Small Craft Advisory 152, NWS Juneau, AK

524 
FZAK52 PAJK 141222
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 14 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-150630-
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 14 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Offshore flow and northerly winds diminish today for the northern
panhandle. A surface low develops near Kodiak Island today and 
moves towards Prince William Sound by Monday. The associated 
offshore gale force front approaches the northern and central gulf
coast tonight and moves inland across the panhandle on Monday. 

$$

PKZ041-150630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 7 ft. Rain
late. 
.MON...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-150630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 8 ft. Rain
with snow late. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...E gale to 35 kt becoming S. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-150630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 6 ft
building to 10 ft late. Rain and snow late. 
.MON...SW gale to 40 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft
building to 16 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-150630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 
ft late. Rain in the evening. Snow. Rain late. 
.MON...SE gale to 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-150630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
422 AM AKDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft late. Snow
and rain. 
.MON...SW gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday/...A strong short wave moving north
along a front that was stalled over the southern panhandle dumped
quite a bit of snow on the southern panhandle last night and
today. The stalled front is very slowly progressing eastward out
of the area and spotter reports indicate that over 20 inches of
snow fell in the Ketchikan area. Precipitation will diminish as
this system is expected to finally exit stage right this evening
as the next system enters stage left.

During the southern panhandle snow event, the northern panhandle
dealt with cold northerly outflow conditions. Winds have subsided
considerably from the gales that experienced in Lynn Canal this
morning and are now hovering around 25 kt in the inner channels.
Winds in downtown Juneau also subsided considerably, and the
forecast was adjusted accordingly.

After a very short break during the day on Sunday, Sunday night
brings in the next storm that will affect the area. A surface low
is expected to form off Kodiak Island and meander to the Prince
William Sound area. There is good agreement amongst the models
with regards to the timing and track of this low. The front
accompanying this low will bring gale force wind along the front
in the gulf and precip will start to spread along the gulf coast
down to Cape Decision by Sunday night. Conditions will still be
rather cold in many areas so the precipitation is expected to
start out as snow, even for Sitka. 1000-850mb thicknesses also support
precipitation staying snow for a good portion of the duration of
the storm. Hence, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for most of
the northern and central panhandle. Snow amounts will likely be
in the 5-13 inch range, with refinements expected as more details
on the storm are processed.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/ As of 10pm Friday. A low just
over the Prince William Sound area and its associated front will
be the main weather maker for the start of next week. The front
will already be over the Yakutat area early Monday morning and
looks to quickly spread over the northern and central areas
through the morning, then reach the southern inner channels in the
afternoon. With cold air already in place, there is potential for
several inches of snow, especially for Yakutat, until the winds
shift S-SW in the afternoon and likely cause mixing or change over
to rain. Even outside of Yakutat, the snow could affect the
Monday morning commute for a good portion of the region, so be
prepared to give yourself some extra time that day. However, the
main part of the front moving through during the daytime should
limit accumulations (lowering snow ratios) and cause a change over
to rain for the south and a mix most other places. The quick
moving front pushes through fairly early Monday evening, with some
breaks or a transition to showers. However, some models are
showing a wave or a new low tracking up along the front and making
a new triple point, this would effectively prolong the rain
through Monday night.

The next low pressure system looks to track northward into the
Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday. Models have large differences on the
track and timing of this low (even at the upper levels), from the
eastern side of the gulf (Canadian) to the western gulf (GFS).
There is slightly better agreement that the warm front would
track from south to north over the panhandle sometime Tuesday,
causing greater chances of liquid precip or limited snow
accumulations due to warmer temps. This system will still be in
the gulf on Wednesday, but whether the front will be just offshore
or directly over top of us is still in question. For this reason,
have limited POP to 10-70% for Tuesday onward. We also give a
word of caution to mariners that the wind directions may need to
be adjusted as we pin down different low/front tracks, but did
make a point to increase winds on the inside waters to account for
the fronts.

By the end of next week, models start coming into better agreement
on a low becoming somewhat stationary just south of our offshore
area. This position usually translates to offshore flow and lower
precip potential for the north. Am also seeing downslope warming
show up in the 850mb temps on Thursday. This could be an
inversion...or potential for a very warm spring day, so kept
Thurs/Fri as the warmest days of the week in the forecast.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
     for AKZ018-019-025.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning
     for AKZ017-022-023.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     for AKZ020-021.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ029.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031>034-041>043-051-052.

&&

BFL/Ferrin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
202 PM AKST SAT MAR 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     HEAVY SNOW       8 S WRANGELL            56.36N 132.36W
03/13/2021  M8.3 INCH        WRANGELL           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL FROM 10 PM MARCH 12TH THROUGH 9:15
            AM MARCH 13TH.

0600 AM     HEAVY SNOW       THORNE BAY              55.69N 132.52W
03/13/2021  M9.5 INCH        PRINCE OF WALES-HYDAK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOWFALL FROM APPROXIMATELY 5:40 PM THE 12TH
            TO 6:00 AM THE 13TH.

1015 AM     HEAVY SNOW       KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.70W
03/13/2021  M18.0 INCH       KETCHIKAN GATEWAY  AK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SNOWFALL FROM APPROXIMATELY 5 PM MARCH 12TH
            THROUGH 10:15 AM MARCH 13TH.

1215 PM     HEAVY SNOW       8 NW KETCHIKAN          55.45N 131.81W
03/13/2021  M21.5 INCH       KETCHIKAN GATEWAY  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL FROM APPROXIMATELY 4:00 PM MARCH 12
            THROUGH 12:15 PM MARCH 13. LIGHT SNOW STILL
            FALLING, BUT NOT SUBSTANTIALLY ACCUMULATING.

&&