Small Craft Advisory 147, NWS Juneau, AK

985 
FZAK53 PAJK 102337
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
237 PM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-111745-
Yakutat Bay-
237 PM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SW late. Gusts to 35 kt in the 
evening. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow in the evening, then rain 
showers and snow showers late. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft. S swell. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 9 ft.
S swell. Snow showers in the evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft. 

$$

687 
FZAK53 PAJK 111239
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-120645-
Yakutat Bay-
339 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming E 15 kt late. Seas 9 ft. SW
swell. Snow showers in the evening. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

315 
FZAK53 PAJK 120027
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-121830-
Yakutat Bay-
327 PM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell in the
evening. Freezing spray late. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of Disenchantment
Bay. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of
Disenchantment Bay. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...Light winds. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

062 
FZAK53 PAJK 121233
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-130645-
Yakutat Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of
Disenchantment Bay. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

492 
FZAK53 PAJK 122313
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
213 PM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-131715-
Yakutat Bay-
213 PM AKST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell in the evening.
Freezing spray late. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 35 kt out of Disenchantment Bay. Seas 6 ft subsiding to
3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Out of Disenchantment Bay, gusts
to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

176 
FZAK53 PAJK 131247
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-140700-
Yakutat Bay-
347 AM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray
early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Out of Disenchantment Bay, gusts to
35 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

292 
FZAK53 PAJK 140006
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-141815-
Yakutat Bay-
306 PM AKST Sat Mar 13 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Out of Disenchantment Bay, gusts to
35 kt in the evening. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft late.
SW swell late. Snow.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Rain and snow 
showers. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 PM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...Not too much has changed in the last 12 hours
regarding the next winter storm as we edge closer to spring.
Most of Southeast experienced another sunny, but seasonably chilly
day with highs in the mid to upper 30s across the north and in the
low 40s over the south. Some residual cloudiness from a stubborn
boundary lying across the southern Inner Channels have supported
cloudiness over Petersburg, Wrangell, and portions of the Prince
of Wales. Also, some higher level marine stratus has entered the
northeast gulf and threatens Pelican, Elfin Cove, and even Sitka
may envelop portions of the coast tonight. Some models indicate
some sprinkles or drizzle or flurries with it, but impacts should
be low, and this was not our focus.

Wednesday, moisture profiles begin to increase from the west and
we fully expect snow to begin in Yakutat at least by Wednesday
afternoon. But temperatures initially should be above freezing by
a few degrees. Snowmelt cooling should lower temperatures fairly
quickly as the front interacts with our dry, polar air mass. These
processes should repeat as moisture spreads eastward into the
northern Panhandle Wednesday night. In March, timing is
everything, and a front carries more weight with snowfall
nocturnally than during the day without the surface. Thicknesses
over the north will be more than sufficient for precipitation to
be all snow Wednesday night. Temperatures at 850, depending on the
model, come in from -7 C to -11 C with the coldest being the NAM.
What caused us to expand the winter storm watch is the MOS numbers
suggesting 6 to 8 inches plus for Yakutat. Haines admittedly is a
stretch but, the possibility is still there such that we included
them in the new advisory, too. For other areas of the north, 1 to
4 inches will do. Gustavus does suffer from a wide spread though.
As mentioned 12 hours earlier, thicknesses come in around 1290 m
across the Panhandle, so we feel fairly confident that snow will
at least mix in with precipitation everywhere. Even Petersburg may
result with a couple of inches.

Thursday, wave track differences prevented much in the way of
improvement to the existing forecast.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday/ A cold
upper trough moving through the area will be the main driver of
the weather through the long range period. The coldest weather is
expected over the weekend as 850 mb temps drop into the negative teens
C across the panhandle (-10C at 850 mb will be seen as far south
as 45N latitude across the NE Pacific with this trough). This cold
trough will not last however and will be pushed off to the east by
an upper ridge come early next week.

At the surface, the long range starts out with the lingering
precip from Wed night's front. Temperatures, at the surface and
aloft, will still be cold enough for snow for most areas through
any snow accumulations will be starting to taper off as
precipitation becomes more convective in nature rather then
stratiform. Timing of the front has not chanced all that much
from yesterday so confidence is higher on this feature than it has
been the last few days.

As for the next system coming in for Fri, guidance is still in
flux. The actual low itself is now aimed more toward the southern
panhandle as the increasingly strong upper trough keeps pushing it
farther and farther E and S. Most of its precipitation and wind
is now aimed at the BC coast rather then the southern panhandle,
though some will still hit the southern panhandle (will need to
watch the Hyder area as depending on temperature they could get a
significant amount of snow or they could get mostly rain).
However, there is still some guidance that is suggesting that
some of the heavier precip may get pulled farther north ahead of
the low and pass through the Central Panhandle as a result.
Confidence is not great on this as it is only a few models that
are even suggesting it. Overall, the trend with this system is
lower precip amounts (and thus lower snow amounts) across the
central panhandle, and lower winds across the southern half of the
panhandle as well.

Into the late weekend and early next week, indications are for
another weak to moderate outflow event with high pressure again
building into the southern Yukon. Winds in the northern inner
channels increased for Sun as a result (to 25 kt in Lynn Canal).
The panhandle will also be drying out as offshore flow increases.
Timing is not yet set in stone however so forecast confidence for
this feature is not that great yet.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for AKZ017-019-025.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041-043-051.

&&

JWA/EAL

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