska, anticipate that 1.5 to 3
inches of rain from it. The front spreads into the panhandle
Wednesday afternoon and night. For Thursday, the ridge of high
pressure will start to rebuild slightly so the moisture stream
from the gulf will start to be pushed northward. By late Thursday
the reestablished moisture plume will be heading inland near
Yakutat.

With the strong flow pattern out of the south, the British
Columbia Coast and southern panhandle will see the start of a
warm lower level air mass for the Southern Panhandle. The Ridge
over the British Columbia area will also be warming, and upper
level height will rising with them. 500 mb heights Thursday night
over the southern panhandle will start to rise above 580 dam, and
it seems to be just the start. Temperatures in that area will
start to push the lower 60s even in the lingering rain.

Narrow band of gale force winds for the coastal waters of the
panhandle and Northeast Gulf coast. Small craft level winds should
be increasing through parts of the inner channels.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through next Tuesday/...While there is no
denying a moderate to strong atmospheric river douses the
Panhandle mid-week, there is still some questions of how long it
lasts, how it evolves throughout its lifespan, and what this means
for Southeast Alaska's late week and weekend forecast.

At this point, a strong front stalls over the northern and central
Panhandle bringing moderate to heavy rain at times through mid-day
Thursday. But there is now increasing evidence of a wave forming
along the AR well to the south. This should briefly give the
Panhandle a break in the precip late Thursday into Thursday night
before another round of moderate precipitation afflicts the
northern Panhandle into the early part of the weekend. Should some
models possess a good handle on this wave, southerly breezy
conditions could set up once again for the Inner Channels late
Friday/early Saturday, but exactly when and where is debatable.
Unfortunately, this wave in turn delays any significant ridging
that expands from our south by 24 to 48 hours or so. QPF therefore
was lowered on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, but raised
on Friday into Saturday evening. This was a change as before, we
had been lowering pops this weekend. Looking beyond, we still are
confident that the ridge finally sets up over the eastern gulf by
early next week allowing a nice, warm start to next week.

A different story emerges for the southern Panhandle including
Prince of Wales, Misty Fjords, and the southern Inner Channels
including Ketchikan. While the AR targets the northern and to some
extend the central Panhandle, a warm air mass settles across the
southern region with subsidence and very high snow levels. Snow
levels could eclipse 12K feet at times over the south. For this
reason, we significantly warmed temperatures for the southern
Panhandle from Thursday onward, especially into the weekend.
Hyder could break into the lower 80s at times this weekend with
Ketchikan also pushing deep into the 70s. Likely a stark boundary
sets up between the rain- cooled air to the north and the very
warm temperatures to the south. Sitka, Kake, Petersburg, and
Wrangell should all find themselves in this transitional zone.
While Sitka we left cooler because of the tendency for a chilly
gulf breeze, we pushed the central communities well into the 60s.
But it could be much cooler or warmer depending on how things play
out. Some of this warmer air presses northward as the responsible low
well to our west that aims the atmospheric river to Southeast
Alaska shores weakens. This allows a new low to form even farther
west in the eastern Aleutians. In turn the ridge to our southeast
extends northwest, and even the northern Inner Channels dry out and
warm up by early next week. Still not confident enough to go 70s
in the north, as the ECMWF ensembles are still not as bullish as
the GEFS. But we shall study it hard.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Webcam images from Suicide Basin show a slow, but
noticeable fall in water levels in the basin since about Sat.
There are no indications of any significant release of water from
Suicide Basin yet, we are watching Suicide Basin closely, but the
water levels in the basin are a good 60 to 70 meters below what
they peaked at in 2020 so any release at this time will be small.

The heavier rains moving through the are Wednesday and Thursday
will add to the fun, however, we are only expecting rises on
rivers and streams, not flooding.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ042-043-051.

&&

Bezenek/JWA

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