Small Craft Advisory 261, NWS Juneau, AK

811 
FZAK52 PAJK 071224
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-080630-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure system over the Eastern Gulf will weaken through
Friday. As the low weakens, winds and seas will decrease. Then a
front will move north through the area Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-080630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 6 ft.
Showers late. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-080630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain showers in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-080630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-080630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-080630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
424 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the 
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
235 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday/ The unsettled weather
pattern continues in the short term. A low pressures system is
moving into the eastern gulf and will continue to move north
through tonight. This low will weaken throughout the day Friday
and is expected to fade out completely by Friday night. Then on
Saturday, a front will move northward, bringing with it more rain
and wind.

The on-and-off rain activity looks to stay on the lighter side
with most areas getting up to a half inch of rain tonight through
Saturday but there will be isolated spots getting a little more.
Agreement among QPF ensemble averages supports this.

The winds should weaken tonight for the central and northern
Panhandle as the pressure gradient lightens up. The southern
areas, near Prince of Wales Island, won’t see the winds really
lighten up until Friday due to the center of the low still
lingering just off shore. But as the low weakens entirely, the
winds should decrease through Friday. Then as the next front
approaches on Saturday, coastal winds should pick up but the
winds inside the Panhandle aren’t expected to pick up too much.

Short term low temperatures should stay above freezing with high
temps a little cooler, reaching the 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...Sat through Thu as of 10 PM Wed...Little change in
the forecast reasoning through the extended. Model guidance still
supports an upper low over the Bering Sea persisting into early
next week before weakening, then restrengthening mid to late next
week. This will maintain an active pattern across SE AK through
the extended forecast, but details are difficult to identify as
model solutions diverge in timing and strength of perturbations
ejecting out the parent low and across the gulf. Current
operational runs and ensembles coming into better agreement with a
front moving into the panhandle Sat and again Mon, but differ
slightly in the timing and amount of precip with these systems.
Forecast confidence in active pattern is above average, but drops
in regards to any details into early next week. Confidence falls
to low by mid next week with significant spread in operational
and ensemble guidance.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ027-028.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-036-041>043-051.

&&

GJS/BC

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