Small Craft Advisory 294, NWS Juneau, AK

913 
FZAK51 PAJK 031227
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-040230-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure over Southeast Alaska will slowly drift
to the east into Canada through Thursday night. A  low will
enter the southern Gulf from the west Thursday and  slowly fill
as it moves into the southeast gulf by Friday  afternoon.  

$$

PKZ011-040230-
Glacier Bay-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the
morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-040230-
Northern Lynn Canal-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming light late. Seas 4 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. Showers.
.FRI...Light winds becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-040230-
Southern Lynn Canal-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming light late. Seas 3 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. Showers.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-040230-
Icy Strait-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
Showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-040230-
Cross Sound-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
Showers.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SE swell. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-040230-
Stephens Passage-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-040230-
Northern Chatham Strait-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-040230-
Southern Chatham Strait-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft,
except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-040230-
Frederick Sound-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-040230-
Sumner Strait-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft,
except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-040230-
Clarence Strait-
427 AM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

191 
FZAK51 PAJK 032353
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-041715-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low pressure system will track east-northeast and into the
southeast Gulf Friday morning. The low will slowly weaken then
move through Dixon Entrance Saturday morning. Outlook. A weak
ridge will build over the eastern Gulf behind the low for
Saturday. 

$$

PKZ011-041715-
Glacier Bay-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less.
Rain showers. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind increasing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or 
less.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-041715-
Northern Lynn Canal-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt late, then shifting N.
Gusts to 35 kt early in the evening near the northern end. Seas 4
ft. Rain showers early in the evening.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light and
variable. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-041715-
Southern Lynn Canal-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft. 
Showers.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-041715-
Icy Strait-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Higher gusts near the eastern end. Seas 
3 ft. Showers.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 
ft or less. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-041715-
Cross Sound-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas building to 
7 ft. Showers.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
7 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-041715-
Stephens Passage-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft then
subsiding.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-041715-
Northern Chatham Strait-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 3 
ft. Showers.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-041715-
Southern Chatham Strait-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Near the ocean
entrance, gusts to 35 kt increasing to 45 kt late. Seas building
to 5 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft building to 9 ft. 
Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt in the morning becoming NE 20 kt. Gusts to 
35 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing late. Seas 3 ft, except
8 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-041715-
Frederick Sound-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Wind gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
Showers.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-041715-
Sumner Strait-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt 
near the ocean entrance. Seas building to 5 ft. Near ocean 
entrances, seas building to 7 ft. Showers.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt
in the morning. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft, except 7 ft near 
ocean entrances. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing late. Seas 3 ft, except
6 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near 
ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-041715-
Clarence Strait-
353 PM AKDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 30 kt late. Seas building to 6 
ft. Near ocean entrances, seas building to 9 ft. Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean 
entrances. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
245 PM AKDT Wed Jun 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...A short-wave/frontal band has been hung over the
Coast Mtns causing rain showers all day in Juneau and a good
portion of the rest of the panhandle with low ceilings. Before
the next short-wave overruns the current one this evening, there
is a break visible on satellite. Thin spots/breaks in the clouds
are seen along the outer coast between Cross Sound and Dixon
Entrance and into the southern inner channels around Ketchikan as
of 2pm. The next short-wave is wrapping around the parent low
currently over the central gulf and looks to be directed at the
northern panhandle. Therefore, the southern panhandle should see
more scattered showers through the evening while the the north
sees some slight easing in the late afternoon followed by a ramp
up in coverage/intensity again in the late evening. The low will
slowly weaken to a trough over the north/central gulf through
Thursday morning, but will keep the showers going for much of the
area, especially the north.

The next well developed low pressure system to follow in the
series of lows that have been affecting the region can be seen on
satellite this afternoon south of the Aleutians. Expect this low
to track E-ENE across the southern gulf through Thursday, then
approach the outside waters near Dixon Entrance on Friday. The
front ahead of the low will cause winds over the southern outside
waters and Clarence Strait to increase to 30kt Thursday night into
Friday. The nearby land areas of Prince of Wales and Ketchikan
will likely see wind gusts of around 40 mph during this period as
well as moderate to heavy rain showers (see hydro section below
for more).

The low track also means the northern panhandle will fall under
more offshore flow and therefore decreasing POP/QPF starting
Thursday night. The Yakutat area will likely even see partly
clouds skies Friday afternoon. For this reason, have continued the
trend of lowering POP and decreased cloud cover slightly. The
offshore flow and sunny breaks should help Friday be several
degrees warmer across the north than Wed/Thurs, and closer to
normal. The south however, will keep well below normal highs.

Models are in good agreement on the low taking the further south
track and remaining at about the Dixon Entrance latitude. What
they disagree on is how quickly it moves east and weakens to an
open trough. The GFS keeps the low in tact the longest over the
outside waters, and eventually east early Sunday morning. The
ECMWF, followed closely by the NAM, is the fastest to open the low
to a trough and push it through Dixon Entrance early in the day
on Saturday. For this forecast package ending Friday night/early
Saturday, we have leaned closer to the GFS due to its good run to
run consistency.

.LONG TERM.../Friday to Wednesday as of 10 pm Tuesday / Friday
starts as the complex multi-center low aloft over the Bering Sea,
western half of the state and the western Gulf of Alaska begins to
unravel from the solid cross model agreement.

The upper low that was in the western gulf weakens as it moves to
west of Prince of Wales Island roughly, while the upper level low
that was near the central Aleutians has weakened and moved into or
through the western Gulf of Alaska. By Sunday an upper level low
seems to be near Haida Gwaii, and in this position the onshore flow
is diverted to an offshore pattern, at least for a few days.
Long range solutions have started drying out or stopping the showers
over the panhandle for Sunday and Monday. Will need to watch this
more, as it sets up, the 20-30% PoPs could be much less. The start
of next week appears that it may be drier so have lowers PoPs a
bit more for Monday over the panhandle.

Overall confidence is average to slightly above average through
the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rainfall continues to be above normal for this time
of year. Most rivers/streams are elevated as a result. Auke Lake
is hovering around bankfull and will continue to be monitored. The
precip rates letting up over the south tonight should help those
basins crest and lower some before the heavy rain moves back in
late Thursday night. Expecting around 0.75-2" for the southern
third of the panhandle Thurs night through Friday night, with the
bulk of that falling in the 12hrs between midnight and noon
Friday. The decrease in rainfall across the north on Friday will
allow those basins to fall, but should start to see some diurnal
change with added snow melt.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-041>043.

&&

Ferrin/Bezenek

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