Small Craft Advisory 270, NWS Juneau, AK

411 
FZAK51 PAJK 142339
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-151700-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
High pressure over the Panhandle will shift south and east
Friday night as a front tracks northeast across the Gulf and
Southeast Alaska. A broad but weak ridge will build in from the 
south behind the front late Saturday afternoon and overnight. 

$$

PKZ011-151700-
Glacier Bay-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-151700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming light late. Seas 4 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. Rain.
.SAT...S wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft. 
Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-151700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-151700-
Icy Strait-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or less. Showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...W wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-151700-
Cross Sound-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late evening. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-151700-
Stephens Passage-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers in the evening.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-151700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt except 20 kt N of Freshwater Bay in the
morning. Wind diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft in
the morning then 2 ft or less.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-151700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming light overnight. Seas 3 ft in 
the evening then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-151700-
Frederick Sound-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW late. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind diminishing to 10 kt overnight. Seas 3 ft in 
the evening then 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-151700-
Sumner Strait-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming W late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-151700-
Clarence Strait-
339 PM AKDT Fri May 14 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind diminishing to 10 kt in the morning. Seas subsiding
to 2 ft in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW late. Seas 2 ft or
less. Showers late. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

854 
FZAK51 PAJK 151142
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-160230-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A broad but weak ridge will build in from the south late Saturday
afternoon and overnight. 

$$

PKZ011-160230-
Glacier Bay-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-160230-
Northern Lynn Canal-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-160230-
Southern Lynn Canal-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-160230-
Icy Strait-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft
or less. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-160230-
Cross Sound-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-160230-
Stephens Passage-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming S. Gusts to 35 kt early in the
morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-160230-
Northern Chatham Strait-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft 
or less. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-160230-
Southern Chatham Strait-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-160230-
Frederick Sound-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt early diminishing in the afternoon. Out of
interior passes, gusts to 35 kt early in the morning. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain early in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-160230-
Sumner Strait-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SW in the morning, then becoming
SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming W late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-160230-
Clarence Strait-
342 AM AKDT Sat May 15 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt in the morning diminishing to 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft subsiding in the afternoon. Rain early in 
the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt late. Seas building to
3 ft late. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
249 PM AKDT Thu May 13 2021

SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/...A surface low continues to
linger in the north central Gulf area but will dissipate through
the evening hours. Another low will form in it's place by Friday
afternoon, resulting in a plume of organized moisture being pushed
into the panhandle.

Once again, minor changes were made to the forecast as the showery
period continues. Gale force winds from the barrier jet along
Yakutat's coast will calm down late tonight as the low diminishes.
Much of the inner channels will see wind speeds up to 20 kt until
Saturday's system exits. Total weekend rainfall amounts will
remain under 2 inches, with highest numbers in the central
panhandle near Juneau. Wave heights were decreased as the storm
exits. Temperatures will continue to stay below to near normal
into the weekend.

Overall, models are in good agreement with the timing of the
moisture plume starting on Friday afternoon, but there is still
uncertainty on location. Some models shift the higher rainfall
amounts southward towards Ketchikan.

LONG TERM.../Saturday to Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/...Saturday
starts with the southwest 500 mb flow across the panhandle being
forced south of the panhandle and into the British Columbia coast
by Sunday morning. This happens because the strong closed low
crossing over the Eastern Aleutians into the Far Western Gulf
while weakening. It still becomes a dominate feature in the gulf
forcing the upper level ridge axis east into Canada. This upper
level low is expected to slowly move East-Southeast through
Wednesday to be over the far Southeast Gulf or near Vancouver
Island. Model agreement after Tuesday is not the best with some
more significant differences across the operational solutions and
the national blend seems to have included all and leads to a
washed out look. Thus the poorer confidence.

For the surface and weather for the panhandle, rain from a
trough/front moving through Saturday with accumulations between
1/3 and 2/3 inches possible for average amounts. This will lead
to some minor stream reactions however should not become flooding
hazards.

Winds for the most part topping out at small craft levels at the
worst with current forecast thinking. Some individual solutions
if they occur as shown might push some the winds to Gale force for
the Southeast Gulf but that is low probability occurrence right
now.

Ensemble means and anomaly tables do not show anything too far
out of normal for the time being. This is a small indications on
the anomalies of the rains for Saturday. Not expecting large
shifts away from the present temperature profile over SEAK. An
increase of the PoPs Saturday to be in line with incoming front
and this resulted in needing to adjust some Saturday high
temperatures down a few degrees.

Forecast confidence in the long range is below average to average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043.

&&

KRT/Bezenek

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