Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Juneau, AK

861 
FZAK52 PAJK 131307
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140715-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low lies stationary over Bristol Bay today. A ridge persists 
over BC through Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a storm force low 
arrives in the eastern gulf on Thursday. 

$$

PKZ041-140715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt late. Seas 14 ft
building to 20 ft late. 
.THU...SE storm force wind to 60 kt. Seas 31 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 29 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 13 ft
building to 18 ft late. 
.THU...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 29 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 12 ft
building to 16 ft late. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 60 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Snow showers in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 20 ft building to
28 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow in the morning, then rain
in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
240 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...Storm force low moved into and then over the AK
Panhandle this morning through the afternoon. High winds developed
as the low tracked northward with some locations reaching gusts
of over 60 mph. In addition to the high winds heavy rain
developed with 6 hour rain fall amounts upwards of 0.50 inches.
Since the low moved overland it lost much of its energy and as
seen in satellite imagery showing rapid dissipation. While a
majority of precip fell as rain, cooler air aloft began to mix
down resulting in some sleet and snow mixed in with the rain. At
this time, besides higher elevations, only minimal accumulation
likely. High pressure builds over the eastern gulf and panhandle
as the low exits to the north late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Winds drop off at this time with southerly winds in the 10 to 20
kt range. Showers will become scattered and some clear breaks
might develop due to instability. However with onshore flow
producing influx of moisture kept mostly cloudy skies. Colder air
continues to moves in so might see some of the lingering showers
as snow, but once again no significant accumulations.

For Thursday another strong system moves into the region with an
85 kt low level jet. At least storm force winds along the coastal
waters with small craft to gale force winds over inner channels.
Coastal land areas might develop high winds with gusts to 60 mph
if a wave, indicated by GFS, develops along the front. Still a
fair amount of model agreement on details but ensembles are
aligned for the higher than normal winds and rainfall. Any snow
due to previous cooler temps should change to all rain as strong
southerly winds develop. For higher elevations snow fall
accumulation for Thursday into Friday upwards of 10 to 18 inches
is possible, but once again with model spread low confidence in
exact amounts.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday night/...The long range
forecast period begins with an upper low which will move north out
of the N Pacific and into the western central Gulf by Friday
morning. As this happens, an upper ridge will continue to build
and then be displaced to the east into Canada as a trough axis
pivots north about the low. The upper low will retrograde
northwest and become absorbed in the upper flow as large scale
onshore flow dominates the eastern Gulf Friday night heading into
Saturday. This same pattern is expected to repeat itself through
the next week. Another upper low approaches the central Gulf from
the southwest on Saturday with southwest flow setting up Sunday
as this system becomes absorbed in the main upper flow. Another
system on its heels for Monday follows nearly the same track as
the parade of storms continues.

At the surface, a low heads towards Kodiak Island while an
associated storm force front pushes into the Panhandle. The parade
of storm systems continue through early next week with another
strong front approaching the region Saturday afternoon and then
another one Monday morning. Expect an increase in winds in the
gulf and through the Inner Channels as each front approaches.
Currently, the Thursday front looks to be the strongest of the
three with an associated 85 kt low level jet barreling into the
Panhandle. The high wind potential for the outer coast will need
to be monitored closely for Thursday with winds this strong just
above the surface.

The sensible weather pattern will continue to be wet, as is
typical for this time of the year, with multiple fronts and waves
bringing plenty of precipitation. The general onshore pattern will
provide for continued warmer (relatively speaking) air such that
the precip type will be predominantly rain for lower elevations
except the higher elevations along the Haines and Klondike
Highways.

Overall model agreement is good for the long term regarding the
general weather pattern. However, there are disagreements between
models regarding the finer details of the forecast, which is to
be expected this far out. Used a blend of EC/Canadian for winds
and timing of the front on Thursday, which brings it in 6 hours
faster than the GFS. Trended towards WPC for the latter part of
the long term, which heavily used the EC and EC ensembles. Despite
model differences, there is high confidence that this wet and
warmer pattern will continue into early next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ026-027.
     Strong Wind from 3 AM AKST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ022.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind until 3 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ028.
     Strong Wind Tuesday afternoon for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041-042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>036-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-051>053.

&&

EAL/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1009 AM AKST TUE JAN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST PORT ALEXANDER          56.25N 134.65W
01/12/2021  M63 MPH          SITKA              AK   BUOY

            PORT ALEXANDER TIDE GAUGE HAD A GUST OF
            60MPH AT 824AM AND A PEAK GUST OF 63 MPH AT
            842AM.

&&

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1150 AM AKST TUE JAN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE JUNEAU            58.30N 134.39W
01/12/2021  M77 MPH          JUNEAU             AK   MESONET

            MESONET STATION TRMA2 MOUNT ROBERTS TRAM.

1052 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N DOUGLAS             58.29N 134.39W
01/12/2021  M64 MPH          PKZ031             AK   MESONET

            MESONET STATION JMLA2 AML DOCK JUNEAU.

1048 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE MENDENHALL VALLEY 58.35N 134.58W
01/12/2021  M61 MPH          JUNEAU             AK   ASOS

            ASOS STATION PAJN JUNEAU AIRPORT.

&&