Gale Warning 107, NWS Juneau, AK

377 
FZAK52 PAJK 101627 CCA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
727 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-110645-
727 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front enters the central gulf Wednesday and reaches 
the Panhandle Wednesday evening. On Thursday, a low pressure 
system brings strong winds to Clarence Straight. 

$$

PKZ041-110645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
727 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-110645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
727 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W late. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-110645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
727 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell in
the morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-110645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
727 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-110645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
727 AM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow in
the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 18 ft late. Rain
late. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

182 
FZAK52 PAJK 102335
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
235 PM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-111745-
235 PM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front reaches the Panhandle Wednesday evening. On 
Friday, a low approaches the southern Panhandle. 

$$

PKZ041-111745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
235 PM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-111745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
235 PM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-111745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
235 PM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain early in the evening. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-111745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
235 PM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW. Seas 12 ft building to 16 
ft late. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-111745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
235 PM AKST Wed Mar 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SW. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft
late. Rain in the evening. Rain showers late. 
.THU...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 12 ft. SW
swell. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

417 
FZAK52 PAJK 111642 AAA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-120645-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A surface low tracks from Cordova southeast towards  the
Panhandle. It remains offshore on Friday resulting in strong 
offshore and northerly winds in the northern Panhandle. On 
Saturday, a low approaches the southern Panhandle.  

$$

PKZ041-120645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-120645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-120645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-120645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-120645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
338 AM AKST Thu Mar 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell in the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 PM AKST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...Not too much has changed in the last 12 hours
regarding the next winter storm as we edge closer to spring.
Most of Southeast experienced another sunny, but seasonably chilly
day with highs in the mid to upper 30s across the north and in the
low 40s over the south. Some residual cloudiness from a stubborn
boundary lying across the southern Inner Channels have supported
cloudiness over Petersburg, Wrangell, and portions of the Prince
of Wales. Also, some higher level marine stratus has entered the
northeast gulf and threatens Pelican, Elfin Cove, and even Sitka
may envelop portions of the coast tonight. Some models indicate
some sprinkles or drizzle or flurries with it, but impacts should
be low, and this was not our focus.

Wednesday, moisture profiles begin to increase from the west and
we fully expect snow to begin in Yakutat at least by Wednesday
afternoon. But temperatures initially should be above freezing by
a few degrees. Snowmelt cooling should lower temperatures fairly
quickly as the front interacts with our dry, polar air mass. These
processes should repeat as moisture spreads eastward into the
northern Panhandle Wednesday night. In March, timing is
everything, and a front carries more weight with snowfall
nocturnally than during the day without the surface. Thicknesses
over the north will be more than sufficient for precipitation to
be all snow Wednesday night. Temperatures at 850, depending on the
model, come in from -7 C to -11 C with the coldest being the NAM.
What caused us to expand the winter storm watch is the MOS numbers
suggesting 6 to 8 inches plus for Yakutat. Haines admittedly is a
stretch but, the possibility is still there such that we included
them in the new advisory, too. For other areas of the north, 1 to
4 inches will do. Gustavus does suffer from a wide spread though.
As mentioned 12 hours earlier, thicknesses come in around 1290 m
across the Panhandle, so we feel fairly confident that snow will
at least mix in with precipitation everywhere. Even Petersburg may
result with a couple of inches.

Thursday, wave track differences prevented much in the way of
improvement to the existing forecast.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday/ A cold
upper trough moving through the area will be the main driver of
the weather through the long range period. The coldest weather is
expected over the weekend as 850 mb temps drop into the negative teens
C across the panhandle (-10C at 850 mb will be seen as far south
as 45N latitude across the NE Pacific with this trough). This cold
trough will not last however and will be pushed off to the east by
an upper ridge come early next week.

At the surface, the long range starts out with the lingering
precip from Wed night's front. Temperatures, at the surface and
aloft, will still be cold enough for snow for most areas through
any snow accumulations will be starting to taper off as
precipitation becomes more convective in nature rather then
stratiform. Timing of the front has not chanced all that much
from yesterday so confidence is higher on this feature than it has
been the last few days.

As for the next system coming in for Fri, guidance is still in
flux. The actual low itself is now aimed more toward the southern
panhandle as the increasingly strong upper trough keeps pushing it
farther and farther E and S. Most of its precipitation and wind
is now aimed at the BC coast rather then the southern panhandle,
though some will still hit the southern panhandle (will need to
watch the Hyder area as depending on temperature they could get a
significant amount of snow or they could get mostly rain).
However, there is still some guidance that is suggesting that
some of the heavier precip may get pulled farther north ahead of
the low and pass through the Central Panhandle as a result.
Confidence is not great on this as it is only a few models that
are even suggesting it. Overall, the trend with this system is
lower precip amounts (and thus lower snow amounts) across the
central panhandle, and lower winds across the southern half of the
panhandle as well.

Into the late weekend and early next week, indications are for
another weak to moderate outflow event with high pressure again
building into the southern Yukon. Winds in the northern inner
channels increased for Sun as a result (to 25 kt in Lynn Canal).
The panhandle will also be drying out as offshore flow increases.
Timing is not yet set in stone however so forecast confidence for
this feature is not that great yet.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for AKZ017-019-025.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041-043-051.

&&

JWA/EAL

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