Small Craft Advisory 181, NWS Juneau, AK

093 
FZAK53 PAJK 241135
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 AM AKDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-250545-
Yakutat Bay-
335 AM AKDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt early in the morning becoming light. Seas
9 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
7 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

938 
FZAK53 PAJK 242307
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 PM AKDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-251715-
Yakutat Bay-
307 PM AKDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
7 ft. Rain and snow showers in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light.
Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming SW 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...Light winds. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

175 
FZAK53 PAJK 251236
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
436 AM AKDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-260645-
Yakutat Bay-
436 AM AKDT Thu Mar 25 2021

.TODAY...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. SW swell early in the morning. 
Rain showers and snow showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas
7 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.FRI...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers in the morning.
Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
246 PM AKDT Tue Mar 23 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/...The forecast for the
short term takes a quieter turn as we head into Wednesday but
ramps right back up on Thursday.

Tonight...a weak low in the gulf will move eastward, taking the
precip chances with it. So we should see the rain and snow come
to an end from north to south tonight. That being said, we still
expect some light precip with light (less than an inch) snowfall
accumulation overnight. Skies should remain mostly cloudy to
cloudy.

As the low moves eastward and the panhandle transitions to the
backside of the low, the wind should shift to a more northerly
direction, which should also make temps a touch cooler than last
night. Lows will dip into the teens and 20s in the north, upper
20s to 30s in the central regions, and mid to upper 30s in the
south.

With the winds going to a generally north direction, some spots
could end up with some stronger winds. Right now, we are thinking
the coastal waters and northern Lynn Canal could have wind speeds
around 25 knots so Small Craft Advisories will be in effect
tonight for those locations.

Wednesday isn’t looking too bad....High pressure begins to build
over the panhandle tomorrow and tomorrow night. This will continue
to decrease the chances for precip and decrease cloud cover from
the north to south so tomorrow night is looking mostly clear for
the panhandle.

Highs tomorrow shouldn’t be much different than today, 30s in the
north and lower 40s in the south. The clearer skies late in the
day also mean colder temps tomorrow night, with lows dipping into
the 20s to lower 30s for the entire panhandle.

The wind looks to lighten up in the inner channels tomorrow but
the coastal waters could still see some lingering 20-25 knot winds
so we’ll hold on to small craft advisories for those areas.

Thursday brings the next weather maker...Another front looks to
move in from the west, bringing the next chance for rain and snow
to the panhandle. While the forecast still needs some work, this
front could bring another quarter inch to half inch of moisture
Thursday through Thursday night and some of that could fall as
snow, especially in the north.

Because of the incoming front, highs on Thursday look to reach
the mid to upper 30s for most of the panhandle with Thursday night
lows only dipping into the low to mid 30s. So not a lot of change
between the day and night times.

Winds should pick up as the front approaches as well so if you
plan on getting out on the water, be sure to stay tuned into the
forecast as the wind forecast will be adjusted and fine-tuned over
the coming days.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday as of 10PM/...The weather for
Thursday looks to be more showery for the Panhandle, due to the
continued onshore flow from a ridge over the Gulf and orographic
uplift before the ridge axis tilts eastward. Then, a series of
systems that look to supply southeast Alaska with ample
precipitation approach the area for Friday afternoon through the
end of the period.

According to model guidance, these systems look to bring
with them some appreciable warm air advection, keeping
temperatures moderated, overall. On average, 1000 to 850 mb
thickness values look be 1300 or greater over most of the
Panhandle for the timeframe of the heaviest precipitation for
Friday afternoon through Saturday night. The exception is the
extreme northern Panhandle near the Canadian border, which keeps
temperatures and thicknesses just within favorable values for some
wintry precipitation accumulation, which is typical. Integrated
Water Vapor Transport(IVT) values around 500 kg/(ms) look to be
approaching the Panhandle with the frontal system approaching the
area around that timeframe as a long fetch of deep central Pacific
moisture looks to be aimed toward the Panhandle. This presents
the possibility of a miniature atmospheric river event as
temperatures should be warm enough for the precipitation to be
rain for the vast majority of the Panhandle and the storm system
looks to have ample moisture supply to work with.

As for the winds, some small crafts were put into the forecast
for the Lynn Canal area for Friday through Saturday and Clarence
Strait for Saturday evening for the tightening pressure gradient
that the aforementioned storm systems look to bring over the
inner channels.

As for the models, the Canadian drastically diverged from model
consensus as we entered the long term forecast period. So, we did
not use that, today. The blend that we went with was a
GFS/ECMWF/NAM blend as we felt the agreement was very reasonable.
For Sunday, onward, we phased into WPC as the models that we had
access to began to diverge, which got worse over time, and our
confidence in any blend of their output was significantly
decreased.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-036-041>043-051>053.

&&

GJS/JLC

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