Small Craft Advisory 27, NWS Juneau, AK

905 
FZAK52 PAJK 121034
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
134 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-130445-
134 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Low pressure lies stationary over the western gulf as a ridge of
high pressure persists across northern BC through Monday night. A
storm force low lifts NW along the gulf coast Monday night and 
moves onshore near Cross Sound Tuesday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ041-130445-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
134 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.EARLY THIS MORNING...E wind 55 kt. Seas 31 ft. Rain.
.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 65 kt in the morning. Seas 24 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt late.
Seas 21 ft building to 30 ft. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
early in the evening, then rain. 
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell in the
evening. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. 



$$

PKZ042-130445-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
134 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.EARLY THIS MORNING...E wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 29 ft subsiding to 20 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming E 50 kt late. Seas building to 
26 ft. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 65 kt in the morning. Seas 29 ft subsiding to 20 ft in
the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 



$$

PKZ043-130445-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
134 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.EARLY THIS MORNING...E wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft.
Rain showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Seas building to 
22 ft. Rain showers early in the evening. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 



$$

PKZ051-130445-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
134 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 
ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 



$$

PKZ052-130445-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
134 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 



$$

614 
FZAK52 PAJK 121316
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
416 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-130730-
416 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low 50 nm SW of Cape Decision makes landfall
around Sitka by mid-morning, arrives at Glacier Bay by mid-day
before moving into NW Canada this afternoon. A ridge of high
pressure builds across BC this afternoon with low pressure
anchored near Kodiak Island through early Wednesday. Outlook.
Another storm force low arrives in the eastern gulf Thu.   

$$

PKZ041-130730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
416 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 31 ft subsiding to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...SE storm force wind to 55 kt becoming S gale to
40 kt. Seas 31 ft. 
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-130730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
416 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming SW 50 kt in the morning, then
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 28 ft subsiding to
20 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...S storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 31 ft. 
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-130730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
416 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
22 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 31 ft. 
.FRI...S gale to 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-130730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
416 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming N in the morning, then becoming W
25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-130730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
416 AM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 14 ft. S swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 29 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft subsiding to 18 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

254 
FZAK52 PAJK 122343
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
243 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-131745-
243 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A weakening low departs the panhandle Tuesday night.  Ridging
builds over the area Wednesday. A storm force low arrives in the
eastern gulf on Thursday.  

$$

PKZ041-131745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
243 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale 40 kt late. Seas 14 ft
building to 18 ft late. 
.THU...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
34 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S storm force wind to 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt.
Seas 33 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 29 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-131745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
243 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt late.
Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
34 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 32 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 28 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-131745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
243 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt late.
Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
32 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 32 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-131745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
243 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers
early in the evening. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas
11 ft. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-131745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
243 PM AKST Tue Jan 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
10 ft. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

861 
FZAK52 PAJK 131307
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140715-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low lies stationary over Bristol Bay today. A ridge persists 
over BC through Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a storm force low 
arrives in the eastern gulf on Thursday. 

$$

PKZ041-140715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt late. Seas 14 ft
building to 20 ft late. 
.THU...SE storm force wind to 60 kt. Seas 31 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 29 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 13 ft
building to 18 ft late. 
.THU...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 29 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 12 ft
building to 16 ft late. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 60 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Snow showers in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
407 AM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 20 ft building to
28 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow in the morning, then rain
in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

764 
FZAK52 PAJK 140048
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-141900-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A ridge persists over BC through Wednesday night. A storm force
low arrives in the eastern gulf on Thursday. A gale force low 
moves into the gulf on Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-141900-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the evening, then 
increasing to 45 kt late. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft late. Rain 
late. 
.THU...SE wind 60 kt. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 28 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft
building to 25 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-141900-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE in the evening, then
increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft late. Rain
late. 
.THU...SE wind 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt becoming S gale to
40 kt late. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft
building to 24 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-141900-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 40 kt late. Seas 12 ft
building to 16 ft late. Rain late. 
.THU...E wind 55 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 50 kt diminishing to
35 kt gale late. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 16 ft building to
24 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-141900-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 55 kt. Seas 20 ft building to 28 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E storm force wind 50 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. 
Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 16 ft building
to 24 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-141900-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
348 PM AKST Wed Jan 13 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to E 30 kt late. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E storm force wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt late. 
Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft. SE swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
309 PM AKST Mon Jan 11 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wed night/ Southerly flow and showers are
the main rule of the day today. some of these showers have been a
little intense as far as rainfall is concerned, but they have been
lacking in lightning. Only one strike near Sitka was detected
overnight and a few just S of Yakutat around 2 pm but that has
been it so far.

The main focus of the short range is the compact and strong low
that will be coming up along the outer coast tonight into
tomorrow. Main concern is how much wind is this thing going to
produce. 925 mb low level jet of around 55 to 62 kt, particularly
on the S side of the low in the Southwesterlies. Gusts of 40 to
50 mph are expected for many areas of the panhandle from Juneau
and Elfin Cove southward tonight into tomorrow. Whether some areas
will get high wind gusts to 60 mph is very uncertain but the
outer coastal areas of Prince of Wales and Baranof islands will be
the most likely places to get it in the SW flow behind the low.
Opted to stay below high wind criteria for now, but still have
gusts approaching 55 mph in the strong SW flow behind the low.
Gales and wide spread small craft winds will also be a common
feature for many gulf and inner channel marine areas as well. The
northern inner channels will likely get in on the act by Tue
afternoon as well as the pressure gradient suddenly flips south in
the wake of the low.

Another period of precipitation is in the works for the panhandle
with this low as well. Most areas will be warm enough for rain
except for possibly the higher elevations of the Klondike. However
with this system moving through rather quickly. Precip amounts are
expected to be rather low.

Behind this low SW onshore flow and showers resumes with a gradual
decreasing trend into Wed night. Atmospheric instability does not
appear to be as strong as it is with the current shower activity
so the showers should not be as intense as todays are.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday night/...The long range
forecast period begins with a large upper low centered over
Bristol Bay, a much weaker upper circulation west of Haida Gwaii,
and a very broad upper trough which encompasses both of these
features. The base of the trough extends from the dateline east to
the west coast of southern British Columbia with the trough axis
extending south to 40N. A very strong 190kt upper jet associated
with this trough will begin to dig south of the Aleutians early in
the period, sharpening up the trough axis and inducing a
negatively tilted upper ridge across the southern Gulf by
Wednesday afternoon. This will produce a new upper low which will
take up a position over the western central Gulf by Friday
morning. As this happens, the upper ridge will continue to build
and then be displaced to the east as a trough axis pivots north
about the new low. The upper low will retrograde northwest and
become absorbed in the upper flow as large scale onshore flow
dominates the eastern Gulf Friday night heading into Saturday. The
extended range forecast will end with another upper low
approaching the central Gulf from the southwest Sunday through
early next week.

At the surface, a southwest flow pattern sets up over the entire
region with a surface low located around Bristol Bay. The next
impactful system moves northward into the gulf on Thursday with a
low heading towards Kodiak Island and an associated gale force
front pushing into the Panhandle. The parade of storm systems
continue through early next week with a series of lows moving
into the gulf, following almost the same track and swinging strong
fronts into the coast.

The sensible weather pattern will continue to be wet, as is
typical for this time of the year, with multiple fronts and waves
bringing plenty of precipitation. The general onshore pattern will
provide for continued warmer (relatively speaking) air such that
the precip type will be predominantly rain for lower elevations
except the far northern inner channels. There, daytime rain will
periodically give way to overnight snow. Only the highways will
remain reliably cold enough for consistent snow.

Overall model agreement is good for the long term regarding the
general weather pattern. However, there are disagreements between
models regarding the finer details of the forecast, which is to
be expected this far out. Used a blend of EC/Canadian for winds
and timing of the front on Thursday, which brings it in 6 hours
faster than the GFS. The exact timing and details of the next
systems moving in for the weekend and early next week will be
worked through in the coming days as models come into better
agreement. Trended towards WPC for the latter part of the long
term, which heavily used the EC and EC ensembles. Despite model
differences, there is high confidence that this wet and warmer
pattern will continue into next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Tuesday morning
     for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday morning for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind Tuesday morning for AKZ024.
     Strong Wind from 3 AM AKST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ022.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind until 3 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ028.
     Strong Wind Tuesday afternoon for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041-042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>036-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-051>053.

&&

EAL/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1213 PM AKST MON JAN 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.69W
01/08/2021  M83 MPH          KETCHIKAN GATEWAY  AK   ASOS

            CORRECTED EVENT TYPE ON PREVIOUS REPORT THAT
            LABELED THE EVENT TYPE AS STORM WIND GUST.
            ROOF WIND OCCASIONAL GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
            WEAKER GUSTS ALSO REPORTED EARLIER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
249 PM AKST MON JAN 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NW SAXMAN             55.34N 131.64W
01/08/2021                   PKZ036             AK   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
259 PM AKST MON JAN 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SITKA                   57.05N 135.34W
01/05/2021                   SITKA              AK   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            POWER POLES BROKEN.

&&

NF