Small Craft Advisory 259, NWS Juneau, AK

522 
FZAK51 PAJK 061825 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-070215-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low pressure system will move into the Eastern Gulf Thursday.
High pressure over Canada in conjunction with the low in the
Gulf will cause increasing winds over the northern inner 
channels on Thursday and the southern inner channels through
Friday. 

$$

PKZ011-070215-
Glacier Bay-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers late. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-070215-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the morning, then
diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 5 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
subsiding to 2 ft or less overnight. Rain showers late. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-070215-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the morning, then
becoming 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
subsiding to 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-070215-
Icy Strait-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.FRI...Light winds becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-070215-
Cross Sound-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-070215-
Stephens Passage-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-070215-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-070215-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft,
except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Near ocean entrances, seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-070215-
Frederick Sound-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-070215-
Sumner Strait-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 8 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-070215-
Clarence Strait-
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

215 
FZAK51 PAJK 062335
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-071700-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low pressure system will move into the Eastern Gulf tonight
and weaken through Friday. As the low weakens, winds and seas
will decrease. Then a front will move north through the area
Saturday. 

$$

PKZ011-071700-
Glacier Bay-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers
late. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-071700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 late. Seas 4 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-071700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 late. Seas 4 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.SUN...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-071700-
Icy Strait-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft early in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. Showers late. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers in the
morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers
late. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-071700-
Cross Sound-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers late. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers late. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-071700-
Stephens Passage-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft early in the
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-071700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft in
the morning then 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-071700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 9
ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-071700-
Frederick Sound-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers in the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-071700-
Sumner Strait-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the evening.
Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 5 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-071700-
Clarence Strait-
335 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers late. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft late. Near
ocean entrances, seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
247 PM AKDT Wed May 5 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday/The short term forecast
will be mainly focused on the incoming surface low pressure. This
system will travel north tonight and will arrive along the
southern border of the Juneau WFO’s forecast area late Thursday
morning. It will continue to travel northward through the eastern
Gulf until it fades out late Friday.

As this low tracks northward, it will bring the Panhandle some
moisture as the associated front pushes through. But the amount of
rain is expected to be on the lighter side. Total QPF Ensemble
averages between tonight and Friday night range from a tenth of an
inch to half an inch for most, with isolated spots getting a
little more. But even those isolated spots are less than three-
quarters of an inch.

The winds should pick up tomorrow as well. Strong wind headlines
will be in effect for parts of the southern Panhandle Thursday
afternoon with the possibility of them lasting into Thursday
night. These are for wind gusts upwards of 40 mph. There will also
be some Small Crafts in effect along the coast, Lynn Canal, and
Clarence Strait.

Another area of interest will be the Juneau downtown area. There
are hints of some mountain wave activity but so far, the evidence
is pretty marginal. So we’ve kept the forecasted winds below
thresholds for any headlines but wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph are
possible.

Forecasted low temperatures are above frost levels with highs in
the 50s for Thursday, upper 40s to low 50s for Friday.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday as of 10 PM Tuesday/ Model
guidance still supports an upper low over the Bering Sea
remaining through the weekend and into next week. This feature
will bring multiple shortwaves into the Gulf and over the
panhandle. During patterns like this, models struggle to resolve
the shortwave features making for a low confidence long term
forecast. Areas of change were kept to where guidance has been
the most consistent the past few days. With multiple features
possibly impacting the panhandle, there are a few that provide
high enough confidence to include in the long term forecast.

Beginning Friday, a negatively tilted trough extends down over
the panhandle with a co-located surface low in the SE Gulf. The
surface low will be in the process of weakening as it shifts to
the N along the SE gulf coast. Models vary on the strength of the
low but all agree that a band of rain will push from S to N over
the panhandle. With the track of the low, offshore flow will be
favorable across the northern and central panhandle so precip will
be delayed through these areas until the low tracks further north
and flow becomes more southerly. By Friday evening the surface
low will become cut off and dissolve making way for showers.

By Saturday a new wave ejects from the mean low over the Bering
Sea which develops into a new low in the Gulf with an associated
front. Exact timing of frontal passage still varies between
models (GFS/EC fastest progression) but in general arrives during
the day Saturday. For Sunday, an area of high pressure builds
through the Pacific allowing for a ridge to build into the
southern Gulf. This feature will act to cut off the surface low
and provide a brief drying period late Sunday to Monday morning.

But wait, there's more. Yet another cyclone develops Sunday S of
the Aleutians, this one looking more organized and stronger than
previous lows. This system looks to bring an organized band of
rain into the panhandle Monday evening through Tuesday before
weakening and merging with the parent low to the W. At this point
models begin to diverge significantly as Wednesday approaches.
Overall, an active weather pattern is expected over the long term.
Periods of organized bands of rain followed by showers can be
expected. Temperatures throughout the long term are expected to
be near normal to slightly below normal ranging in the upper 40s
to low 50s.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
     AKZ027.
     Strong Wind Thursday afternoon for AKZ028.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-036-041>043.

&&

GJS/CC

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