Small Craft Advisory 155, NWS Juneau, AK

949 
FZAK53 PAJK 150012
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
412 PM AKDT Sun Mar 14 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-151815-
Yakutat Bay-
412 PM AKDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas building
to 7 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft. S swell in the afternoon. Snow in the morning, then rain and 
snow in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...Light winds becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 7 ft. S
swell. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

546 
FZAK53 PAJK 151210
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
410 AM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-160615-
Yakutat Bay-
410 AM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding. SW 
swell in the afternoon. Snow early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 7 ft. SW
swell. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
7 ft. SW swell. Snow in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

664 
FZAK53 PAJK 152355
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 PM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-161800-
Yakutat Bay-
355 PM AKDT Mon Mar 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 8 ft subsiding
to 6 ft late. SW swell. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas 6 ft.
SW swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Snow with
rain. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

587 
FZAK53 PAJK 161141
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 AM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-170545-
Yakutat Bay-
341 AM AKDT Tue Mar 16 2021

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell in the morning. Rain 
showers. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Snow
showers and rain showers. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday/...A strong short wave moving north
along a front that was stalled over the southern panhandle dumped
quite a bit of snow on the southern panhandle last night and
today. The stalled front is very slowly progressing eastward out
of the area and spotter reports indicate that over 20 inches of
snow fell in the Ketchikan area. Precipitation will diminish as
this system is expected to finally exit stage right this evening
as the next system enters stage left.

During the southern panhandle snow event, the northern panhandle
dealt with cold northerly outflow conditions. Winds have subsided
considerably from the gales that experienced in Lynn Canal this
morning and are now hovering around 25 kt in the inner channels.
Winds in downtown Juneau also subsided considerably, and the
forecast was adjusted accordingly.

After a very short break during the day on Sunday, Sunday night
brings in the next storm that will affect the area. A surface low
is expected to form off Kodiak Island and meander to the Prince
William Sound area. There is good agreement amongst the models
with regards to the timing and track of this low. The front
accompanying this low will bring gale force wind along the front
in the gulf and precip will start to spread along the gulf coast
down to Cape Decision by Sunday night. Conditions will still be
rather cold in many areas so the precipitation is expected to
start out as snow, even for Sitka. 1000-850mb thicknesses also support
precipitation staying snow for a good portion of the duration of
the storm. Hence, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for most of
the northern and central panhandle. Snow amounts will likely be
in the 5-13 inch range, with refinements expected as more details
on the storm are processed.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/ As of 10pm Friday. A low just
over the Prince William Sound area and its associated front will
be the main weather maker for the start of next week. The front
will already be over the Yakutat area early Monday morning and
looks to quickly spread over the northern and central areas
through the morning, then reach the southern inner channels in the
afternoon. With cold air already in place, there is potential for
several inches of snow, especially for Yakutat, until the winds
shift S-SW in the afternoon and likely cause mixing or change over
to rain. Even outside of Yakutat, the snow could affect the
Monday morning commute for a good portion of the region, so be
prepared to give yourself some extra time that day. However, the
main part of the front moving through during the daytime should
limit accumulations (lowering snow ratios) and cause a change over
to rain for the south and a mix most other places. The quick
moving front pushes through fairly early Monday evening, with some
breaks or a transition to showers. However, some models are
showing a wave or a new low tracking up along the front and making
a new triple point, this would effectively prolong the rain
through Monday night.

The next low pressure system looks to track northward into the
Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday. Models have large differences on the
track and timing of this low (even at the upper levels), from the
eastern side of the gulf (Canadian) to the western gulf (GFS).
There is slightly better agreement that the warm front would
track from south to north over the panhandle sometime Tuesday,
causing greater chances of liquid precip or limited snow
accumulations due to warmer temps. This system will still be in
the gulf on Wednesday, but whether the front will be just offshore
or directly over top of us is still in question. For this reason,
have limited POP to 10-70% for Tuesday onward. We also give a
word of caution to mariners that the wind directions may need to
be adjusted as we pin down different low/front tracks, but did
make a point to increase winds on the inside waters to account for
the fronts.

By the end of next week, models start coming into better agreement
on a low becoming somewhat stationary just south of our offshore
area. This position usually translates to offshore flow and lower
precip potential for the north. Am also seeing downslope warming
show up in the 850mb temps on Thursday. This could be an
inversion...or potential for a very warm spring day, so kept
Thurs/Fri as the warmest days of the week in the forecast.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
     for AKZ018-019-025.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning
     for AKZ017-022-023.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     for AKZ020-021.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ029.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031>034-041>043-051-052.

&&

BFL/Ferrin

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