Small Craft Advisory 161, NWS Juneau, AK

483 
FZAK53 PAJK 171221
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
421 AM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-180630-
Yakutat Bay-
421 AM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft. S swell. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain showers, then 
snow showers. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. Snow and rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. Snow showers.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

650 
FZAK53 PAJK 172334
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-181745-
Yakutat Bay-
334 PM AKDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Rain 
and snow showers.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. Snow showers in
the morning, then snow showers and rain showers in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Snow showers
in the evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

430 
FZAK53 PAJK 181149
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-190600-
Yakutat Bay-
349 AM AKDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. S
swell. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 7 ft. S 
swell. Snow showers. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming E 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather
Service Juneau AK 310 PM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...Upper long wave trough at 500 mb in place from AK
interior, south to eastern Pacific. A cut off low lifting north
Tuesday/Wednesday over Eastern Gulf will be supporting the incoming
wave and gusty winds. At the base of the upper level trough, a low
closes off and lifts NE toward Vancouver Island from Wednesday to
Thursday. The long wave trough starts moving NE slowly to the
panhandle by Friday. Weak ridge west of the gulf and a zonal pattern
across the N. Pacific south of Aleutians moves east to the gulf by
late Friday.

A mid 970 mb low moves northward just east of 140 West tonight and
Wednesday, approaching Cape Fairweather Wednesday afternoon. The
associated frontal precipitation band and wind will be moving north
through tonight. A small warm frontal feature will lead the way by
about 6 hours it spreading rain to southern panhandle late this
afternoon. Gusts near the front reaching up to 40 mph for a Sitka
and Juneau zone, and eventually the Skagway zone by Wednesday
afternoon. For much of the panhandle the P-type will be rain or a
mix, although a little cooler air for the northern Lynn Canal will
support snow near sea level especially for Haines as it hangs on to
low level NW flow refreshing cooler temperature.

Lynn Canal area looks as if 3 to 5 inches will likely fall tonight
so will maintain the Advisory for snow amounts. Does look as if will
try to shift to rain in the morning for Wednesday.

Did work on temperature for the next 12 to 48 hrs as initial
temperature is not looking to be a diurnal with steady or warming
for portions of the central and northern panhandle tonight.

Behind that front is a weak surface low moving into the NE gulf
coast area late Thursday, and an old moisture band will be pushed
northward into the southern panhandle by late Thursday. This may try
to react as a warm frontal feature.

The most exciting weather looks to be tonight and early Wednesday
and calm down headed into Thursday. Confidence is above average for
tonight into Wednesday and a little lower for Thursday.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday/ More
amplified weather pattern for AK for the long range, but as of
now no significant hazards anticipated. Upper level trough over
the AK Gulf mid week will shift to the east through the weekend,
possibly with a ridge moving in, followed by another low/trough.
At the surface, remnants of the low that tracked into the NE Gulf
will weaken then reform near Prince William Sound, and then begin
to move to southward along the panhandle coast towards Cross Sound
through Friday. A second low will move near Haida Gwaii around
the same time as the NE Gulf low reforms but should remain mainly
south of the panhandle. Beyond that time frame about the best
that can accurately be said is more lows will move in from the
west.

The Thursday NE Gulf low has a typical pattern with small craft
winds and precip bands pushing over the northern panhandle.
Meanwhile the Haida Gwaii low moves in precip to the southern
panhandle creating a narrow break over the central panhandle.
Starting to see the early spring diurnal temperature pattern with
highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows near freezing, so have
mixed precip through out the long range, with more rain to the
south. 850 mb temps really show the boundary between arctic air
from the Yukon steered by the NE low moving in with a warm air
over S British Columbia influenced by the Haida Gwaii low. As of
now 12 hour snow totals of only a few inches expected. By the
weekend see a much larger spread in both operational models and
ensembles. GFS indicating a deep low with potential for heavy
precip along with strong winds. However this is the outlier
solution.

Used a blend for GFS/ECMWF for Thursday with fair agreement and
ensemble alignment. For the rest of the long range, a nudge to
new WPC was used. Low forecast confidence for long range beyond
Thursday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Wednesday afternoon for AKZ018-025.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     AKZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT
     Wednesday for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ042.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-032-033-036-041-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031-034-035-052-053.

&&

Bezenek/PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1133 AM AKDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 SSW MENDENHALL VALLEY 58.37N 134.60W
03/15/2021  M6.0 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT, THE SPOTTER
            MEASURED AN ADDITIONAL INCH FOR A TOTAL OF 6
            INCHES. SNOW STARTED AT 1AM.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1149 AM AKDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY SNOW       7 SSE HAINES            59.14N 135.37W
03/16/2021  M20.0 INCH       HAINES             AK   PUBLIC

            9 ADDITIONAL INCHES WERE MEASURED SINCE
            MEASURING 11 INCHES AT 5PM MON(3/15) FOR A
            GRAND TOTAL OF 20 INCHES FOR THE EVENT THAT
            STARTED AT 3AM MON. THIS LOCATION IS AT 400
            FT ELEVATION ON CHILKAT STATE PARK RD. IN
            MUD BAY.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1154 AM AKDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             5 NNW SKAGWAY           59.52N 135.35W
03/16/2021  M4.4 INCH        SKAGWAY            AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT, THE SPOTTER
            REPORTED 4.4 INCHES OF TOTAL NEW SNOW SINCE
            THE EVENT BEGAN AT 3AM MON(3/15).

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1204 PM AKDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     HEAVY SNOW       5 SSE HAINES            59.17N 135.39W
03/16/2021  M17.0 INCH       HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE SPOTTER MEASURED THE TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR
            THE EVENT THAT STARTED AT 3AM MONDAY(3/15).

&&

BMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
156 PM AKDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HEAVY SNOW       7 SSE HAINES            59.15N 135.35W
03/16/2021  M20.0 INCH       HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE SPOTTER REPORTED 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES
            SINCE 11:30PM(MON), GIVING A SNOW TOTAL OF
            20 INCHES FOR THE EVENT THAT STARTED AT
            AROUND 3AM(MON).

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
236 PM AKDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     HEAVY SNOW       5 SSE HAINES            59.17N 135.39W
03/16/2021  M17.0 INCH       HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY EVENT.

&&