Small Craft Advisory 157, NWS Juneau, AK

451 
FZAK52 PAJK 152346
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 PM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-161800-
346 PM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low will move north through the gulf tonight and
will move inland south of Cross Sound Tuesday morning. A 
developing storm force low enters the eastern gulf from the south 
Tuesday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ041-161800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
346 PM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 20 kt late. Seas 9 ft building
to 17 ft. Rain early in the evening.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain in
the evening. 
.WED...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to
12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-161800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
346 PM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 30 kt, then shifting W 20 
kt late. Seas 16 ft. Rain in the evening.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt becoming S storm force wind to
50 kt late. Gusts to 65 kt late. Seas 22 ft. Rain in the evening.
.WED...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to
11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-161800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
346 PM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NW and increasing to 25 kt in 
the evening. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 21 ft
late. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow late. 
.WED...W gale to 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building
to 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-161800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
346 PM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt late. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft late. 
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-161800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
346 PM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt late. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft. SW swell.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
SW swell. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft. 

$$

903 
FZAK52 PAJK 161158
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 AM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-170600-
358 AM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A developing storm force low enters the eastern gulf from the
south late Tuesday, then tracks north through the eastern gulf 
through Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ041-170600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
358 AM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE in the morning, then
increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...S gale to 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
21 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. W
swell.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-170600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
358 AM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE and increasing to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 50 kt late. Seas 18 ft
building to 25 ft late. Rain in the evening. 
.WED...S Storm to 50 kt in the morning, becoming SW gale to 35 kt.
Seas 25 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-170600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
358 AM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt diminishing in the morning, then becoming E
15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt in the evening, then 
becoming SE 45 kt late. Seas 15 ft building to 22 ft late. Rain.
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Gusts
to 60 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain and snow showers in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-170600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
358 AM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain late. 
.WED...E gale to 40 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20
ft. Rain and snow showers in the morning, then rain showers in 
the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-170600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
358 AM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft. SW swell.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft. SW 
swell. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
302 PM AKDT Sun Mar 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...Initial portion of the forecast is taken up by the
incoming weather system from the Gulf of Alaska and through SE AK.
Temperatures across the panhandle are on the cooler side after
the passing of the last weather system, and sufficient cooler air
will be present to start much of the precip for SEAK as snow. The
organization of the front and anticipated moisture has lead to
multiple Winter Storm Warnings over the northern half of the
panhandle and several Advisories for snowfall amounts. The heavier
snow will be starting before midnight in the Yakutat region and
spreading east, it should reach the Juneau, Haines, and Skagway
areas by sunrise. Accumulations will vary by region of the
panhandle, so please see the appropriate warning product regarding
the expected amounts. The far southern panhandle will start as
snow tonight with minor snowfall amounts, not that portions of the
southern panhandle are looking for more snow after yesterday. The
snow should start mixing with or changing to rain during Monday.

Surface winds are expected to reach 35 kt ( or slightly higher )
gales for the outer coastal waters, and small crafts to gales for
most inner channels are in the forecast.

The following system rolling northward into the eastern gulf is
still having issues with a good solid agreement. Have continued
with a GFS/NAM timing on the feature, with a touch more GFS
influence for the low rolling up. This will bring in a slight warm
up for the southern panhandle spreading a mix precipitation type
into the although the northern panhandle will likely be staying
snow with the precipitation. So expect this section of the
forecast to be changing over the next couple of issuance's. A
second following low is not adding to the confidence factor headed
into midweek.

For a touch of good news, the equinox is around the corner (20th) so
that will mean more daylight than nighttime for SE AK so spring
is almost here. Confidence is fairly good through Monday, and a
lot less so late Monday through to Tuesday.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday night/...This extended range
forecast period begins with a very large upper level trough that
extends from the central interior south across the central Gulf
and past 50N. A 150 kt upper jet will aide in digging the trough
farther south and then, by Wednesday afternoon, cutting off an
upper low. Model solutions differ on how far south the upper low
will form, but all are very slow to move this trough/low off to
the east. By Friday, the upper low will have reverted to an open
wave once again and exhibit a strong negative tilt over the
Panhandle. The entire feature will be displaced to the east during
the weekend by a slightly more zonal jet pattern.

At the surface, a storm force low will develop with the aide of
the strong digging jet Tuesday night south of the Gulf. Models
are in better than average agreement on the strength of this low,
but differ significantly on the timing and track. All are tracking
it north over the eastern Gulf but vary in how close they track it
to the outer coast. Worst case scenarios will involve high winds
for at least the southern half of the Panhandle Tuesday night and
the central Panhandle on Wednesday.

There will be very modest low level warm air advection associated
with this storm. Current overnight lows Tuesday night are still
supporting snow over the northern Panhandle, but rain over the
southern Panhandle when winds will be the strongest. However, if
the low takes a more easterly track, easterly winds around the
northern periphery of the storm could result in snow vice rain
over the southern half as well.

Blended ECMWF and GFS for updates to pressure and wind through
Wednesday afternoon. PoP and QPF from GFS and SREF with some help
from ECMWF through Wednesday night. Overall confidence is average,
but below average on details of track and resultant wind speeds
over land.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ024-
     026.
     Strong Wind Monday morning for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Monday morning for AKZ024.
     Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ024.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ025.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ020-
     022.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM AKDT Monday for
     AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Monday morning for AKZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ021.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ018-
     019.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Monday
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ035-036-042-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>034-041-053.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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