Small Craft Advisory 271, NWS Juneau, AK

993 
FZAK52 PAJK 142339
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-151745-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure over the Panhandle will shift south and east
Friday night as a front tracks northeast across the Gulf and
Southeast Alaska. A broad but weak ridge will build in from the 
south behind the front late Saturday afternoon and overnight. 

$$

PKZ041-151745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SW late. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-151745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-151745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E and increasing to 25 kt in 
the late evening. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the evening. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-151745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 8
ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-151745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt overnight. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft subsiding to 7 ft late morning.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

154 
FZAK52 PAJK 151141
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-160545-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A broad but weak ridge will build in from the south late Saturday
afternoon and overnight. 

$$

PKZ041-160545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-160545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-160545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-160545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-160545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain early in
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

996 
FZAK52 PAJK 152343
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-161745-
343 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A broad but weak ridge will build in from the south late Saturday
afternoon and overnight. A low will enter the south-central Gulf 
from the west on Sunday night. 

$$

PKZ041-161745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
343 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-161745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
343 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-161745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
343 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-161745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
343 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-161745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
343 PM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
249 PM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/...A surface low continues to
linger in the north central Gulf area but will dissipate through
the evening hours. Another low will form in it's place by Friday
afternoon, resulting in a plume of organized moisture being pushed
into the panhandle.

Once again, minor changes were made to the forecast as the showery
period continues. Gale force winds from the barrier jet along
Yakutat's coast will calm down late tonight as the low diminishes.
Much of the inner channels will see wind speeds up to 20 kt until
Saturday's system exits. Total weekend rainfall amounts will
remain under 2 inches, with highest numbers in the central
panhandle near Juneau. Wave heights were decreased as the storm
exits. Temperatures will continue to stay below to near normal
into the weekend.

Overall, models are in good agreement with the timing of the
moisture plume starting on Friday afternoon, but there is still
uncertainty on location. Some models shift the higher rainfall
amounts southward towards Ketchikan.

LONG TERM.../Saturday to Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/...Saturday
starts with the southwest 500 mb flow across the panhandle being
forced south of the panhandle and into the British Columbia coast
by Sunday morning. This happens because the strong closed low
crossing over the Eastern Aleutians into the Far Western Gulf
while weakening. It still becomes a dominate feature in the gulf
forcing the upper level ridge axis east into Canada. This upper
level low is expected to slowly move East-Southeast through
Wednesday to be over the far Southeast Gulf or near Vancouver
Island. Model agreement after Tuesday is not the best with some
more significant differences across the operational solutions and
the national blend seems to have included all and leads to a
washed out look. Thus the poorer confidence.

For the surface and weather for the panhandle, rain from a
trough/front moving through Saturday with accumulations between
1/3 and 2/3 inches possible for average amounts. This will lead
to some minor stream reactions however should not become flooding
hazards.

Winds for the most part topping out at small craft levels at the
worst with current forecast thinking. Some individual solutions
if they occur as shown might push some the winds to Gale force for
the Southeast Gulf but that is low probability occurrence right
now.

Ensemble means and anomaly tables do not show anything too far
out of normal for the time being. This is a small indications on
the anomalies of the rains for Saturday. Not expecting large
shifts away from the present temperature profile over SEAK. An
increase of the PoPs Saturday to be in line with incoming front
and this resulted in needing to adjust some Saturday high
temperatures down a few degrees.

Forecast confidence in the long range is below average to average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043.

&&

KRT/Bezenek

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